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2017-18 Bowl Guide

Forum: College Football Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [College Football] Topic: 2017-18 Bowl Guide
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:02:33 AM

SATURDAY, Dec 16

CELEBRATION BOWL Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
199  N CARO AT&T  -7
12:00 p.m. ABC
200  GRAMBLING

NEW ORLEANS BOWL Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA
201  TROY  -5
1:00 p.m. ESPN
202  N TEXAS

CURE BOWL Camping World Stadium - Orlando, Fl
203  GA STATE
2:30 p.m. CBSC
204  WKU  -5

LAS VEGAS BOWL Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
205  OREGON  -2'
3:30 p.m. ABC
206  BOISE

NEW MEXICO BOWL Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
207  MARSHALL
4:30 p.m. ESPN
208  COL STATE  -3

CAMELLIA BOWL Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
209  MTS
8:00 p.m. ESPN
210  ARK STATE  -7
 

TUESDAY, Dec 19

BOCA RATON BOWL FIU Stadium - Boca Raton, Fl
211  AKRON
7:00 p.m. ESPN
212  FAU  -15


WEDNESDAY, Dec 20

FRISCO BOWL Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX
213  LA TECH
8:00 p.m. ESPN
214  SMU  -6'


THURSDAY, Dec 21

GASPARILLA BAD BOY MOWERS BOWL wtf,  Tropicana Field - St Petersburg, FL
215  TEMPLE  -6
8:00 p.m. ESPN
216  FIU


FRIDAY, Dec 22

BAHAMAS BOWL Thomas A Robinson National Stadium - Nassau, Bahamas
217  UAB
12:30 p.m. ESPN
218  OHIO  -7'

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL Albertson’s Stadium - Boise, ID
219  C MICHIGAN
4:00 p.m. ESPN
220  WYOMING  P


SATURDAY, Dec 23

BIRMINGHAM BOWL Legion Field - Birmingham, AL
221  T TECH
12:00 p.m. ESPN
222  USF  -5

ARMED FORCES BOWL Amon G Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
223  ARMY
3:30 p.m. ESPN
224  SDSU  -5

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
225  APP ST
7:00 p.m. ESPN
226  TOLEDO  -8


SUNDAY, Dec 24

HAWAII BOWL Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
227  HOUSTON  -1'
p.. ESPN
228  FRESNO


TUESDAY, Dec 26

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
229  UTAH  -2'
1:30 p.m. ESPN
230 WVIRG

QUICKEN LANE BOWL Ford Field - Detroit MI
231  DUKE  -4
5:15 p.m. ESPN
232  N ILLINOIS

CACTUS BOWL Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ
233  KAN STATE  -3
9:00 p.m.
234  UCLA


bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:11:15 AM

WEDNESDAY, Dec 27

INDEPENDENCE BOWL Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
235  S MISS
1:30 p.m. ESPN
236  FLA STATE  -18'

PINSTRIPE BOWL Yankee Stadium - New York, NY
237  IOWA  -2
5:15 p.m. ESPN
238  B COLLEGE

TEXAS BOWL NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
239  MIZZOU
9:00 p.m. ESPN
240  TEXAS  -2

FOSTER FARMS BOWL Levi’s Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
275  PURDUE  -1'
8:30 p.m. FOX
276  ZONA


bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:12:38 AM
THURSDAY, Dec 28

MILITARY BOWL Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MA
241  VIRGINIA 
1:30 p.m. ESPN
242  NAVY  -2

CAMPING WORLD BOWL Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
243  VA TECH
5:15 p.m. ESPN
244  OKIE ST  -2'

ALAMO BOWL Alamodome - San Antonio, TX
245  TREE
9:00 p.m. ESPN
246  TCU  -2

HOLIDAY BOWL SDCCU Stadium - San Diego, CA
277  MICH STATE
6:00 P.M.
278  WAZZU  -1


bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:17:58 AM
FRIDAY, Dec 29

BELK BOWL Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
247  TEXAS A&M
1:00 p.m. ESPN
248  WAKE  -2

SUN BOWL Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
249  NC ST  -6
2:00 p.m. CBS
250  ARIZ ST

MUSIC CITY BOWL Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN
251  KENTUCKY
4:30 p.m. ESPN
252  NWESTERN  -8'

ARIZONA BOWL Arizona Stadium - Tuscon, AZ
253  UTAH ST  -8
5:30 p.m. CBSC
254  NMSU

COTTON BOWL AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
255  USC
8:30 p.m. ESPN
256  OHIO STATE  -9
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:19:30 AM
SATURDAY, Dec 30


TAXSLAYER BOWL Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
257  LOUISVILLE  -4
12:00 p.m. ESPN
258  MISS STATE

LIBERTY BOWL Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN
259  IOWA STATE
12:30 p.m. ABC
260  MEMPHIS  P

FIESTA BOWL University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ
261  WASH
4:00 p.m. ESPN
262  PENN STATE  -3

ORANGE BOWL Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL
263  WISKY  -6
8:00 p.m. ESPN
264  MIAMI


bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:21:29 AM
MONDAY, Jan 1


OUTBACK BOWL Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, Fl
265  S CARO
12:00 p.m. espn2
266  MICHIGAN  -7

PEACH BOWL Mercedez-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
267  UCF
12:30 p.m. ESPN
268  AUBURN  -6

CITRUS BOWL Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
269  LSU
1:00 p.m. ABC
270  N DAME  P


ROSE BOWL Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
271  GEORGIA  -1
5:00 p.m. ESPN
272  OU

SUGAR BOWL Mercedez-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA
273  BAMA  -1
8:45 p.m.
274  CLEMSON


MONDAY, Jan 8


COLLEGE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

151  OKLAHOMA
8:45 p.m. ESPN
152  ALABAMA  -5
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:24:12 AM
last 2 years...
one unit  19-7
smaller   24-19
  * 1H                  9-4
  * 2H/in-game  12-5
  * quarters        11-0



ONE UNIT

Houston  P
Ohio St  -6
Texas A&M +7*


smaller

UAB  +8'
Kentucky  +11
Louisville  -3'
UCF  +10


leans / watching line
SMU.....TTech....Va Tech....Miami...S Caro....Utah St

* hook
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:26:23 AM
LINKS

https://www.sbnation.com/a/bowl-games-schedule-2017

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/bowls/

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?sc=is_bowlgame

www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/bowl-odds

http://www.ncaa.com/scoreboard/football/fbs/2017/P

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database

http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/

https://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football/injuries/

http://footballscoop.com/the-scoop/

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/coaching-changes/

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/28/16552342/college-football-coaching-rumors-changes-2017

www.sportsonearth.com/article/159586766/interim-coaches-affect-predicting-bowl-games

http://www.footballzebras.com/2016/12/06/2016-17-bowl-officiating-assignments-by-conference/

http://www.cfbanalytics.com/

bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:28:53 AM
RECENT BOWL HISTORY

 $$  all you have to do ha.........................is pick the WINNER....as the winner of the game also COVERS 85-90% of the time

note:  2016 a huge exception
 
Last 7 years.....
 *SU winner is 224-34 ATS

2016   fav 14-27 ATS...OU 17-24
  * dog won 15 games SU...SU winner 29-12 ATS

2015   fav 25-16 ATS....OU 26-15
  *dog won 12 games SU...SU winner 37-4 ATS

2014    fav 15-24 ATS...OU 23-15-1
      * dog won 21 games SU...SU winner 36-3 ATS

2013    fav 19-16 ATS...O/U 14-21
      * dog won 13 games SU...SU winner 31-4 ATS

2012    fav 21-14 ATS...O/U 15-20
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 32-3 ATS
      
2011    fav 18-15 ATS...O/U 14-20
      * dog won 11 games SU...SU winner 30-4 ATS

2010    fav 20-13 ATS...O/U 17-16
      * dog won 10 games SU...SU winner 29-4 ATS 


Last  6 yrs
             SU          ATS    
AAC      8-17       9-16
ACC     31-29      32-28
B10      22-32      24-30
B12      22-21      19-24
CUSA   22-11     21-12
IND       8-7         5-10
MAC    12-22      15-19
MTW    17-21     18-20
P12      27-22     24-25
SEC      41-23     38-26
SB        11-10     9-12
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:34:40 AM
IDEAS

1)  FOCUS

  *Don't think MOTIVATION / effort maybe.....think FOCUS > mostly in preparation
  *What was the goal when the season began?...don't think in terms of do they care / will they try hard
  *Is THIS where they wanted to be?....will they be FULLY focused?
     note: ignore what coaches say...as they love the bowls for the extra practices...where they can beat the helll outta the young guys (see who can play + if hurt have until fall to heal)
  $$ one of my favorites:  a (good) team EMBARRASSED in their bowl last year...esp. if a DOG this year
    maybe ?....hesitate to back a favorite that had a huge bowl win the previous year
       $  in general lean to dogs in the early games / favorites in later (KEY) games
 

2)  COACHES

  *some PREPARE much better than others...some know what buttons to push....and when to do so.
  *some simply do not like all the bowl BS...and treat bowls just like another spring
    eg. Bill Snyder has been the best HC to bet during the reg.season...but has only covered 6 of last 18 bowls  


3)  CONFERENCE STRENGTH / TRENDS

  *all that ridiculous conference talk?.....NOW is the time because in bowls it is actually useful   
  *you might have noticed EARLY conference trends often carry over to later games
           $  meaning if the SEC is killing everybody AGAIN....this usually continues


4)  COMMON OPPONENTS

  * compare their stats if they played the same team....and / or their performance vs similar teams in style of play or even power ratings   


5)  DISTRACTIONS

  *HC...and / or assistants leaving of course the main issue ...just RUMORED to leave can cause problems as well
  *beware the heavy favorite in a crap bowl with a lotta players thinking NFL ....they might just be trying to not get hurt
  *don't ASSume a veteran team will go all out in their final game
  *a team with too many 'injuries'...and suspensions is likely to not be focused
  *award winners...esp the Heisman have historically been distractions..not lately it seems


6)  INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS

  *probably overrated...maybe best to think of it this way...even if the effect on the games outcome is minimal...   you still just want to know who is / not playing
  *keep in mind some coaches DO NOT DISCUSS / REVEAL injuries....so if practices are closed you have no idea if any key guys are hurt
  **best sources are local news...beat writers that give daily updates can be a great source to get a 'feel' for what's going on


7)   CROWD EDGE

   Local...or regional can make a huge difference...some teams affected more than others.
   A strong crowd edge has meant (about) a 58-60% ATS in the past
     NOTE:  as with coaching changes...(recently) this has not made much difference
     *hard to find out...but some teams with limited budgets...can't afford to fly and must BUS it yikes


7)  MATCH-UP ADVANTAGES

   *as always...a match-up edge is perhaps the most important factor in determining who wins/loses....      
    *what can team A do really well?...can team B stop this?...and vice-versa
    *here a strong DEFENSIVE team...facing a strong OFFENSIVE team usually has the edge...especially after a long lay-off
    ** if considering a heavy favorite (maybe with seemingly few weaknesses) does their opponent have the ability to DISRUPT...what they like to do?
 
     

bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:36:25 AM
STRATEGY

1)  JUST BET THE WINNER
 
*sure easier said than done...but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time
     *don't forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests....and especially when playing DOGS
   $$$ last 2 years.....the dog won OUTRIGHT 33X...  

2)  AVOID or FADE

    * average teams that FINISHED strong.....just the opposite of what most think...often these teams revert back to their old self after a long lay-off
    *TURNOVER prone teams..the lay-off ain't gonna fix it
    *NEVER play....a 'bubble-burst' team...just move on to the next game
    * the bowl virgin...their GOAL of just making a bowl have been met...the bowl is more of a REWARD / VACATION
    *cold weather teams....with no indoor facility...tough to stay in top condition if you can't work outside
       AND...warm weather teams...playing in cold weather
    *the interim HC with no shot at the job...where most coaches are leaving...the coaches are spending all their time looking for another job (if they wait it's too late)
    *the team with the extra long lay-off....vs the team with a shorter one....esp if the former is an offensive team....the latter defensive
    *SENIOR heavy teams off a disapponting year...they often are not looking for redemption...but to chase azz and get drunk...
    * the Heisman winner...all the BS takes a ton of time away from game prep....plus everyone telling him how awesome he is...while his opponents are sick of getting asked...how do you ever plan to stop this awesome individual?
   
3)   PLAY ON

  *** the 'good' team EMBARRASSED in last year's bowl...esp if returning to same bowl / close to home 
  ** the team that (seems to be)...on the RISE...meaning they really need a nice win to keep the MoMENTUM going 
  *the team with the better QB...
  *the team with the better D / special teams / ability to leverage the field in their favor
  *a good team that might have finished poorly.....again the opposite of what most think....the key is the strong team will emerge much improved...and now offers great value maybe
  *a senior heavy team....IF MOTIVATED...avoid if in a lesser bowl maybe....and/or in a party city...
  *the team with the interim HC...that the players want to get hired...if the guy has a real shot                
  *the team from the tougher conference..that played a tougher schedule

4)  FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT

      *unlike the reg season (usually)...play on instead of fade...
       BECAUSE...
       ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME
          *note:  for totals about 56%....since 1992
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:41:26 AM
1H / 2H / in-game notes

2016

before 12/25
  * fav were 3-10 ATS / 8 of 13 went UNDER

1H   fav were 7-4-2 SU / 7-6 ATS / 5-8 OU
2H   fav were 4-8-1 SU / 3-10 ATS / 8-5 OU

12/26-30
  * fav were 5-14 ATS / 10/19 went OVER

1H   fav were 9-8-2 SU / 6-13 ATS / 9-10 OU
2H   fav were 9-10/ 7-12 / 10-9

after 12/31 (use 12/31 instead of 1/1 because big games on NYE)
  * fav were 5-4 ATS / 7/9 went UNDER

1H   fav went 9-0 SU / 7-2 ATS / 1-8 OU
2H   fav 5-4/3-6/2-7


2015

before 12/25
  *overall   Favorites were 7-5 ATS / 8 of 12 went OVER
        note:   only 2X did DOG cover...but not WIN the game (Ohio / NMX)

1H     Fav were 6-4-2 SU / 6-6 ATS / 6-6 OU >
2H     Fav were 9-3 SU / 8-4 ATS / 8-4 OUn

12/26-12/30
  *overall Fav were 10-6 ATS / 9-7 OU
      note:  only ONCE did the DOG cover and not WIN SU (Tulsa)

1H    Fav were 10-3-3 SU / 8-8 ATS / 10-6 OU
2H    Fav were 9-3-4 SU / 8-8 ATS / 5-11 OU

after 12/31
  *overall Fav were 8-5 ATS / 8-5 OU
       note:  only ONCE did dog cover and not win (Clemson)

1H    Fav went 10-2-1 SU / 9-4 ATS / 7-6 OU
2H    Fav went 6-7 SU / 5-8 ATS / 9-4 OU


2014 

< 12/25

1H   FAV 7-4 SU / 6-5 ATS
     O/U 6-5 ATS
  * only once in 4 games did fav come back to win game SU
2H   FAV 6-5 SU / ATS
     O/U 6-5

12/26 > 12/31

1H  FAV 7-10 SU / 6-11 ATS
    O/U 11-6 ATS
 * only one time in 10 games did fav come back and win SU
2H  FAV 10-7 SU / 8-9 ATS
    O/U 7-10 ATS 

> 1/1

1H  FAV 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS
    OU 6-6 ATS
 *in 2 games fav did NOT come back to win SU
SO...only 2X in 16 games did fav come back to win SU
  *only ONCE did fav come back to cover GAME
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:46:26 AM

CONFUSED.....as to which team to play?

  $  why not wait until the game starts whydontcha?

USUALLY...in late-season / bowl games especially...a team is READY to play...or they AIN'T
  *seldom does a team 'find it'...in-game or half-time


What happened ......?
 
If the favorite was up / tied at halftime?

2016
  *  < 12/25  (10X)    8-2 SU / 3-7 ATS (only lost the lead twice / but only covered 3)

  *  12/26-30  (11X)  8-3 SU / 4-7 ATS

  *   > 12/31  (9X)    7-2 SU / 5-4 ATS

IF DOG was up / tied?

  * < 12/25  (5X)     4-1 SU / 4-1 ATS

  *  12/26-30   (10X)  6-4 SU / 8-2 ATS

  *  > 12/31    -----------------

Team that covered the 1H / cover 2H too?
 
* < 12/25     7/13

  *  12/26-30  10/19

  *  > 12/31    3/9

How often did scoring change from 1H to 2H?
   meaning 1H went over > 2H went under and vice versa (seems like it happens a lot)
 
  *  < 12/25  9/13 flipped
  *  12/26-30  12/19 changed
  * > 12/31   only 1/9 changed 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:50:12 AM


THE BEST OF THE BEST INFO 


MANY THANKS BROTHER 


Might not Bet a Bowl game until the day of Kickoff 



WHOA OREGON minus anything under a TD would be a DOUBLE MORTGAGE WAGER 
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 12/4/2017 11:51:42 AM
2015

fav up?

  *  < 12/25            (8X)   8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS (they won every game / covered 6/8)

  *  12/25 - 12/30  (13)   11-2 SU / 10-3 ATS

  *  > 12/31            (11)   9-2 SU / 8-3 ATS

 DOG was up / tied?
 
* < 12/25          (6)       3-3 ATS (onl/y once when up)

  * 12/25 -12/30  (6)      5-1 ATS (that one tied when tied at half)

  * > 12/31           (3)      3-0 ATS

$    SO - ONLY ONE TIME...when the dog was up at halftime (9X)...did they not cover the game
   *looking at the 6 ties (at half)....favorite covered usually (4/6)

$$   ONLY TWICE....did the FAV (if down at the half) come back to win the game
    *really only ONCE did they come back and take charge the 2H....WKU.....down by only 4 tho.....won game by 10
  other was App St was down by 10....won last minute by 2 seems like


$$   How often does the team that covered 1H....cover 2H too?

  * < 12/25                only 4X....outta 12 games

  * 12/25 - 12/30       8/16

  * > 12/25                7/13
    
     >>  suggesting the LATER / more meaningful games...you are more likely to see a consistent effort from one half to another

$$   If 1H is high / low scoring.....2H likely to be the same?

  * < 12/25              8/12  2H was the opposite (meaning if 1H went over > 2H went under / vice versa)

  * 12/25 -12/30      only 7/16  2H was different

  *> 12/31                8/13 2H was opposite
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 12/4/2017 12:00:05 PM
UGGG   I am sorry Brother ...Hope they can Delete that horse post 



CANT WAIT TO SEE YOUR LEANS 

Will you be betting early or waiting ???


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Posted: 12/4/2017 12:04:40 PM
Great Stuff Bookie! Thank you 
nobaddameisaid PM nobaddameisaid
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Posted: 12/4/2017 12:24:04 PM
Good stuff, as always
Lionmonster PM Lionmonster
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Posted: 12/4/2017 1:43:49 PM
Thanks for a fantastic season and BOL in the bowls, BA
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Posted: 12/4/2017 2:46:12 PM
 Excellent work again bro.
befus PM befus
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Posted: 12/4/2017 3:48:34 PM
Thank you sir.    
EagesCoast PM EagesCoast
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Posted: 12/4/2017 5:14:04 PM
Was hoping to see this thread!! BOL 
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 12/4/2017 5:16:00 PM
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 12/4/2017 5:26:09 PM
FAU line went nuts...  I wouldn't touch that game even if my bookie let me bet it the day after it was played.   Kiffen loves messing with the number
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Posted: 12/4/2017 6:59:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:



AWESOME WORK Bookie...but did you include the DARK JERSEY vs WHITE JERSEY Records.....


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