Posted: 3/10/2018 6:10:22 PM
At the beginning of the 2016 season , on another forum , I described my goals
as well as my method to achieve them. I stated that I will not wager on any
matchup that does not offer me a 67 % win probability. To that end , my posted
2016 record was 19 of 29 or 66 %. My 2017 record ( posted to this forum ) was
22 of 30 , or 73 %.
How did I get there ?
I've been doing this for over 35 years , and in that time my capping method has
changed dramatically . So has my wagering method. In 1994, I began using a
"modified " Kelly strategy. I found I had to be a lot more accurate in my capping
ability and also accurately define my win probability to be successful using Kelly.
If you cannot accurately and consistently define your win probability , you will fail
Using Kelly forced me to change my capping method to accurately measure 2 key
components necessary for success . They are:
1. Accurately and consistently measuring " True Line Value " for each matchup.
2. Establishing an accurate win probability for each wager at any given pointspread.
Using these 2 keys in my capping strategy make it much easier to manage risk and
Being able to achieve this took a great deal of time and effort. I believe it was worth it.
Once you have mastered the ability to accurately measure " True Line Value " the
ability to determine win probability is quite simple.
Once you have mastered items # 1 and 2 listed above . Betting on sports is a lot more
fun and also a lot more rewarding.
GLTA This coming College Football Season.