Most definitely, I will be making other bets as well and might even double my position on Alabama.
This will be the first time I have bet Alabama in any championship except for one year I think. Its been all orange being bet, or Georgia last year.
For me, Tua and Kyler Murray of Oklahoma and their coaches represent for me, the kind of leaders I want to cheer for on the field and on the sideline. I like Dabo too but I have to tip my hat to him for another undefeated season, for looking for the right decision in his QB carousel and for him sticking up for his players under suspicion for enhancement.
Georgia is proving why they should not be there and if the Buckeyes could have some gone undefeated, I believe they could have beaten Clemson with Haskins at QB......and then played Bama in the final. They have the athletes on offense for it but not so much on defense maybe, although when motivated, they could play to anyone's level and that was their downfall....lack of focus to make their season special like Dabo had instilled with his players in some tight games themselves, namely with TAM and CUSE.
The right 2 teams are here but when you break it down, the talent at QB with the receiver packages, the defense on the line and secondary and the RBs involved clearly put Bama at least a TD better than Clemson and it will play out that way, barring some lack of focus or miracles of bizarre plays. And I am saying this, even if Clemson gets back all their players which I suspect they will.....
I will break this down as I go through the week and am working on some aspects like props. There is a humongous factor to consider in this game and I will keep it under my hat for a little while until I get my bets in on these props or sides like the total on the game, the half, etc.
The bottom line is, I am not done betting and I see opportunity all over the place with this game. I have offered my first bet above.
My next post will tell you why you should not bet Clemson with any confidence
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Most definitely, I will be making other bets as well and might even double my position on Alabama.
This will be the first time I have bet Alabama in any championship except for one year I think. Its been all orange being bet, or Georgia last year.
For me, Tua and Kyler Murray of Oklahoma and their coaches represent for me, the kind of leaders I want to cheer for on the field and on the sideline. I like Dabo too but I have to tip my hat to him for another undefeated season, for looking for the right decision in his QB carousel and for him sticking up for his players under suspicion for enhancement.
Georgia is proving why they should not be there and if the Buckeyes could have some gone undefeated, I believe they could have beaten Clemson with Haskins at QB......and then played Bama in the final. They have the athletes on offense for it but not so much on defense maybe, although when motivated, they could play to anyone's level and that was their downfall....lack of focus to make their season special like Dabo had instilled with his players in some tight games themselves, namely with TAM and CUSE.
The right 2 teams are here but when you break it down, the talent at QB with the receiver packages, the defense on the line and secondary and the RBs involved clearly put Bama at least a TD better than Clemson and it will play out that way, barring some lack of focus or miracles of bizarre plays. And I am saying this, even if Clemson gets back all their players which I suspect they will.....
I will break this down as I go through the week and am working on some aspects like props. There is a humongous factor to consider in this game and I will keep it under my hat for a little while until I get my bets in on these props or sides like the total on the game, the half, etc.
The bottom line is, I am not done betting and I see opportunity all over the place with this game. I have offered my first bet above.
My next post will tell you why you should not bet Clemson with any confidence
Why Clemson likely won't cover based on their team:
1. I don't think their defense is the best they ever had, yet this is likely the greatest offensive package Bama has ever had
2. Trevor Lawrence is not Deshaun Watson, and I think that beanpole will not get a chance to use his arm when needed....coming back /trying to hang with Bama moving the ball down the field....yes he is accurate and yes he has some fine receivers but he better have his set of WR or TE win some one on one battles when Bama collapses the pocket or pushes him outside.....Lawrence can throw the accurate short passes no doubt to Renfrew....but can he sustain his own health/hits he will absorb on these long drives? Can he be flawless on a 6 minute drive vs this defense, time in and time out almost every drive to hang with Bama?
3, Rate the 4 best QBs in the SEC......bet you won't put Mond or Bentley in there and they threw for 430 and 510 yds on Clemson's dee.....what's Tua going to do and none of those teams have the RBs Tua has at the ready to leave the line guessing if its a run or play-action
4. What happens if Beanpole gets hurt? Who is up next that could guide Clemson through this rabid/aggressive defensive minefield that Bama is ......and I rate the chances of Beanpole getting injured to be very high
I won't discuss the greatness of Bama at their positions but honestly, please name some weaknesses that Bama has and then convince they are greater than Clemson's in this matchup.....almost 1000 yds to maybe the 5th and 8th best passers in the SEC?
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Why Clemson likely won't cover based on their team:
1. I don't think their defense is the best they ever had, yet this is likely the greatest offensive package Bama has ever had
2. Trevor Lawrence is not Deshaun Watson, and I think that beanpole will not get a chance to use his arm when needed....coming back /trying to hang with Bama moving the ball down the field....yes he is accurate and yes he has some fine receivers but he better have his set of WR or TE win some one on one battles when Bama collapses the pocket or pushes him outside.....Lawrence can throw the accurate short passes no doubt to Renfrew....but can he sustain his own health/hits he will absorb on these long drives? Can he be flawless on a 6 minute drive vs this defense, time in and time out almost every drive to hang with Bama?
3, Rate the 4 best QBs in the SEC......bet you won't put Mond or Bentley in there and they threw for 430 and 510 yds on Clemson's dee.....what's Tua going to do and none of those teams have the RBs Tua has at the ready to leave the line guessing if its a run or play-action
4. What happens if Beanpole gets hurt? Who is up next that could guide Clemson through this rabid/aggressive defensive minefield that Bama is ......and I rate the chances of Beanpole getting injured to be very high
I won't discuss the greatness of Bama at their positions but honestly, please name some weaknesses that Bama has and then convince they are greater than Clemson's in this matchup.....almost 1000 yds to maybe the 5th and 8th best passers in the SEC?
Ya Hoo....too much to say, so I have to create a thread. I am holding back as I conduct some more research on an angle. So are you playing an Under on something and if you are, I get 2 guesses....haha
Its been a so-so year for me and I honestly find that I can't cap for the lack of motivation in a lot of games this year. Maybe I got lazy and did not find the motivated side in many instances to propel my record to positive Units like most years.
One thing for certain is, a community of good cappers is needed with ideas but I see a lot of pea-cocking and less capping analysis more so than ever. So I think going into next year, it will be to cut down the number of games and zero in on the motivation of zing 1-3 games rather than 7-10.....kind of like in the spirit of Syracuse Joe....one of my faves for sure!
This game won't lack motivation.....so finding some angles to exploit should be fun.
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Ya Hoo....too much to say, so I have to create a thread. I am holding back as I conduct some more research on an angle. So are you playing an Under on something and if you are, I get 2 guesses....haha
Its been a so-so year for me and I honestly find that I can't cap for the lack of motivation in a lot of games this year. Maybe I got lazy and did not find the motivated side in many instances to propel my record to positive Units like most years.
One thing for certain is, a community of good cappers is needed with ideas but I see a lot of pea-cocking and less capping analysis more so than ever. So I think going into next year, it will be to cut down the number of games and zero in on the motivation of zing 1-3 games rather than 7-10.....kind of like in the spirit of Syracuse Joe....one of my faves for sure!
This game won't lack motivation.....so finding some angles to exploit should be fun.
If the line drops.....got my eye on the first half line as well but am going to wait
So many reasons for this play.....look.....I know Saban does not like running up the score, and he is always concerned with clock in the second half. I truly believe Saban respects Clemson but he has shown what he does whenever he gets a big lead and I don't think he will change his ways......the question is for me as the week goes by and what conditions present themselves, which side are my friend and I going to up.....spread or total, or will we go by half or will we go with team total? I want to book this now before it changes drastically, and it might
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
If the line drops.....got my eye on the first half line as well but am going to wait
So many reasons for this play.....look.....I know Saban does not like running up the score, and he is always concerned with clock in the second half. I truly believe Saban respects Clemson but he has shown what he does whenever he gets a big lead and I don't think he will change his ways......the question is for me as the week goes by and what conditions present themselves, which side are my friend and I going to up.....spread or total, or will we go by half or will we go with team total? I want to book this now before it changes drastically, and it might
I have Clemson Under or exactly 3 TDs and if they score 3, one will be a Defensive TD.....I have them under 3 FGs.....since hitting FGs will not cut it trying to hang with Bama and the footing at Levi is not good enough to hit really long FGs for a college kicker.......I see 27 pts scored at most and I doubt they will go over 24 pts
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
I have Clemson Under or exactly 3 TDs and if they score 3, one will be a Defensive TD.....I have them under 3 FGs.....since hitting FGs will not cut it trying to hang with Bama and the footing at Levi is not good enough to hit really long FGs for a college kicker.......I see 27 pts scored at most and I doubt they will go over 24 pts
Play # 5 Will Either Team Score 3 Times Unanswered NO +200
(2 Units) $150....
Not in this game with so much focus and on the line....Lawrence, Renfro, WR package and Etienne are good enough to get one drive out of 3-4 to go for a FG or TD .....I know Tua will move the ball on that Secondary.....using a uptempo offense, Clemson should be able to get the ball down the field if needed and not let Bama pull away...besides, Saban usually goes to run after 2 score lead, especially with poor field conditions that might crop up in this game
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Play # 5 Will Either Team Score 3 Times Unanswered NO +200
(2 Units) $150....
Not in this game with so much focus and on the line....Lawrence, Renfro, WR package and Etienne are good enough to get one drive out of 3-4 to go for a FG or TD .....I know Tua will move the ball on that Secondary.....using a uptempo offense, Clemson should be able to get the ball down the field if needed and not let Bama pull away...besides, Saban usually goes to run after 2 score lead, especially with poor field conditions that might crop up in this game
33 Units booked.....room for at least another 25-30 more and if nothing much grabs me with changes to props or lines....silent partner and I are likely going to pounce on ML as well. We are combining over 4000 on these plays together and might even go a little higher
ML stuck on -235 for now....or about lay 2350 to earn $1000 profit is still not bad....lets see if Clemson takes money and brings this down
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
33 Units booked.....room for at least another 25-30 more and if nothing much grabs me with changes to props or lines....silent partner and I are likely going to pounce on ML as well. We are combining over 4000 on these plays together and might even go a little higher
ML stuck on -235 for now....or about lay 2350 to earn $1000 profit is still not bad....lets see if Clemson takes money and brings this down
Looking to earn $$$ +fun.....slightly down NCAAF reg season....have made a little on bowls....nothing to get excited about, but have a real nice profit gain on NCAAB so we might utilize that....original 5K from fall is intact plus gains....stayed away from NFL reg season too which was smart....doing ok in NBA playing the Raps and overs
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Looking to earn $$$ +fun.....slightly down NCAAF reg season....have made a little on bowls....nothing to get excited about, but have a real nice profit gain on NCAAB so we might utilize that....original 5K from fall is intact plus gains....stayed away from NFL reg season too which was smart....doing ok in NBA playing the Raps and overs
In the four years of the CFP Campionship, the favored team is 0-4 ATS and only 2-2 straight up.
Didn't consider that but its a good point. Lets be honest, there are tons of Bama fans who throw money at their team regardless but Clemson has their followers too and this line is set for 2 yrs of excitement built up now......
I think you have to handicap it based on matchups, coaching and motivation.
Bama is superior in this regard and I certainly expect one of the most motivated games for them this year. Time for Vegas to cash on the ATS the other way is maybe the way you might want to think is how they set up their line? They are telling us that Clemson is legitimately able to hang with Clemson....I don't think they can for 60 minutes and whats the fallback when Lawrence gets knocked out?
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
In the four years of the CFP Campionship, the favored team is 0-4 ATS and only 2-2 straight up.
Didn't consider that but its a good point. Lets be honest, there are tons of Bama fans who throw money at their team regardless but Clemson has their followers too and this line is set for 2 yrs of excitement built up now......
I think you have to handicap it based on matchups, coaching and motivation.
Bama is superior in this regard and I certainly expect one of the most motivated games for them this year. Time for Vegas to cash on the ATS the other way is maybe the way you might want to think is how they set up their line? They are telling us that Clemson is legitimately able to hang with Clemson....I don't think they can for 60 minutes and whats the fallback when Lawrence gets knocked out?
2 yrs ago.....Clemson was equal to Bama's defense and DeShaun Watson was much better.
I am not advising anyone to do like I do....just putting myself on the line because I think I have something to share. If you go with Clemson and win, please come back on here and I will congratulate you.....I set $5000 aside this yr for football and college basketball and I am up about $1500 on that total....so the most I will lose here is about $2500 max since I am spliitting with someone else....
BOL
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
2 yrs ago.....Clemson was equal to Bama's defense and DeShaun Watson was much better.
I am not advising anyone to do like I do....just putting myself on the line because I think I have something to share. If you go with Clemson and win, please come back on here and I will congratulate you.....I set $5000 aside this yr for football and college basketball and I am up about $1500 on that total....so the most I will lose here is about $2500 max since I am spliitting with someone else....
Will this line drop even more? Should I wait to lay my $2000 ML bet on Bama?
It would be nice to get $1000 for $2000 lay....gonna wait a little longer
I am not convince this money is Clemson money that is moving the line except maybe one very influential punter who is a Sharp but I would bet most Sharps are on the Under on Bama ML.....less on the spread. I am counting on a big game from Tua and Harris along with that dee.....best Bama receiving group in a while in my opinion.....same for Clemson....but will beanpole get off his throws down field with accuracy? I doubt it
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Will this line drop even more? Should I wait to lay my $2000 ML bet on Bama?
It would be nice to get $1000 for $2000 lay....gonna wait a little longer
I am not convince this money is Clemson money that is moving the line except maybe one very influential punter who is a Sharp but I would bet most Sharps are on the Under on Bama ML.....less on the spread. I am counting on a big game from Tua and Harris along with that dee.....best Bama receiving group in a while in my opinion.....same for Clemson....but will beanpole get off his throws down field with accuracy? I doubt it
The same things were said two years ago. Bama was a 6pt favorite.
I think this one plays out the same. It will come me down to a FG either side.
2 years ago ALA was a run first offense. Not so this year with TUA running the show. It was a different team CLEM saw 2 years ago and last year. CLEM will see a totally different offense, especially doing what ALA does best, passing the ball.
The weakest link in CLEM's defense is their pass defense. TX AM passed for 430 yds and 3 TDs. S. CAR passed for 510 yds and 5 TDs. Neither is in the same class passing the ball when compared to ALA. It will be interesting to see the mindset CLEM show up with knowing they could not slow down 2 SEC teams passing the ball.
The same things were said two years ago. Bama was a 6pt favorite.
I think this one plays out the same. It will come me down to a FG either side.
2 years ago ALA was a run first offense. Not so this year with TUA running the show. It was a different team CLEM saw 2 years ago and last year. CLEM will see a totally different offense, especially doing what ALA does best, passing the ball.
The weakest link in CLEM's defense is their pass defense. TX AM passed for 430 yds and 3 TDs. S. CAR passed for 510 yds and 5 TDs. Neither is in the same class passing the ball when compared to ALA. It will be interesting to see the mindset CLEM show up with knowing they could not slow down 2 SEC teams passing the ball.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.