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Preseason Team Analysis and Ratings

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Preseason Team Analysis and Ratings
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/10/2018 2:47:04 PM

Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season , on another forum,

I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis

of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.

This was done with emphasis on his MOV  and Win Probability projections.

My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all

games played.

While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all

who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the

accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy

of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.

You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.

It is well worth the time and the effort.

I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and

Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified

that data for accuracy and consistency.

 

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/12/2018 5:48:07 PM
For those who utilize " Computer Cappers " as your
handicapping strategy . Here's something to think
about :

Breakeven
win % vs standard odds of -110 is 52.4 %
( actually 52.38 % )

2017 season results vs the spread for the most
prominent " Computer Cappers " are :

Sagarin Points..........52.43 %

Massey Ratings........49.01 %

ESPN
FPI.................51.24 %

FEI Projections.........50.87 %

Of 56 total " Computer Cappers " , only 4 finished
above " Breakeven ". Of those 4 the highest finish
was only  53.46 % . You're sure not going to get
wealthy on that percentage in your entire lifetime.

I post this to let all know that using these cappers
as your sole strategy just about assures you of a
losing season , and that learning to cap may be a
better alternative. FWIW , I learned this lesson back
in 1983. It has paid dividends ever since.

The 2017 results I've posted here are typical for
years past as well , so the win percentages posted
have not changed much over the years.

It is also interesting to note that all " Computer
Cappers " were only able to pick the straight up
winner 74.23  % of the time ( or less ) . This is also
consistent with Linesmakers current ability to make
the winning team the actual favorite.


 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/19/2018 2:48:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season , on another forum,

I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis

of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.

This was done with emphasis on his MOV  and Win Probability projections.

My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all

games played.

While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all

who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the

accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy

of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.

You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.

It is well worth the time and the effort.

I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and

Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified

that data for accuracy and consistency.

 





When I completed  my backcheck and saw what the
results were , I was curious to determine where he
was most accurate and where he was not , and why.
I compared the quality of his results by SOS , QBR
diff , scheme , talent diff. , coaching, stats and was
able to see where he was most accurate, and why.
I recommend that all who use Connely's data to do
this exercise as it will make his data far more useful
to you as a capping tool.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/19/2018 3:13:29 PM
For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping
tool , remember that all stats are backward looking
and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of
any future matchups unless they are tempered with
criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 3/24/2018 11:25:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping
tool , remember that all stats are backward looking
and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of
any future matchups unless they are tempered with
criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup.
The problem with using conventional stats to
establish " True Line Value " or " Win Probability " is
that they are not compatible to a specific matchup.
Stats must be customized for scheme and talent
levels, and net production.
Most do not know what data is critical in resolving
the question of " What is required to determine
value on a wager ". The reason It's difficult for most
is that they can look at stats but they do not know
the limits of what stats can tell them. Most never
figure it out.



Good Luck to all this coming season  
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 3/26/2018 12:42:52 AM
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 4/18/2018 9:06:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Prior to the start of the 2017 College Football season , on another forum,

I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis

of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.

This was done with emphasis on his MOV  and Win Probability projections.

My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all

games played.

While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all

who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the

accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy

of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.

You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.

It is well worth the time and the effort.

I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and

Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified

that data for accuracy and consistency.

 





It's time for me to prepare for this upcoming CFB
season , but I thought I'd leave the forum with
something to think about , especially for those who
are too lazy to cap and / or blindly follow the work of
others.
With regard to my post # 1, I took the time to verify
his data , and while I do not use it myself , for those
who do , I will leave you with a couple of questions
to ask yourselves relative to his data.

MOV Projections

1. What percentage of his MOV projections were
    incorrect by 40 or more points ?

Win Probability

1. What percentage of the time did he project the
    wrong team to win the matchup ?

If you are putting your capital at risk based on the
work of others , I highly recommend that you find
the answers to those questions .

 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 5/30/2018 10:55:24 PM
Lines are up . There's still some value in week 1.

Good Luck to all this College football season.

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/8/2018 9:15:35 AM
Phil Steele preorders start to ship today ( 6 / 8 ) via
priority mail according to his site.




WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/15/2018 5:20:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Phil Steele preorders start to ship today ( 6 / 8 ) via
priority mail according to his site.









Phil Steele should be in stores by 6 / 26 

 

UNIMAN PM UNIMAN
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Posted: 6/16/2018 9:30:51 AM
Or, you can BUY IT NOW on eBay. 
A few vendors there have it. 
Wow, went from 12.99 to 21.50.  Still worth it and he knows it.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 6/16/2018 9:40:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Or, you can BUY IT NOW on eBay. 
A few vendors there have it. 
Wow, went from 12.99 to 21.50.  Still worth it and he knows it.




Well ,it looks like inflation has hit the College
Football preview magazine community.  

We're just gonna have to cash a few more tickets.




WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/3/2018 1:14:01 PM
Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's
magazine.

I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his
" Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are
liable to be disappointed with your results.

Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well
as the " Computer Cappers "past results.

Select your information sources carefully , and know
their limits of accuracy if you use them to put capital
at risk.

Good Luck. 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/3/2018 1:59:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's
magazine.

I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his
" Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are
liable to be disappointed with your results.

Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well
as the " Computer Cappers "past results.

Select your information sources carefully , and know
their limits of accuracy if you use them to put capital
at risk.

Good Luck. 




The step underlined above  , if followed , can save
the Forum as a whole, from a lot of posts about " Bad
Beats " and games being " Fixed " 
GanjaGandalf PM GanjaGandalf
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Posted: 7/7/2018 1:16:02 PM

Hey WISEGUY36,

thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.

I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?

Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.

Greetings from Germany. GG

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/7/2018 1:50:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GanjaGandalf:

Hey WISEGUY36,

thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.

I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?

Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.

Greetings from Germany. GG





The thinking process centers on one specific thing.

Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value
to the bettor is present.There are many different
methods to measure value. Some are more accurate
than others , but choose a method that you are
comfortable using to improve your results.

For more on this , please read my Bowl and also
my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail
in those and also my recap thread and the 2013
Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process

Welcome to the Forum and person Luck to you.
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/7/2018 1:52:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





The thinking process centers on one specific thing.

Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value
to the bettor is present.There are many different
methods to measure value. Some are more accurate
than others , but choose a method that you are
comfortable using to improve your results.

For more on this , please read my Bowl and also
my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail
in those and also my recap thread and the 2013
Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process

Welcome to the Forum and Good Luck to you.




Don't know what happened there.

Good Luck to you this season. 
GanjaGandalf PM GanjaGandalf
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Posted: 7/7/2018 2:59:02 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Originally Posted by GanjaGandalf] Hey WISEGUY36, thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far. I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process? Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language. Greetings from Germany. GG

The thinking process centers on one specific thing.Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured valueto the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accuratethan others , but choose a method that you arecomfortable using to improve your results.For more on this , please read my Bowl and alsomy Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detailin those and also my recap thread and the 2013Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking processWelcome to the Forum and person Luck to you.

Thank you and good luck in reaching your goal this season

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/7/2018 3:27:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GanjaGandalf:


Thank you and good luck in reaching your goal this season






Thank you very much . I'm looking forward to the
challenge.

    
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/20/2018 10:24:22 AM
Good News !!!!!!!

Fall Camp opens for teams in the next 2 weeks.

Check injury reports and news feeds often.  

GL this season       
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/20/2018 10:19:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Good News !!!!!!!

Fall Camp opens for teams in the next 2 weeks.

Check injury reports and news feeds often.  

GL this season       




FYI some sample Team report dates :

Tennessee    7 / 28

Georgia         7 / 30

We're getting Closer !!!!!!    
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/21/2018 10:46:03 AM

Hawai'i begins Fall Camp on 7 / 26   


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/25/2018 12:50:50 PM
Most teams are scheduled to report by 8 / 4.

Check injury reports and news feeds daily.

GLTA  
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 7/25/2018 3:09:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Most teams are scheduled to report by 8 / 4.

Check injury reports and news feeds daily.

GLTA  




FWIW , There are a quite a few prominent teams
that lost a significant number of starters on the
defensive side due to graduation and early entrants
to the NFL draft. This , coupled with  some projected
starters showing up on early injury reports may pose
a problem for some teams early in the season.

Do your homework. 

Be careful laying large numbers early. 


johnwalker42 PM johnwalker42
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Posted: 7/25/2018 4:35:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Most teams are scheduled to report by 8 / 4.Check injury reports and news feeds daily.GLTA

do you know a good site to check injury reports?

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