Really regret the Arkansas play and the OU play. I knew they were fishy but couldn't resist. Will try to avoid making that type of mistake and trusting my guy a little more...They were last second picks too - could've very easily been a 9-3-1 day.
Really regret the Arkansas play and the OU play. I knew they were fishy but couldn't resist. Will try to avoid making that type of mistake and trusting my guy a little more...They were last second picks too - could've very easily been a 9-3-1 day.
*UGA is 6-1-1 last 8 ATS and 10-1 last 11 ATS on ROAD. MIZZOU is 4-1 ATS last 5 games against UGA.
*UGA won 53-28 last season at home. UGA beat MIZ at MIZ 28-27 in '16.
Georgia jumped out to a huge 42-7 lead last week to MTSU then put it on cruise control in the second half. They received zero resistance - moving down the field running/throwing/chunk plays. They are really clicking. I really like the control Fromm is showing. In his last 2 games combined he is 25-30 for 322, 4 TDs and 1 pick. They're getting the ball in their playmakers hands. Swift has yet to really 'take off' this year - it has really been Holyfield breaking loose. Against a good SC team on the road UGA defense showed why they're great. Eliminated the running game (54 rush yards allowed), forced Bentley to throw underneath (5.9 ypp), keep the playmakers in front and force TO's. They locked down Deebo Samuel (Their #1 player) and made others try to beat them. UGA has been so efficient offensively this year - avg. .687 points/play (7th in NCAAF) while allowing only .175 points/play (11th).
I see their game with Mizzou going much the same.
Mizzou's offense has been explosive as expected. Lock is racking up yards (#4 ypg) as expected and spreading the ball around. They have not been tested with a talented defense to date - WYO is a physical team but just doesn't have the athletes to contend and defense is optional for PUR. Defensively, MIZ has sold out to stop the run and forced teams to throw. Currently, their run defense is #6 in ypg allowed (65 ypg). If they can continue that trend against a premier running team they have a shot to keep this close but I don't expect them to slow down the UGA running attack.
UGA is more talented on the OL/DL, better playmakers on the outside, wins the TO battle and is better coached. MIZ has played better than expected but hasn't been tested physically/talent-wise.
*UGA is 6-1-1 last 8 ATS and 10-1 last 11 ATS on ROAD. MIZZOU is 4-1 ATS last 5 games against UGA.
*UGA won 53-28 last season at home. UGA beat MIZ at MIZ 28-27 in '16.
Georgia jumped out to a huge 42-7 lead last week to MTSU then put it on cruise control in the second half. They received zero resistance - moving down the field running/throwing/chunk plays. They are really clicking. I really like the control Fromm is showing. In his last 2 games combined he is 25-30 for 322, 4 TDs and 1 pick. They're getting the ball in their playmakers hands. Swift has yet to really 'take off' this year - it has really been Holyfield breaking loose. Against a good SC team on the road UGA defense showed why they're great. Eliminated the running game (54 rush yards allowed), forced Bentley to throw underneath (5.9 ypp), keep the playmakers in front and force TO's. They locked down Deebo Samuel (Their #1 player) and made others try to beat them. UGA has been so efficient offensively this year - avg. .687 points/play (7th in NCAAF) while allowing only .175 points/play (11th).
I see their game with Mizzou going much the same.
Mizzou's offense has been explosive as expected. Lock is racking up yards (#4 ypg) as expected and spreading the ball around. They have not been tested with a talented defense to date - WYO is a physical team but just doesn't have the athletes to contend and defense is optional for PUR. Defensively, MIZ has sold out to stop the run and forced teams to throw. Currently, their run defense is #6 in ypg allowed (65 ypg). If they can continue that trend against a premier running team they have a shot to keep this close but I don't expect them to slow down the UGA running attack.
UGA is more talented on the OL/DL, better playmakers on the outside, wins the TO battle and is better coached. MIZ has played better than expected but hasn't been tested physically/talent-wise.
Week 4: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) **I think all of these lines could move by 3+ points. Get em while they're hot.**
Buffalo already up to -6 . Probably wouldn't touch it above 7...although I still think BUFF should win by 2 scores
Week 4: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) **I think all of these lines could move by 3+ points. Get em while they're hot.**
Buffalo already up to -6 . Probably wouldn't touch it above 7...although I still think BUFF should win by 2 scores
Week 4: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) **I think all of these lines could move by 3+ points. Get em while they're hot.**
I should add the below...Most of these numbers will be gone by mid week if t hey aren't already. I don't want to just 'post my plays' I want to provide some perspective...
**I would play UGA to -16.5. I feel like 17 leaves the back door more open if UGA gets up big and decides to cruise late.
**I would play MSST to -14. I think they are a top 7ish team in the country. Their front 7 is good enough to win games for them. I really like Joe Moorhead as well.
**I wouldn't play BC above a TD. They will control the clock and the LOS but their D against Wake was a little scary. Poor tackling. I would think Addazio has them ready and won't look past PUR.
Week 4: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) **I think all of these lines could move by 3+ points. Get em while they're hot.**
I should add the below...Most of these numbers will be gone by mid week if t hey aren't already. I don't want to just 'post my plays' I want to provide some perspective...
**I would play UGA to -16.5. I feel like 17 leaves the back door more open if UGA gets up big and decides to cruise late.
**I would play MSST to -14. I think they are a top 7ish team in the country. Their front 7 is good enough to win games for them. I really like Joe Moorhead as well.
**I wouldn't play BC above a TD. They will control the clock and the LOS but their D against Wake was a little scary. Poor tackling. I would think Addazio has them ready and won't look past PUR.
A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away...
I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on
GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u)
BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u)
MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u)
NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u)
BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u)
Added:
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u) Have seen a couple others making this selection with confidence and I tend to agree - thought initially maybe this would see a lot of Vandy love with them just being on NBC against ND - but with smart cappers on SC I want to get on this number before it gets to -3. Vandy off a physical game against ND and a demoralizing loss. SC off a week of rest (not exactly sure how much hurricane effected their 'off' week). Shurmur played well against ND defense, especially in the 2nd half. SC offense much more multiple/versatile than ND's. If Vandy turns it over multiple times there will be trouble. Part of me thinks the UGA score didn't tell the full story as SC had a TO in the redzone early on.
A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away...
I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on
GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u)
BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u)
MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u)
NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u)
BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u)
Added:
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u) Have seen a couple others making this selection with confidence and I tend to agree - thought initially maybe this would see a lot of Vandy love with them just being on NBC against ND - but with smart cappers on SC I want to get on this number before it gets to -3. Vandy off a physical game against ND and a demoralizing loss. SC off a week of rest (not exactly sure how much hurricane effected their 'off' week). Shurmur played well against ND defense, especially in the 2nd half. SC offense much more multiple/versatile than ND's. If Vandy turns it over multiple times there will be trouble. Part of me thinks the UGA score didn't tell the full story as SC had a TO in the redzone early on.
*BC 11-1-1 ATS last 13 and 6-1 in last 7 road games.
*PUR 4-2 ATS last 6 home games. 7-16 SU in last 23 games
First - I think PUR and Wake are very similar teams. They have similar talent levels and produce similarly (PUR has been slightly more effective offensively and Wake slight more effective defensively). There was a lot to like from BC against Wake last week. The score of 41-34 is just a tad misleading - Wake scored on a blocked punt and score a relatively 'garbage time' TD with 1:30 left down 14. Certainly give Wake credit for keeping it close. BC QB Anthony Brown showed teams that if you want to play 8 or 9 in the box he now has the ability to beat you down the field. This will only open things up for AJ Dillon more. BC's offense has really been rolling -- 7th in ppg, 7th in ypg, 13th in points per play.
Their defense has shown signs of concern but I really like Addazio as a coach and think he gets them right. They weren't getting beat play in and play out against Wake - missed tackles hurt them. However, I really liked what I saw in the pass rush. I think the DEF will do just enough and keep PUR one dimensional on offense. This is a must win for PUR and their 4th consecutive game at home to start the season. PUR will play BC tough but BC just has too much firepower.
*BC 11-1-1 ATS last 13 and 6-1 in last 7 road games.
*PUR 4-2 ATS last 6 home games. 7-16 SU in last 23 games
First - I think PUR and Wake are very similar teams. They have similar talent levels and produce similarly (PUR has been slightly more effective offensively and Wake slight more effective defensively). There was a lot to like from BC against Wake last week. The score of 41-34 is just a tad misleading - Wake scored on a blocked punt and score a relatively 'garbage time' TD with 1:30 left down 14. Certainly give Wake credit for keeping it close. BC QB Anthony Brown showed teams that if you want to play 8 or 9 in the box he now has the ability to beat you down the field. This will only open things up for AJ Dillon more. BC's offense has really been rolling -- 7th in ppg, 7th in ypg, 13th in points per play.
Their defense has shown signs of concern but I really like Addazio as a coach and think he gets them right. They weren't getting beat play in and play out against Wake - missed tackles hurt them. However, I really liked what I saw in the pass rush. I think the DEF will do just enough and keep PUR one dimensional on offense. This is a must win for PUR and their 4th consecutive game at home to start the season. PUR will play BC tough but BC just has too much firepower.
A few 'dogs I'm taking a look into...(not final plays) *Illinois +28.5 (look ahead? OSU next week) *Bowling Green +4.5 (should MIA OH be favored on the road against anybody?) *Tulane +35 (slow down game. Urban Meyer circus. PSU next week) *Coastal Car +4 (ULL probably shouldn't be favored in any game) *Arizona St. +17.5 Anybody looking elsewhere?
Adding GT +17 to the list of 'dogs i'm looking at further...
A few 'dogs I'm taking a look into...(not final plays) *Illinois +28.5 (look ahead? OSU next week) *Bowling Green +4.5 (should MIA OH be favored on the road against anybody?) *Tulane +35 (slow down game. Urban Meyer circus. PSU next week) *Coastal Car +4 (ULL probably shouldn't be favored in any game) *Arizona St. +17.5 Anybody looking elsewhere?
Adding GT +17 to the list of 'dogs i'm looking at further...
A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away...
I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on
GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u)
BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u)
MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u)
NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u)
BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u)
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u)
Added:
BOWLING GREEN +7 (-120) (1u)
Miami OH should not be favored against anyone (from what we've seen thus far) -- and favored by a TD on the road in conference? Doesn't seem right. This game may truly be the toilet bowl of the college football season so far. BGSU avg .253 points per play and MIA OH avg .163 points per play. Both are in the bottom 20ish nationally. I don't see the total posted yet...if it is below 55 I think it becomes a play as well. MIA has scored 3 points in its last 8 quarters (against MIN and Cincy) and they're favored by a TD? MIA OH also may be missing their starting running back, top receiver and their starting right tackle. Where are the points coming from? BG has one of the worst defenses in the nation but at least they can move the football. BG lead Maryland two weeks ago 14-10 going into half time before being shutout in the second half and losing 45-14. Their QB is competent (a 3* recruit) and has played well considering playing MD and Oregon. BG beat MIA OH on the road by 12 last year. IF BG limits the turnovers I can't see them losing this game by more than a TD...
Frankly, I'm puzzled by this line - am I missing something???
A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away...
I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on
GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u)
BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u)
MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u)
NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u)
BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u)
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u)
Added:
BOWLING GREEN +7 (-120) (1u)
Miami OH should not be favored against anyone (from what we've seen thus far) -- and favored by a TD on the road in conference? Doesn't seem right. This game may truly be the toilet bowl of the college football season so far. BGSU avg .253 points per play and MIA OH avg .163 points per play. Both are in the bottom 20ish nationally. I don't see the total posted yet...if it is below 55 I think it becomes a play as well. MIA has scored 3 points in its last 8 quarters (against MIN and Cincy) and they're favored by a TD? MIA OH also may be missing their starting running back, top receiver and their starting right tackle. Where are the points coming from? BG has one of the worst defenses in the nation but at least they can move the football. BG lead Maryland two weeks ago 14-10 going into half time before being shutout in the second half and losing 45-14. Their QB is competent (a 3* recruit) and has played well considering playing MD and Oregon. BG beat MIA OH on the road by 12 last year. IF BG limits the turnovers I can't see them losing this game by more than a TD...
Frankly, I'm puzzled by this line - am I missing something???
Excellent lookimg card ...Love the use of color Best of luck Brorher
Thanks Dub!
What are your thoughts on Tulane (+37 now) and Illinois (+28.5)? Both catching OSU/PSU the week before playing each other. Urban Meyer circus going on. Tulane brings a different style to gameplan for...
Excellent lookimg card ...Love the use of color Best of luck Brorher
Thanks Dub!
What are your thoughts on Tulane (+37 now) and Illinois (+28.5)? Both catching OSU/PSU the week before playing each other. Urban Meyer circus going on. Tulane brings a different style to gameplan for...
Week 4 plays: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u) Added: BOWLING GREEN +7 (-120) (1u) Miami OH should not be favored against anyone (from what we've seen thus far) -- and favored by a TD on the road in conference? Doesn't seem right. This game may truly be the toilet bowl of the college football season so far. BGSU avg .253 points per play and MIA OH avg .163 points per play. Both are in the bottom 20ish nationally. I don't see the total posted yet...if it is below 55 I think it becomes a play as well. MIA has scored 3 points in its last 8 quarters (against MIN and Cincy) and they're favored by a TD? MIA OH also may be missing their starting running back, top receiver and their starting right tackle. Where are the points coming from? BG has one of the worst defenses in the nation but at least they can move the football. BG lead Maryland two weeks ago 14-10 going into half time before being shutout in the second half and losing 45-14. Their QB is competent (a 3* recruit) and has played well considering playing MD and Oregon. BG beat MIA OH on the road by 12 last year. IF BG limits the turnovers I can't see them losing this game by more than a TD... Frankly, I'm puzzled by this line - am I missing something???
Correction...what I meant to say (but had a brain fart) was if the total is around 55 the under is in play.
Week 4 plays: A few numbers on favorites jumped out to me right away and made plays before they got away... I'll make write-ups on these games as the week moves on GEORGIA -14 (-115) (1.25u) BOSTON COLLEGE -6.5 (-110) (1.25u) MISS ST. -10 (-110) (1.25u) NAVY -7 (-120) (1.25u) BUFFALO -4 (-110) (1.25u) SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105) (1u) Added: BOWLING GREEN +7 (-120) (1u) Miami OH should not be favored against anyone (from what we've seen thus far) -- and favored by a TD on the road in conference? Doesn't seem right. This game may truly be the toilet bowl of the college football season so far. BGSU avg .253 points per play and MIA OH avg .163 points per play. Both are in the bottom 20ish nationally. I don't see the total posted yet...if it is below 55 I think it becomes a play as well. MIA has scored 3 points in its last 8 quarters (against MIN and Cincy) and they're favored by a TD? MIA OH also may be missing their starting running back, top receiver and their starting right tackle. Where are the points coming from? BG has one of the worst defenses in the nation but at least they can move the football. BG lead Maryland two weeks ago 14-10 going into half time before being shutout in the second half and losing 45-14. Their QB is competent (a 3* recruit) and has played well considering playing MD and Oregon. BG beat MIA OH on the road by 12 last year. IF BG limits the turnovers I can't see them losing this game by more than a TD... Frankly, I'm puzzled by this line - am I missing something???
Correction...what I meant to say (but had a brain fart) was if the total is around 55 the under is in play.
Here is another game (BGSU) where I think the wrong team is favored. There are a lot of reasons to bet on the Chanticleers in this game. One thing causing some hesitation is their situation dealing with Hurricane Florence - have they been practicing regularly? are they focused on the game with all that's going on? But other than this I think CC is a solid choice here. I actually believe that playing in this game might be a good 'escape' for these guys.
ULL is #126 in points per play and #129 in points per play allowed. Teams are running it down their throats - 7 yards per carry (#126th) while they are only avg 2.5 yards per carry on offense (122nd). ULL has thrown it on almost 60% of their plays and they are not effective at all in that (#71 yards per pass). They are one dimensional, can't convert on 3rd downs (30% conversion, #99th), can't stop teams from converting 3rd downs (72% conversion, #129) and can't stop the run. So, they cannot posses the ball or get the ball out of the other teams hands -- how are they going to score consistent enough to win, let alone cover.
Coastal does a few things quite well. (which is more than I can say for ULL). They are #24 nationally in points per play. They commit to the run and do it well. They run it on 68% of their plays and avg 5.3 ypr. This allows them to convert on 47% of their 3rd downs (#25 in the country). They don't throw it often but when they do they do it effectively (7.8 ypp). Their run defense sucks - allowing 7.1 ypr (#127 nationally) - but, ULL doesn't run the ball. They have actually shown an ability to limit the passing attack of opponents thus far. Their win against UAB looks pretty good...and they were obviously outclassed by South Carolina.
Here is another game (BGSU) where I think the wrong team is favored. There are a lot of reasons to bet on the Chanticleers in this game. One thing causing some hesitation is their situation dealing with Hurricane Florence - have they been practicing regularly? are they focused on the game with all that's going on? But other than this I think CC is a solid choice here. I actually believe that playing in this game might be a good 'escape' for these guys.
ULL is #126 in points per play and #129 in points per play allowed. Teams are running it down their throats - 7 yards per carry (#126th) while they are only avg 2.5 yards per carry on offense (122nd). ULL has thrown it on almost 60% of their plays and they are not effective at all in that (#71 yards per pass). They are one dimensional, can't convert on 3rd downs (30% conversion, #99th), can't stop teams from converting 3rd downs (72% conversion, #129) and can't stop the run. So, they cannot posses the ball or get the ball out of the other teams hands -- how are they going to score consistent enough to win, let alone cover.
Coastal does a few things quite well. (which is more than I can say for ULL). They are #24 nationally in points per play. They commit to the run and do it well. They run it on 68% of their plays and avg 5.3 ypr. This allows them to convert on 47% of their 3rd downs (#25 in the country). They don't throw it often but when they do they do it effectively (7.8 ypp). Their run defense sucks - allowing 7.1 ypr (#127 nationally) - but, ULL doesn't run the ball. They have actually shown an ability to limit the passing attack of opponents thus far. Their win against UAB looks pretty good...and they were obviously outclassed by South Carolina.
Good work showing your recap form prior week but it's better to post your YTD record each week not just the record from the prior week. Know what I mean?.. Good luck this week.
Good work showing your recap form prior week but it's better to post your YTD record each week not just the record from the prior week. Know what I mean?.. Good luck this week.
Good work showing your recap form prior week but it's better to post your YTD record each week not just the record from the prior week. Know what I mean?.. Good luck this week.
Appreciate the feedback. I just started posting last week...I was 9-5 combined the first two weeks but obviously didn't post them on here so I don't want to post that to mislead. I started following some posts on here last year and decided I would have some fun and try my hand at posting plays. I won't always post long write-ups like I have thus far but for starting out I think it's a good idea to provide some perspective and establish at least a little credibility...
Moving forward I will always recap and post YTD numbers to keep it above board. The point is to be a part of the discussion, hopefully provide some good info, win money and have fun winning
Good work showing your recap form prior week but it's better to post your YTD record each week not just the record from the prior week. Know what I mean?.. Good luck this week.
Appreciate the feedback. I just started posting last week...I was 9-5 combined the first two weeks but obviously didn't post them on here so I don't want to post that to mislead. I started following some posts on here last year and decided I would have some fun and try my hand at posting plays. I won't always post long write-ups like I have thus far but for starting out I think it's a good idea to provide some perspective and establish at least a little credibility...
Moving forward I will always recap and post YTD numbers to keep it above board. The point is to be a part of the discussion, hopefully provide some good info, win money and have fun winning
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