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Washington -3 @ Oregon

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Washington -3 @ Oregon
THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/9/2018 2:57:31 PM
 I've been almost perfectly wrong in predicting the Huskies ATS so far, so take this with a grain or two........

 This is just a horrible situation for Washington. This is their 7th straight game to start the season, their 4th roadie of the year so far, & the 2nd of B2B roadies (@ UCLA last week), while Oregon will be playing their 5th home game out of 6.........& coming off a bye. Going back to 1988, Washington is 0-6 SU @ Oregon when coming off of a roadie..........& Oregon is playing on the double-revenge angle after getting blown out in the L2 meetings by a score of 108-24.

 The Ducks have, on paper, one of the top offenses in P5, a respectable defense, & SHOULD be 6-0, save for the debacle vs Stanford. But, other than Stanford, they haven't played anyone of note..........Cal is the only other P5 team they've played (only game they've covered ATS). The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country, both scoring & yardage-wise, a balanced offense, & have played 5/6 P5 teams so far (if you include BYU, & since they knocked off Wisky in Camp Randall, I will), which means I'm willing to lend more credence to their stats.

 The Huskies health is in question. Anyone who watched the UCLA game last undoubtedly saw Myles Gaskin favoring what appeared to be at least a stinger in his right shoulder late in the game. He gutted it out (incredibly) but it was obvious, even to the point where he was carrying the ball in his off arm. The C Harris limped off but came back briefly. There are some others nicked up. You won't see any of this in the injury report.

 This is a nasty rivalry & the home team always has a decided advantage. I give the Huskies a decided edge in the coaching dept., but they'll have to weather the storm of emotion early on @ Autzen. I wouldn't be surprised if they're down at the half.

 Oregon, getting 3 at home in this situation, seems like the obvious play.........but I'm not making that call just yet........leaning towards the over for now.

 Open for discussion.......
Winston704 PM Winston704
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Posted: 10/9/2018 3:57:03 PM
I live in Oregon and these two teams and schools have a visceral hate for each other. It's the NW version of Auburn Alabama, that being said I am staying away from this game although I have taken the Huskies the last two years. If HC Christobal has made this a tougher Duck team physically they can win but the last two years Washington has physically dominated Oregon.
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 10/9/2018 4:30:47 PM
Well done MUGG...   that is why we keep you on the payroll   
PAPAWFRANK PM PAPAWFRANK
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Posted: 10/9/2018 6:23:35 PM
its one of my top picks the pick is the OREGON DUCK THEY WIN OUTRIGHT
FunKyRufus PM FunKyRufus
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Posted: 10/11/2018 7:49:40 AM
Thanks for the informational post Mugg.

Hopefully the Huskies get healed up some. I'm mostly a home dog player. Especially one that has a decent D and a well balanced O with a good passing game to get back in it if they get behind early. Which Oregon has.                                                                                          But I lean to the Huskies here. UW has really pushed Oregon around the last 2 years. I just don't think the Ducks have closed that physicality gap just yet. When Stanford had to have the stops against Oregon late, they got them. The Husky D is better than the Tree D. 
 I see UW trying to control the ball and the clock with the punishing ground game and short quick passes. A move the chains attack to limit Oregon's oppurtunities and rest the D. Jake has been inconsistent at times but I believe he rises to the occasion here in the big game. He is due and can silence his critics here.
 To me Oregon is a lot like Colorado, only played one good team so far. UW needs this game to keep an outside shot at the playoffs alive. 
 Huskies -3 or pass for me. Bolty. 

Cdvwolves PM Cdvwolves
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Posted: 10/11/2018 8:02:28 AM
ArtSchlichterJr PM ArtSchlichterJr
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Posted: 10/11/2018 8:19:15 AM

IMO QB for Oregon is a future 1st round pick..  Love his game ..  Any time he gets points is a play for me..  He has all the tools ..  peace_5

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 10/11/2018 9:42:46 AM
Do you like the Over ?
stormrider PM stormrider
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Posted: 10/11/2018 11:18:47 AM
I don't see anyone slowing down Herbert if Cristobal unleashes him, even UW. There is big advantage at the QB position for the ducks. 
THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/11/2018 5:19:23 PM
QUOTE
Originally Posted by stormrider:

I don't see anyone slowing down Herbert if Cristobal unleashes him, even UW. There is big advantage at the QB position for the ducks. 
 Herbert is the better qb here, but I wouldn't call it a BIG advantage for UO. Browning isn't exactly chopped liver. He has faced, by far, a tougher slate of teams than has Herbert this season. If Washington had UO's schedule their stats would be markedly better than they are now. So far (per Sagarin), Washington has played the 27th toughest schedule............Oregon? 137th...........by far the easiest schedule of any P5 team in the country.
THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/11/2018 5:25:34 PM
 Washington has lost two players to medical retirement this week...........DB Austin Joyner, & DL Jared Pulu.

 Joyner has been a factor in the 2ndary for a couple years, & Pulu had just broken through to get PT. Never like to hear this kind of news.
njsupreme1 PM njsupreme1
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Posted: 10/11/2018 7:11:55 PM

Mugg...When I saw this game come up on the schedule this week, I knew I was gonna look forward to your analysis and like every year, you fail to disappoint. Don't care about your record this year because your body of work is excellent. I like many, many others on this site enjoy your takes on UW football and I don't know too many who have a better read on that team than you. I was leaning towards Oregon but this game may end up on my cutting room floor this week; this is a tough game to cap. Oregon has been so good this year and every time I've waited for a big effort from the Huskies, they come up flat. Maybe it is the injuries catching up with a team, I dunno. Loved your take and thanks for sharing it. GL this week.

THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/11/2018 8:48:11 PM
njsupreme

 I'm not sure I can play a side here either. Yes, I'm rooting for the Dawgs, but I don't think it's a game I can play a road fav in. 

TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 10/11/2018 9:00:17 PM
Mugg


Thoughts on the total? Im leaning under.....
Bridge1 PM Bridge1
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Posted: 10/11/2018 9:46:44 PM
Wash looking like a diff team than we're used to ... Not even winning the TFL battle this year dishing 22 giving up 32 or so.. giving up 50% on 3rd down although converting that too.  no crazy punt return action, Oregon has the PR guy this year... And terrible spot like you said roadie to Oregon alone makes it tough enough.. team's gotta be a little worn out...... I'm rolling Ducks. 
Orygunner PM Orygunner
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Posted: 10/11/2018 11:51:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Winston704:

I live in Oregon and these two teams and schools have a visceral hate for each other. It's the NW version of Auburn Alabama, that being said I am staying away from this game although I have taken the Huskies the last two years. If HC Christobal has made this a tougher Duck team physically they can win but the last two years Washington has physically dominated Oregon.


https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/10/11/oregon-washington-mario-cristobal-ducks-offensive-line
WahooS PM WahooS
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Posted: 10/11/2018 11:56:48 PM
Mugg is the man 

Thanks for post west coast brethren 

#pac12livesmatter


MosesGuthrie PM MosesGuthrie
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Posted: 10/12/2018 2:19:18 AM
I'd play Oregon in this spot even if Brooks were the HC.  With Cristobal it's a no play.  Petersen proven.  Cristobal is not. 


Flush1 PM Flush1
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Posted: 10/12/2018 8:55:50 AM
Washington defense is measurably better . Huskies will have an underdog mentality  . Strength of schedule and veteran leadership . 
This version of Ducks are not ready for this imo . The line reflects it .
ceveche88 PM ceveche88
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Posted: 10/12/2018 12:57:27 PM

I agree with the mugg, I feel as though this game is extremely difficult to cap. Some posters said it earlier this week that the huskies were in a clear look ahead spot last week and the unexpected close game is more a result of the situation than the huskies not being a very good team. Normally from a situational standpoint I would be playing the ducks given the home field, the bye week, the points, and the revenge, but it is very clear that Washington has played a much more difficult schedule, and have a great coach to help them get re focused and match the ducks energy. I am coming off my worst capping week in 3 years so I am taking the whole week off, but after the huskies lost week 1 I put a lot of money on them to win the N.C. At 40-1 so I will be cheering for them to win and do not have to care about the points. Good luck to all you guys.

bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 10/12/2018 3:05:37 PM
This is the thread I have been waiting for....well done Mugg. 

I may be the only one here that is not buying the Ducks at all...lost playing Cal against them, with 5 turnovers the difference.

UW D is a wrecking crew. Offense is a question...limited Gaskin hurts and Browning has yet to find an elite rhythm. I still think this is the best team in the PAC by a wide margin.

Maybe an in-game strategy on UW at +money is the way to go here. Wouldn't mind unloading on the Dawgs, but the value has to be right in such a hostile environment. 
THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/12/2018 5:17:22 PM
 Good to see a lot of vets chiming in
 
 I've continued to look for an edge here (beyond the obvious situation that favors oregon), & it's been tough.However.........looking closer at Oregon's offense, much of their damage, as one would expect, was done vs. Bowling Green, Port. St., & San Jose st. In that stretch, Herbert threw 12 of his 15 td passes..........only 3 in the games vs. Tree & Cal. That doesn't mean he isn't that good, it just points to the obvious leap in comp. that, in reality, wasn't that great of a leap..........Stanford's D was decimated late @ ND, & Cal gave them all they wanted.........including 5 TO's. I've also noted that Oregon has given up six TD plays of 20+ yds..........Washington? Zero. In fact the longest TD play the Huskies have given up this year was a 10 yd pass & a 10 yd run in the Auburn game (they did give up two 9 yd TD passes vs. UCLA)..........they just don't get beat long very often. They're 2ndary is good & deep, even with the loss of Joyner this week.

 Washington has maintained a steady, stingy defense vs. a pretty good schedule. None of those teams would be considered offensive juggernauts, but they're decent teams nonetheless (they held Utah, who just laid 40 on Stanford, to 7 pts.........in Utah). On the flip side, they've been balanced enough on offense to not get shut down. Browning has had a decent but not spectacular start, & has managed to hit some long pass plays. Stanford was able to throw for over 300 vs the ducks, & Cal, with no qb mind you, ran for 241 @ about 6 ypr. This bodes well for the balanced Washington offense.

 The start will tell a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if the Huskies get down early..........still........


 I'm taking Washington. Smart? Probably not, situation-wise. But the experience, talent, & coaching edges tip the scales enough for me to believe they'll be on top at the end.

 Washington wins 31-24


 Note..........I like UCLA +7.5 @ Cal........Bruins look like they're starting to get it.

 GLTA

dytide PM dytide
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Posted: 10/12/2018 11:08:33 PM

This is the game I'm most looking forward to watch on Saturday.


good luck to all clover

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 10/12/2018 11:12:18 PM
Like seeing you on the Bruins ....

Maybe your first lean ( the over ) on wash v org is the way to go 


Best of luck brother 
THEMUGG PM THEMUGG
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Posted: 10/12/2018 11:36:59 PM
Good to see you around, Ponyboy.

 Dup.........I certainly am not ruling out the over. I generally cap games clean......not counting on TO's. But you know there will be one or two..........where? who knows. The only reason I would lean under is one, or both, teams trying to control the TOP by running a lot, which I can see Washington having as part of their game plan, at least early on. If it works it could be a lower scoring game. If no TO's? Could also lend to a lower scoring game.

 GL tomorrow gentlemen 
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