There was one bigger but only one: Miami came to Piscataway back in 2002 and laid 40 to RU. They did not cover winning 42-17. I watched that game. Miami went through the motions, still crushed them, and RU had some fortunate turnover and kickoff luck to score.
Why the late post? I live next to the stadium and I wanted to see two things on game day:
1) Wind speed (it's not bad so Michigan can throw)
2) A drenched field (it will not be 100% but the turf will be enough for Michigan to run it up as it had dried out enough after yesterday's downpour)
I must say I HATE backing huge favorites any homer can do it, but I have to do when teams are special.
RU is special in that this, for all intents and purposes, is their worst season ever (and I've watched some truly awful RU teams).
Michigan is special in that this is Harbaugh's "Time to pay the piper" year (i.e., we brought you here to win a title so when is is going to happen). Harbaugh knows this. Harbaugh, if he wins out, is in position to do exactly that. And yes, a CFB playoff spot will appease the fan base for now.
It is clear that RU is showing MORE on the field as big dogs despite their eventual 1-11 record, covering 30 @ WIsky, 20 vs. Northwestern and 14.5 vs. Indiana. So RU has been paying the better ATS, MUCH better.
That is exactly what explains this line opening at 40 in some places and dropping to 38. While the public bets Michigan, it's clear sharps believe this is yet another spot to collect money betting RU.
That can be a mistake. Why?
The bottom line is this:
1) Harbaugh is on a revenge tour crushing Penn State, Wisconsin, and beating Michigan state, all teams that beat him last year and he paid them back in a big way with an A++ D and an offense that can score. So this is a very powerful determined Michigan team vs. RU's worst ever.
2) I don't see how RU will score. If they can't score, they can't cover a number like this, even this large.
What troubles me about the full game number is that Harbaugh admitted 2 years ago that he came off the gas in the second half in the 78-0 beating. He literally just wanted to run the clock and RU was so bad they couldn't even tackle the RB's to stop the bleeding.
But now things are a bit different. Harbaugh will demand a mass destruction (a shutout will be the most preferable and this team can easily drop 42 on RU even on the road).
The thinking is simple, get this all done in the first half.
Go up 14-0 on the first two drives and then we only need a TD and FG in the second Quarter. This puts RU to bed and allows Harbaugh to look ahead to OSU and Indiana.
Put pressure in Sitkowski's face (this team will be the best that can do it) and they can go 3 and out in 1 minute.
BUT when you lay 40 on the road you need to play perfect (NO TURNOVERS) and even the best are not immune to that.
So the bet is light but we'll attempt to collect something (2 units for such a huge first half spread)
MICHIGAN -22.5 over RU 1st HALF