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2017 College Football Season Recap

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: 2017 College Football Season Recap
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/10/2018 6:10:22 PM

At the beginning of the 2016 season , on another forum , I described my goals

as well as my method to achieve them. I stated that I will not wager on any

matchup that does not offer me a 67 % win probability. To that end , my posted

2016 record was 19 of 29 or 66 %. My 2017 record ( posted to this forum ) was

22 of 30 , or 73 %.

How did I get there ?

I've been doing this for over 35 years , and in that time my capping method has

changed dramatically . So has my wagering method. In 1994, I began using a

"modified " Kelly strategy. I found I had to be a lot more accurate in my capping

ability and also accurately define my win probability to be successful using Kelly.

If you cannot accurately and consistently define your win probability , you will fail

using Kelly.

Using Kelly forced me to change my capping method to accurately measure 2 key

components necessary for success . They are:

1. Accurately and consistently measuring " True Line Value " for each matchup.

2. Establishing an accurate win probability for each wager at any given pointspread.

Using these 2 keys in my capping strategy make it much easier to manage risk and

maximize returns.

Summary

Being able to achieve this took a great deal of time and effort. I believe it was worth it.

Once you have mastered the ability to accurately measure " True Line Value " the

ability to determine win probability is quite simple.

Once you have mastered items # 1 and 2 listed above . Betting on sports is a lot more

fun and also a lot more rewarding.

 

GLTA This coming College Football Season.

 

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/10/2018 6:31:03 PM
FWIW , Utilizing the Kelly Criterion as a wagering
strategy is NOT recommended for most . I began
looking into it in the late '80s. Kinda funny that a
guy who hates math would be drawn to Kelly and
win probability. At first , I had no clue what I was
getting into. It took me a few years to " get It "
I will always be grateful to the late Huey Mahl for
pointing me in the right direction . Wish he could
see what we've done with it.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/10/2018 7:07:30 PM
While my capping system is somewhat complicated ,
I do not utilize a computer in the capping process.
I will only use it to collect data points.
If you can picture an old geezer sitting at his desk
wearing his readers , with an 8' x 11 ruled pad ,
 2 calculators , and a pencil. That's me. 
Oktoberfestlax4 PM Oktoberfestlax4
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Posted: 3/11/2018 4:35:16 PM
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/12/2018 1:06:25 PM

Why do I bring this up ?

I mention it to encourage all who wager on CFB to
remember this . No matter how good you think you
are at capping this game , there is always room for
improvement. Improvement leads to greater returns.
Now is the time to survey last seasons results and
look for ways and means to improve your results
for the coming year. A new method , a new data
point , looking at your strategy from a different , or
new perspective are things that can improve your
results.

Why should I do This ?

To put it simply , improved results WILL make you
more profitable in the long run.

If a desire to be more profitable is not your goal ,
There are a lot of Bookmakers out there hoping you
will bring your business to them.

The choice is yours every time you make a wager.

Choose wisely  
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/12/2018 6:08:29 PM

Good Luck To All this coming College Football Season.


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/20/2018 2:22:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

At the beginning of the 2016 season , on another forum , I described my goals

as well as my method to achieve them. I stated that I will not wager on any

matchup that does not offer me a 67 % win probability. To that end , my posted

2016 record was 19 of 29 or 66 %. My 2017 record ( posted to this forum ) was

22 of 30 , or 73 %.

How did I get there ?

I've been doing this for over 35 years , and in that time my capping method has

changed dramatically . So has my wagering method. In 1994, I began using a

"modified " Kelly strategy. I found I had to be a lot more accurate in my capping

ability and also accurately define my win probability to be successful using Kelly.

If you cannot accurately and consistently define your win probability , you will fail

using Kelly.

Using Kelly forced me to change my capping method to accurately measure 2 key

components necessary for success . They are:

1. Accurately and consistently measuring " True Line Value " for each matchup.

2. Establishing an accurate win probability for each wager at any given pointspread.

Using these 2 keys in my capping strategy make it much easier to manage risk and

maximize returns.

Summary

Being able to achieve this took a great deal of time and effort. I believe it was worth it.

Once you have mastered the ability to accurately measure " True Line Value " the

ability to determine win probability is quite simple.

Once you have mastered items # 1 and 2 listed above . Betting on sports is a lot more

fun and also a lot more rewarding.

 

GLTA This coming College Football Season.

 




2018 Season Performance Goals


My goals for the 2018 season are simple. to improve
my performance over last season and also be more
profitable as well.

To that end ,I will not wager on any matchup this year
that  does not offer me a minimum Win Probability
least 70 % as measured by my capping metrics.

This means I will be wagering on fewer games , but
with a higher probability which should increase my
returns by season end.

Good Luck to All this coming College Football season.


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/24/2018 10:51:37 AM
In another thread,I mentioned the use of " Advanced

Analytics " to help improve capping accuracy as well

as financial return. I highly recommend it .

Good Luck to All this College Football season.




WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 5/12/2018 1:36:27 PM
For all of you who follow the " Computer Cappers ".

Massey and Howell have now posted their week 1 projections.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/9/2018 1:12:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , Utilizing the Kelly Criterion as a wagering
strategy is NOT recommended for most . I began
looking into it in the late '80s. Kinda funny that a
guy who hates math would be drawn to Kelly and
win probability. At first , I had no clue what I was
getting into. It took me a few years to " get It "

I will always be grateful to the late Huey Mahl for
pointing me in the right direction . Wish he could
see what we've done with it.



I know most on the forum are probably tired of me
talking about how improving capping skills will result
in a more profitable College Football betting season ,
and that improved capping accuracy will lead to
financial reward. I thought I'd post a chart to illustrate
my point.
This chart was a prime motivation for me in my study
of CFB capping methods and accuracy as well as my
adopting Kelly as my wagering strategy, and why I
continue to strive for increased capping accuracy at
the start of every season.

Win %............Opt. Bet............ # trials to double B.R
.

 53....................1.3 %.......................9,028

 60..................16.8 %............................60

 65..................26.5 %............................22

 70..................37.0 %............................11

 75..................47.5 %..............................7

While I know most on the forum would be hesitant to
put almost half their bankroll on 1 wager , but ,if you
have a method of verifying the win probability of the
wager accurately, the above table illustrates what can
be accomplished. Even if you bet 1 unit at a time ,
improved accuracy will improve your results.



WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/10/2018 12:28:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




I know most on the forum are probably tired of me
talking about how improving capping skills will result
in a more profitable College Football betting season ,
and that improved capping accuracy will lead to
financial reward. I thought I'd post a chart to illustrate
my point.
This chart was a prime motivation for me in my study
of CFB capping methods and accuracy as well as my
adopting Kelly as my wagering strategy, and why I
continue to strive for increased capping accuracy at
the start of every season.

Win %............Opt. Bet............ # trials to double B.R
.

 53....................1.3 %.......................9,028

 60..................16.8 %............................60

 65..................26.5 %............................22

 70..................37.0 %............................11

 75..................47.5 %..............................7

While I know most on the forum would be hesitant to
put almost half their bankroll on 1 wager , but ,if you
have a method of verifying the win probability of the
wager accurately, the above table illustrates what can
be accomplished. Even if you bet 1 unit at a time ,
improved accuracy will improve your results.






For those seeking to improve their capping skills ,
there are a number of steps that need to be taken
in the process to improve your results.

Step 1.  Introspection  Take a critical , but fair, self
              assessment of the quality of your overall
              knowledge of the sport you are trying to
              cap , but more importantly your ability to
              assess matchups from an analytical
              perspective relative to the predicting actual
              result of any matchup seek to wager on.
              If you find the methods you use are not
              producing a desired result ..... examine
              your method carefully to find out why.
              Be completely honest with yourself during
              the introspection process or you will never
              be willing to get to step # 2.
          
   
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/16/2018 4:35:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

At the beginning of the 2016 season , on another forum , I described my goals

as well as my method to achieve them. I stated that I will not wager on any

matchup that does not offer me a 67 % win probability. To that end , my posted

2016 record was 19 of 29 or 66 %. My 2017 record ( posted to this forum ) was

22 of 30 , or 73 %.

How did I get there ?

I've been doing this for over 35 years , and in that time my capping method has

changed dramatically . So has my wagering method. In 1994, I began using a

"modified " Kelly strategy. I found I had to be a lot more accurate in my capping

ability and also accurately define my win probability to be successful using Kelly.

If you cannot accurately and consistently define your win probability , you will fail

using Kelly.

Using Kelly forced me to change my capping method to accurately measure 2 key

components necessary for success . They are:

1. Accurately and consistently measuring " True Line Value " for each matchup that you choose to wager on.

2. Establishing an accurate win probability for each wager at any given pointspread.

Using these 2 keys in my capping strategy make it much easier to manage risk and

maximize returns.

Summary

Being able to achieve this took a great deal of time and effort. I believe it was worth it.

Once you have mastered the ability to accurately measure " True Line Value " the

ability to determine win probability is quite simple.

Once you have mastered items # 1 and 2 listed above . Betting on sports is a lot more

fun and also a lot more rewarding.

 

GLTA This coming College Football Season.

 




It's time for me to focus on Week 1 investments and
to also focus on my goal of achieving an 80 % win
probability on all props wagered on this season.

I will leave you with this thought though . I continue to
mention items # 1 and # 2 to the forum for this simple
reason . If you can measure line value,( Item # 1)
you can always make sound wagering decisions.

If you have the ability to quantify risk ( Item # 2 ), you
can always make profitable wagering decisions.

It's all about the amount of value present at any given
price and the discipline to wait on a wager until
sufficient value is present.

Good Luck to All this coming College Football season.

    


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/19/2018 7:01:37 PM

There is still plenty of value in some Week 1 Lines

    
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/8/2018 11:24:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:


Why do I bring this up ?

I mention it to encourage all who wager on CFB to
remember this . No matter how good you think you
are at capping this game , there is always room for
improvement. Improvement leads to greater returns.
Now is the time to survey last seasons results and
look for ways and means to improve your results
for the coming year. A new method , a new data
point , looking at your strategy from a different , or
new perspective are things that can improve your
results.

Why should I do This ?

To put it simply , improved results WILL make you
more profitable in the long run.

If a desire to be more profitable is not your goal ,
There are a lot of Bookmakers out there hoping you
will bring your business to them.

The choice is yours every time you make a wager.

Choose wisely  




Almost time for the 2018 season to get underway.

Are you ready to make this your most profitable
season ever ?               

GLTA  
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