QB
I looked at the @Louisville -23 over Purdue as well...Its a mismatch on paper...I am concerned about the connection of Petrino and Brohm while at W. Kentucky (Petrino HC and Brohm OC). Purdue has a new coach with new systems, playing at Lou in week 1. Two power 5 teams...Will Petrino call off the dogs after getting up big in week 1...Lou has NC (I like Lou if less than a TD), then Clemson.
I like the USC pick...4 and 5 star talent v. 2 and 3 star talent, with a new head coach who has never been a HC. USC always screws me...they are the West Coast version of Ga Tech, can't bet on them or against them, highly variable in outcomes. W Mich has 8 returning starters on D...I think they will play tough, though, I wonder how W Mich will score? The only recent benchmark opponent was Utah, who beat USC early in the season, then beat W Mich by 2 in the bowl game. Granted, that was early in the season for USC. It scares me a bit...USC has Stan and Texas on deck...Conventional wisdom would say that if USC can score almost 50 against a descent Penn State D, they should be able to score at least that much against W Mich, if they want to...And that's the key...motivation...Plus, from a technical perspective, the public will be big on USC, inflating the spread...The one thing I think USC backers will have going for them, is motivation for USC to erase the Game 1 debacle against Alabama to start 2016, as well as the perception by USC (and their fair weathered, yo, I am going to the NFL baby) players, that W. Michigan is a legit and up and coming MAC Program, that if they don't take seriously, could subject them to a possible upset, and thus repeat the ridicule of last season. HAve a Heisman Fave QB stud, in week 1, it could be a showcase for USC...I wish the spread were around USC -16
LSU - I just don't know. They have a 1st round RB, tons of talent...But, I still remember the Wisconsin game last year. I think by the end of the season, LSU will be legit...And I have tons of concerns about BYU and their 2nd year coach, but those Mormons won't quit for 60...Granted, its in Houston...a hotbed of recruiting for LSU...LSU did soundly defeat Texas Tech in a bowl game a few years ago at TRG or whatever its called. It is indeed a statement game for Ogeron. A lot of people will be looking at the D.
That's my $.02. I still have Texas #1 on my board, with the assumption that the spread stays at Texas -16 or lower...I like all three of the picks that you have presented. I just have given you some feedback to think about...BTW, this is how I analyze games...I look at every angle...I am not always right, but, I do the best I can. I am sure those who back dogs will criticize your picks. Week 1, is all about faves and chalk, from my perspective. But, in the long run, it all comes down to value, whether that be fave or dog...WORD!