Posted: 3/8/2018 10:26:26 PM
Just a sample of what I'll try to show next (running out of time tonight):
Power Rating = 76.2
ATS record: 5-7-1 *suggests
they should be rated lower to improve their ATS record.
ATS margin: +3.1 ppg
*suggests they should be rated higher to lower their ATS margin
**This ATS margin figure decreases to +0.8 if the Syracuse
game is excluded (QB Dungey out).
ATS margin first 6 regular
season games: -9.0 ppg (ATS record: 1-5)
ATS margin last 6
regular season games: +16.1 ppg (ATS record 4-1-1)
average/mean vs. #3 -#21 rated opponents:
-8.4 ppg (ATS record: 0-3-1)
average/mean vs. #24 -#28 rated opponents:
+4.1 ppg (ATS record: 2-2)
average/mean vs. #41 -#85 rated opponents:
+14.6 ppg (ATS record: 3-1)
*Notice the very first team is an example of you can’t have
it both ways (Record suggests they are overvalued, Margins suggest they are
undervalued). This is obviously because
when they won, they won big.
Inconsistent teams for ATS margin lead me to do a standard deviation on
this statistic so that I could then rank all teams from most consistent ATS
margins to most volatile ATS margins.
Will post that info later.
Power Rating = 95.4
ATS record: 7-7
ATS margin: +0.2 ppg
ATS margin first 10
regular season games: -1.4 ppg (ATS record: 4-6) *Also, for games 6-10,
they were 0-5 ATS. Clemson seems to
intentionally put it on cruise control until their best effort is needed.
ATS margin last 3
regular season games: +10.7 ppg (ATS record 3-0) *I do include conference championship
games as regular season (both teams are motivated, unlike some bowl games).
average/mean vs. #1 -#25 rated opponents:
+3.4 ppg (ATS record: 4-2) *This
figure was +7.1 ppg going into the Alabama game. Clemson plays well (generally) against better
margin average/mean vs. #26 -#45 rated opponents: -3.5 ppg (ATS record: 2-4) *Anybody
have Wake Forest +21 against Clemson last year?
Never in doubt, right!!?? Down
28-0 with 12 minutes left to play. Dabo
tends to go on cruise control vs. opponents in this tier. Same thing happened in the 2016 championship
season, they turned it on when they needed to.