My sweet spot of power home dogs in competitively priced games is slim pickin's this week without dipping down to the Tier 2 level.Only ones on the card are Ariz St +2.5, Mich St +7, TCU +7.5, & Ol' Miss +3.5. It will take a bucket load of b%lls to back any of them. Sparty looks like the best option. Lots of double digit spreads so we will have to adapt this week.
3* Mizzu -8 to Memphis. See write up in earlier thread. The short of it is backing the SEC pedigree against AAC Memphis coming off their "come from ahead to lose" giveaway in what was their Super Bowl on National tv and Missouri needing this game to have any shot of going to a bowl.
2* Indiana-Penn St over 60.5 Hoosiers have faced 3 Big 10 opponents. Conservative grind it out Sparty scored 35. A disinterested Olieo St scored when they decided to and hung a 49 on them. Hawkeyes just followed suit. After Iowa pounded the rock early on them last week for a qtr they did whatever they wanted to after that. Nate Stanley literally torched the Hoosier secondary for 6 td's. Bottom line is Indiana is to light in the azz on the defensive front. Soft against the run so they need db's for run support. No pressure on the passer. This makes the secondary burnable. Not a good combination. Must also note the Hoosiers are probably fairly beat up after facing some really physical teams.
I'm not a fan of James Franklin at all. Strategical blunders aside he does have a lot of talent at his disposal. He has also demonstrated a bully mentality and won't hesitate to bully a weaker opponent when the situation arises. The Nittanies can take out their frustrations here. Franklin wants the votes in the polls and this is a good place to get them. QB McSorley should have a big day. Wouldn't surprise me if Penn St approaches the total themselves so TT probably worth a look as well but we will just focus on the game total for now. Hoosiers passing game is decent so they should put some points on the board as well.
Will consider taking Penn St as a side but damn I hate laying that much chalk, especially on the road. We will see where the # goes.
My sweet spot of power home dogs in competitively priced games is slim pickin's this week without dipping down to the Tier 2 level.Only ones on the card are Ariz St +2.5, Mich St +7, TCU +7.5, & Ol' Miss +3.5. It will take a bucket load of b%lls to back any of them. Sparty looks like the best option. Lots of double digit spreads so we will have to adapt this week.
3* Mizzu -8 to Memphis. See write up in earlier thread. The short of it is backing the SEC pedigree against AAC Memphis coming off their "come from ahead to lose" giveaway in what was their Super Bowl on National tv and Missouri needing this game to have any shot of going to a bowl.
2* Indiana-Penn St over 60.5 Hoosiers have faced 3 Big 10 opponents. Conservative grind it out Sparty scored 35. A disinterested Olieo St scored when they decided to and hung a 49 on them. Hawkeyes just followed suit. After Iowa pounded the rock early on them last week for a qtr they did whatever they wanted to after that. Nate Stanley literally torched the Hoosier secondary for 6 td's. Bottom line is Indiana is to light in the azz on the defensive front. Soft against the run so they need db's for run support. No pressure on the passer. This makes the secondary burnable. Not a good combination. Must also note the Hoosiers are probably fairly beat up after facing some really physical teams.
I'm not a fan of James Franklin at all. Strategical blunders aside he does have a lot of talent at his disposal. He has also demonstrated a bully mentality and won't hesitate to bully a weaker opponent when the situation arises. The Nittanies can take out their frustrations here. Franklin wants the votes in the polls and this is a good place to get them. QB McSorley should have a big day. Wouldn't surprise me if Penn St approaches the total themselves so TT probably worth a look as well but we will just focus on the game total for now. Hoosiers passing game is decent so they should put some points on the board as well.
Will consider taking Penn St as a side but damn I hate laying that much chalk, especially on the road. We will see where the # goes.
I don't like eating this much chalk on the road but this weeks slate is tough. So I will lay the points with the Bulldogs. Only loss for Fresno was by 7 at Minnesota and they held the Big 10 Gophers to 21. Dawgs have a real solid D. Won @UCLA 38-14, smoked Toledo 49-27, held Nevada and Wyoming to 3 in easy victories. The St offense is explosive with big play potential at any time. Look for them to score early and often against a weak NM D. Solid rush attack to set up the passing game which features some speedy receivers. They have lots of speed on both sides of the ball. Well coached and disciplined team.
Not much to say about the Lobos. They lost to Liberty at home giving up 43.Think their Pistol O misfires against the stout Dawg D.
I don't like eating this much chalk on the road but this weeks slate is tough. So I will lay the points with the Bulldogs. Only loss for Fresno was by 7 at Minnesota and they held the Big 10 Gophers to 21. Dawgs have a real solid D. Won @UCLA 38-14, smoked Toledo 49-27, held Nevada and Wyoming to 3 in easy victories. The St offense is explosive with big play potential at any time. Look for them to score early and often against a weak NM D. Solid rush attack to set up the passing game which features some speedy receivers. They have lots of speed on both sides of the ball. Well coached and disciplined team.
Not much to say about the Lobos. They lost to Liberty at home giving up 43.Think their Pistol O misfires against the stout Dawg D.
Utah has rounded into form and look like the best team in the PAC 12 South now. They need this game to tie USC in the standings.
Granted, the Trojans have the most blue chip personnel in this match. Which is why I had them against the Buffs. Knowing Colorado was a mirage because they hadn't played anybody. USC was in control of CU throughout but they did not play well. Maybe I should say they did not play to the level they should have. They remain an undisciplined bunch, 13 more penalties. Poor execution at times. Lose focus and take plays off. Just can't trust Helton's in game decisions or his ability to get the max effort out of his team. And now they go on the road into a hostile environment.
USC may have the talent edge on paper but Whittingham has good talent and he gets the most out of it. Utes disciplined and a very physical team and have depth. Their D is a rough hard nosed bunch. Some mean Somoans across that front. I like the aggressive blitzing scheme. Offense is clicking and in rhythm now. Hundley is a good dual threat and his passing has improved.
One thing for sure you will get with the Utes is max effort. Same can't be said for the Trojans. Coaching edge to Wittingham. Jacked up and raucous home crowd in SLC led by the Crazy Lady. Give me the Utes.
Utah has rounded into form and look like the best team in the PAC 12 South now. They need this game to tie USC in the standings.
Granted, the Trojans have the most blue chip personnel in this match. Which is why I had them against the Buffs. Knowing Colorado was a mirage because they hadn't played anybody. USC was in control of CU throughout but they did not play well. Maybe I should say they did not play to the level they should have. They remain an undisciplined bunch, 13 more penalties. Poor execution at times. Lose focus and take plays off. Just can't trust Helton's in game decisions or his ability to get the max effort out of his team. And now they go on the road into a hostile environment.
USC may have the talent edge on paper but Whittingham has good talent and he gets the most out of it. Utes disciplined and a very physical team and have depth. Their D is a rough hard nosed bunch. Some mean Somoans across that front. I like the aggressive blitzing scheme. Offense is clicking and in rhythm now. Hundley is a good dual threat and his passing has improved.
One thing for sure you will get with the Utes is max effort. Same can't be said for the Trojans. Coaching edge to Wittingham. Jacked up and raucous home crowd in SLC led by the Crazy Lady. Give me the Utes.
Interesting trend: USC is 1-11 ats last 12 as a dog
I understand that is history and some of the players that were involved in that streak won't even be on the field at game time. Also understand that the fundamental matchups on the field during the game will decide the outcome not history. But it does CLEARLY point out that Sunny Cal has UNDERACHIEVED under Helton's direction.
Interesting trend: USC is 1-11 ats last 12 as a dog
I understand that is history and some of the players that were involved in that streak won't even be on the field at game time. Also understand that the fundamental matchups on the field during the game will decide the outcome not history. But it does CLEARLY point out that Sunny Cal has UNDERACHIEVED under Helton's direction.
1* Temple -3 to Cincy. Rare to see a 3 loss team as chalk against an unbeaten team. Give me the Owls in an upset.
1* Michigan St +7.5 to Michigan. St has dominated this series last 10 games. Like the St run D to shut down Jimmy's power rush attack. Should be the usual slugfest. Wolverines barely survived at NW on the road and now laying over a td at East Lansing in a heated rivalry. Points worth taking. Crazy sh%t has happened in this rivalry. Outright upset not a shocker.
1* TCU +8 to Oklahoma. This is my Show 'Em Your Nuts Play. Did new DC McNiel solve the Sooners defensive woes during the bye week? Not unless they really worked on some tackling drills. TCU offense has looked bad and has had turnover issues for sure. But TCU stop unit has been stellar as usual. I think we get the TCU performance that had Olieo St on the ropes today. IF Horned Frogs take care of the ball they are in this the whole way, that's the gamble. Horned Frogs can save their season here. I'll take Patterson + the points at home any day.
1+ Auburn -3.5 @ Ol' Miss. Is there a worse secondary than the Rebels? That should cure Auburns offensive woes. Ol' Miss D is just to soft. Qb Stidham has a big day and and the Tiger D stiffens and contains previously explosive Rebel offense. Tigers need this game to go bowling. Huh? Auburn has been disappointing and rumors are flying on the Plains. Auburn simply has too much talent to lose this game. If Gus doesn't win this one he is in deep doo doo.
1* Temple -3 to Cincy. Rare to see a 3 loss team as chalk against an unbeaten team. Give me the Owls in an upset.
1* Michigan St +7.5 to Michigan. St has dominated this series last 10 games. Like the St run D to shut down Jimmy's power rush attack. Should be the usual slugfest. Wolverines barely survived at NW on the road and now laying over a td at East Lansing in a heated rivalry. Points worth taking. Crazy sh%t has happened in this rivalry. Outright upset not a shocker.
1* TCU +8 to Oklahoma. This is my Show 'Em Your Nuts Play. Did new DC McNiel solve the Sooners defensive woes during the bye week? Not unless they really worked on some tackling drills. TCU offense has looked bad and has had turnover issues for sure. But TCU stop unit has been stellar as usual. I think we get the TCU performance that had Olieo St on the ropes today. IF Horned Frogs take care of the ball they are in this the whole way, that's the gamble. Horned Frogs can save their season here. I'll take Patterson + the points at home any day.
1+ Auburn -3.5 @ Ol' Miss. Is there a worse secondary than the Rebels? That should cure Auburns offensive woes. Ol' Miss D is just to soft. Qb Stidham has a big day and and the Tiger D stiffens and contains previously explosive Rebel offense. Tigers need this game to go bowling. Huh? Auburn has been disappointing and rumors are flying on the Plains. Auburn simply has too much talent to lose this game. If Gus doesn't win this one he is in deep doo doo.
I think you’re spot on with the New Mexico analysis, the only way the lobos keep this close is if they keep Fresno States offense off the field. IF they don’t this one can get ugly real quick
I think you’re spot on with the New Mexico analysis, the only way the lobos keep this close is if they keep Fresno States offense off the field. IF they don’t this one can get ugly real quick
I don't see where people think Temple is going to win this. Cincy is going to come out firing to stay unbeaten. Cincy has better run game, better QB, and better D.
I don't see where people think Temple is going to win this. Cincy is going to come out firing to stay unbeaten. Cincy has better run game, better QB, and better D.
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