Navy at Ball State
I could be way wrong here, but I really do not see tonights game as a tough call. we will see a Midshipman team without their starting QB and with a 1st year head coach travel into Indiana tonight and play one of the favorites to win the MAC Conference led by their starting QB Nate Davis.
Both teams tallied big wins last week against inferior opponents, however, Navy allowed a school that most people do not even know exists put up 330 yards through the air and score 13 points. While Ball state allowed 14 points they did show signs of tremendous improvement against the run allowing only 93 yards on the ground. Quite an accomplishment for a team that allowed 204 yards on the ground per game last year. Herein lies what I see will be the difference in tonights matchup. Navy, as they did last year, could not stop Towson, TOWSON, through the air and actually performed worse than they did last year when they allowed 263 yards per game in the air. Ball State, on the other hand, showed improvement in their are of weakness, against the run. So, we will have a potent passing attack facing a very soft pass defense, and a potent running attack facing an improved running defense.
While Navy certainly posted some imposing offensive stats last week, we have to remember who those stats came at the expense of...TOWSON. Shun White rumbled for an amazing 348 yards and three TDs, but, not to rain on his parade, those three TDs came on runs of 33, 87, and 73 yards respectively. Those three runs accounted for 55% of his total yards. The Navy offense unloaded 602 total yards on Towson with 558 of those yards coming on the ground! Backup QB Jarod Bryant added 75 yards and a TD on the ground while throwing for 44 yards. The Navy defense struggled as it did last year, against the passing game. They allowed TOWSON to rack up 330 yards in the air. Yes, they were awesome against the run holding TOWSON to a meager 30 yards, but again their pass defense was awful.
Ball State, unlike Navy, showed a balanced offensive attack in their win against N'Eastern last week. They put up 487 yards of total offense with 197 yards coming by way of the run and 290 yards coming via the air. QB Nate Davis played an alomost perfect game going 21 for 24 and posting 3 TDs. Defensively the Cardinals, as I stated earlier, allowed only 93 yards on the ground. While I am fully aware that N'Eastern has nowhere near the running attack that Navy possesses, it still represents a marked improvement from last year and their 204 yards rushing per game that they allowed.
These two played a great game against eachother last year which saw Ball State get out of Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium with a narrow 3 point win. There will be one key figure not on the field tonight that was there last year...Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Last year he accounted for 117 yards on the ground and 2 TDs.
So, in my opinion, we will see pretty much the same thing we saw last year with 2 glaring exceptions. One, Navy will be without their starting QB. Two, the Ball State run defense will be much better than it was last year. I guarantee that the Midshipman will not put 521 yards rushing on the board against Ball State like they did last year.
Finally, I do put some weight on the fact that Navy is playing under a new head coach. Not a lot of weight, but definately some.
As a little icing on the cake, I see that Navy is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a MAC opponent while Ball State is 7-2 ATS in it's last 9 against non-conference foes.
Without Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada and without any semblence of a pass defense, I see no way that Navy can stay within the spread in this one tonight. I see Davis inproving on his performance from last year against Navy. Considering that he was 19 for 33 for 277 yards and 3 TDs last year, it could be very ugly for Navy in Indiana tonight.
Ball State -6 (B1/2) 50 Units