Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:
Could you explain the difference between this year's defense and the one in 2010 after it lost all those players to the NFL as well?
I just remember you spouting the same stuff when Bama was traveling to Arkansas, claiming they'd win by like 30 when a few of us were all over the Hogs and a TD+
Now, that D ended up to be #6 in the country, so no doubt they were still solid by the end of the year- but Denard should be able to find the end zone a couple times simply because I'm not sold on the Bama defenders being able to attack at the right angles, be in the right positions, etc. as that grows as you mature in a player- and you mature as a playing by playing in more and more games.
With all that said- 34-17 or there abouts sounds about right for Bama
One of the biggest differences between 2010 and 2012 has noting to do with the defense at all, it has to do with the schedule. Recall that 5 of Alabama's conference opponents had bye weeks leading up to their game against Alabama. I noted in my preseason write-up that I thought Alabama would lose 1-2 of those games. They ended up losing 3 out of the 5.
As far as the defense is concerned, there is also a significant difference. Saban's first true recruiting class was 2008 so there really wasn't much quality depth on the 2010 roster, and there was even less experienced quality depth. That is not the case in 2012. All of the defensive starters have significant experience running Saban's defense. They are all very assignment sound.
One great example is CB Dee Milliner. As a true freshman in 2010, he was a new starting CB. In 2011 Phil Steele listed him as a returning starter. And even though he played significant minutes in every game in '11, he was not officially listed as the starter. So now in 2012 Phil Steele lists him as a "new" starter . . . again. Clearly Milliner will be a significatly better "new" starter in 2012 than he was in 2010. This is just one of many reasons that returning starter figures in pre-season magazines are often very misleading.
Yes Alabama dropped from #1 in defense in 2009 to #6 in 2010, and some of that was attributable to inexperience. But IMO the main reason was that their best two defensive players were hobbled with injuries all season. Not only were Marcell Dareus and Courtney Upshaw Alabama's best two defensive players, they were also their best two pass rushers and their amongst their most experienced defensive players. Save for the 1st game against San Jose State, Dareus and Upshaw were not healty the entire season until they played Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. They gave the country a glimpse of what Alabama's defense could have been in 2010 had they been healthy.
DR is a remarkable talent. There is no denying that. Unfortunately for Michigan, that is about all they have on that side of the ball. Yes, he may break a long run for a TD, but even if he does, it won't be nearly enough to win or cover. If you stop DR, you stop Michigan;s offense, and Saban isn't going to let one guy beat him (and I recognize that you don't think that'll happen either). Nevertheless, I just don't see it.
As for the Arkansas game in 2010, thanks soley to Greg McElroy, that was a perfect example of not cashing an almost perfectly handicapped game. I said Arkansas would not score more than 21 points (they scored 20), and I predicted a final score of 38-17. Had McElroy not missed two wide open and uncovered receivers for gimme TDs (both passes were intercepted), the final score would have been 38-13 or 38-20 (depending on whether you think Arkansas could have driven the length of the field for a TD in the last 1:50 of the first half).
I expect to see a similar line this season (under a TD), If so, I suspect that the majority of the forum will be on Arky again based on the flawed theory that what happened in 2010 will invaribly happen again in 2012. But as for me, I'll most likely be heavy on Bama again due to the huge mismatch in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Since being on Covers I've only missed two Max Bet games. That was one of them, and I have pretty much hated McElroy's guts ever since then.
BOL to you this season SNF!!!