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UTAH STATE @ WISCONSIN: You want to bet on a team that is like a Ford Pickup: Built Ford TOUGH!!!

Forum: College Football Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [College Football] Topic: UTAH STATE @ WISCONSIN: You want to bet on a team that is like a Ford Pickup: Built Ford TOUGH!!!
bpickin PM bpickin
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Posted: 9/1/2017 7:43:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bpickin:

Yep and parlay with under

whats up brother?

just dabbling for both week ones. i should be jumping in with both feet and my hard hat on WEEK2. week ones are typically parlays only for me to be in the game and no major risk. i have to see at least one whole slate before i start playing for real. 


zelo123 PM zelo123
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Posted: 9/1/2017 7:48:18 PM
       
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:48:24 PM
Wisconsin is built like a Ford Pinto at the moment
Rickey PM Rickey
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:50:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

2017: 34-35

When you take a team from a low-level conference to play one of the premier teams in college football, you want one word to embody that team: Tough.

You want them to be tougher than a the $2 sirloin special at Beefsteak Charlies.

You want them to be so tough, you could fork the steak off your plate, rest it on your shoulder and play it like a Stradavarius violin.

You want them to be so tough, that when John Candy goes to eat that steak in the Great Outdoors, you make him eat the gristle...leaving him face down on his plate at the end of it all. He finished you off, but just barely.

Well I have that tough $2 steak team right here for you: Utah State.

We won't win because we're on the road playing the Badgers. But we get a whopper of a spread (29) and enough guts and grit to get us inside this number. 

Let's talk about why we will cover.

1. Sharps love Utah State

Now sharps know Utah State so it's not like I'm revealing an incredible secret team here. How do we know sharps like them? Well it goes back to a post I made last year when I questioned a line with the thread title "Why is Wyoming only 6 point favorites over Utah State in Laramie?"

Now we all know how tough it is to play in Laramie. Just ask Boise State and SDSU. But on top of that, Wyoming was having one it's best seasons ever. Utah State conversely was mired in one of its worst and would miss a bowl completely. But despite all that, that line opened at -6 and closed at -4 Wyoming! That is SHARP money folks. There is no way around it. It is a smaller more obscure conference and Sharps were trusting that Utah State would turn it around on a bigger stage (and Wyoming would come crashing down to earth). Now that game didn't work out too well for the Sharps: Wyoming won 52-28.

But that line screamed Sharp money. Even the week before that, Utah State was only a 5 point dog at home to the might SDSU. They got crushed 40-13. 

But last season was an aberration. 

In the end Utah State is a sharp, more unknown buy. Over the long term that is a good side to be on. A profitable side. A sharp side. We get that here.

2. The Classic Buy Low/Sell High Theory

With Wisconsin, you'll alway be buying High on a line (Bad...you want to SELL high). They are one of the most public teams in all of college football.

With Utah State in 2017, getting over 4 TD's, you are Buying LOW. 

Why? The STAIN of last year's 3-9 debacle is rearing its ugly head in this spread. That is a GOOD thing. Because Utah State is much better than that.

How do we know? Phil Steele has a nice little "Stock Market Index" indicator formula for us to use. Take the average total wins from the 2 years prior to last year (2014 - 9 and 2015 - 6) and subtract 2016's total wins (3). That equals +4.5. Of 143 teams since 1990 that had a +4.5 "Stock Market Index" indicator, 108 improved the following year. That is a whopping 80.4% of the teams or 4 of 5 teams improve the next year.

No, that doesn't cover the spread for us. No, that doesn't prevent a blowout on the road against a top tier team.

What it does do is say Utah State WILL almost certainly be better (or has a great chance to) and that means this 29 is OVERVALUING the terrible year last year by giving out such a number and UNDERVALUING the team on the field this year, which will improve.

This puts us in a good spot ATS with such number (and it's a big one).







Already conceding; Nice calls on both of these games, SCAL. Nice work, congrats. 
The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:18:47 PM
How's your FADE SCAL forum doing?






Dbag
Steinway PM Steinway
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:25:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rickey:


Already conceding; Nice calls on both of these games, SCAL. Nice work, congrats. 

  4 quarters right  Amateur 
BallingLikeNE PM BallingLikeNE
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:26:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Steinway:


  4 quarters right  Amateur 

The dbag must be trying to reverse jinx himself or something lol

He already took 1 L
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:53:12 PM
This is as bad a second half as Purdue Penn State last year, both games tied at the half...

Except it's worse here because I'm getting 29 and only 17 on Purdue last year.

Can only hope to backdoor this one and that would be more of a miracle than anything.

UTU ruins a good night with Rutgers. 28 pt 3rd quarter. That's low level high school football...




steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:58:05 PM
45-0 last 20 game mins. 

My comments way back when don't seem so stupid now. 
davidgibson25 PM davidgibson25
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:03:39 AM
We have a chance come on wincosin just dont defend anymore come on its a blowout alreadyyyy
davidgibson25 PM davidgibson25
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:07:14 AM
Lol pathetic team
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:10:26 AM
Wow. About the worst fuc*ing throw you could make in that spot. Literally as though the defender was a receiver. Just horrendous. 42 pt second half.

To think Utah State was up 10-0.

Totally inept in every way in the second half. It's almost like the coach said "Listen I know the line is +29 but I want the Wisky teasers to cover too. So don't even try to fake it.".

That is how bad they are playing. Purdue Hazell level football right here.

House33 PM House33
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:10:31 AM
And thats that. Hard to say if Davis made that much of a difference...not sure it wouldve mattered with how bad the offense was for the last 55 minutes. 

Hindsight being 20/20, maybe they shouldnt have punted on 4th and short from the 38. That was their chance to put Wisky in a hole.
Jrod6 PM Jrod6
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:12:28 AM
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:12:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:

45-0 last 20 game mins. 

My comments way back when don't seem so stupid now. 

A little late there early bird.

You weren't chirping in the first half. And I'll bet 10 billion dollars you didn't take Wisky at the half.
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:16:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:


A little late there early bird.

You weren't chirping in the first half. And I'll bet 10 billion dollars you didn't take Wisky at the half.

I told you reasons not to bet this play and you were 100% dismissive. 

You are sucking it up 52-10 on a +29 ticket 

GL this year buddy 

mikebdb PM mikebdb
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:17:12 AM
change the jessie jakson foto....its bad luck for sure
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:21:36 AM
59-10

-20 against the number. 

scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:46:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


I told you reasons not to bet this play and you were 100% dismissive. 

You are sucking it up 52-10 on a +29 ticket 

GL this year buddy 


You're not really going to call this a 52-10 game are you like it's a vanilla win for Wisky are you?

Wisky backers SWEAT the entire way, right to the 10 yard line with 5 minutes left bud, a cover hanging in the balance.

A loss is a loss but don't talk, "Well 52-10, standard Wiksy bashing" because it wasn't that.

Please, it's insulting to posture that the final score is 52-10 and walk away. You're better than that. I would hope...Look at the texture of the game...
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:48:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikebdb:

change the jessie jakson foto....its bad luck for sure

Yes, it was for the perfectly capped Rutgers game wasn't it...
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:49:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:

59-10

-20 against the number. 


Ahh, I guess you are not better than that.

Embarrassing. 

On the verge of trolling. 

A 14 pt swing on a 99 yard INT return, as Wisky bettors writhe on the floor like they have gas pains laying 29 and your retort is. -20 against the number.

Embarrassing armchair QB post-game analysis. For a game you watched and that's what's worse. 
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:51:25 AM
Good luck the rest of the way scal. 


Don't be so dismissive to other people's viewpoint. 
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 1:03:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:

Good luck the rest of the way scal. 


Don't be so dismissive to other people's viewpoint. 

Wasn't being dismissive. 

I defend my stance against anyone and everyone (even Mr. Bator as I had a back and forth with the great one about Danny Green's three pt attempt in the corner in 2013 Game 6 and whether it was a foul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y994YFpvPJI)

That's just my MO. I'm very passionate about my sides:

1) Because I research them
2) think about them for weeks
3) write them up

So don't take it as being dismissive. It's the work I put in. 

P.S. That WAS a foul.


risktaker PM risktaker
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Posted: 9/2/2017 1:29:12 AM
we didn't get this one scal but at least we got Rutgers onto tomorrow we got few games going
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 9/2/2017 1:34:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by risktaker:

we didn't get this one scal but at least we got Rutgers onto tomorrow we got few games going

We will win tomorrow Risk. I really like UMass and I like ECU a close second.
 

I'll rank them again because I thought about them more:

1. Umass +3 (now -2.5)
2. ECU -1 (now -3)
3. MSU -17 and Notre Dame -14 (now -17 and -18 respectively)
4. Liberty +30.5 (now +29)

Week 2

1. Purdue -1 over Ohio 

Purdue -140 over 2.5 wins (now -160).

Rutgers +30.5 over Ohio State (September 30th).

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