Looking forward to a profitable Baseball season to build on the NCAAB success.
This year has started with a flip of previous years pitching biases for the most part. I think I have handle now on whats going on and the umpire tendences most importantly. As usual, wind, Day vs Night, righty vs lefty batting and umpire stats and tendencies weigh heavily on my capping selections.
1 Unit = $80 ($4000 starter).....
1Unit returns tend to avg 0.85 Units on my plays so regardless of greater odds or lesser, each win will equal +0.85 on a long season, each loss will equal -1.00 so therefore, a ROI per unit of $68 per unit win for me and I am aiming to be +30 Units by October.
BOL on the season if you follow
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Looking forward to a profitable Baseball season to build on the NCAAB success.
This year has started with a flip of previous years pitching biases for the most part. I think I have handle now on whats going on and the umpire tendences most importantly. As usual, wind, Day vs Night, righty vs lefty batting and umpire stats and tendencies weigh heavily on my capping selections.
1 Unit = $80 ($4000 starter).....
1Unit returns tend to avg 0.85 Units on my plays so regardless of greater odds or lesser, each win will equal +0.85 on a long season, each loss will equal -1.00 so therefore, a ROI per unit of $68 per unit win for me and I am aiming to be +30 Units by October.
Ryu is simply a dominant pitcher this year who is facing an inform Roark right now. Despite playing in a hitters park, expect the umpire to assist the craftiness and uber focus of the pitchers
LAD -1.5 1x
Trend in this series is to have one team dominate the other....go with that pattern but take the most consistent pitcher + stronger hitting team
Oakland -1.5 4x
Fiers is on fire.....has a < .200 batting avg vs this Tiger lineup and the A's have won 10 in a row vs. Detroit....oh.....and did I mention Detroit is sending out a left handed pitcher with a 2.67 WHIP and 13.5 ERA with a wind blowing to left field?
Other leans......strong >>> COL/PHIL Un 10 and Blue Jays win
- also LAA....Skaggs with strong ERA vs
KC and they are not hitting right now
very strong>>>> Milwaukee win...not sure how they
leave Atl without a win with this matchup
-also Arizona -1.5 .... SF terrible vs
lefties but Zona is .292 avg
May have more plays later.....especially the Sunday nighter
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Ryu is simply a dominant pitcher this year who is facing an inform Roark right now. Despite playing in a hitters park, expect the umpire to assist the craftiness and uber focus of the pitchers
LAD -1.5 1x
Trend in this series is to have one team dominate the other....go with that pattern but take the most consistent pitcher + stronger hitting team
Oakland -1.5 4x
Fiers is on fire.....has a < .200 batting avg vs this Tiger lineup and the A's have won 10 in a row vs. Detroit....oh.....and did I mention Detroit is sending out a left handed pitcher with a 2.67 WHIP and 13.5 ERA with a wind blowing to left field?
Other leans......strong >>> COL/PHIL Un 10 and Blue Jays win
- also LAA....Skaggs with strong ERA vs
KC and they are not hitting right now
very strong>>>> Milwaukee win...not sure how they
leave Atl without a win with this matchup
-also Arizona -1.5 .... SF terrible vs
lefties but Zona is .292 avg
May have more plays later.....especially the Sunday nighter
Brett Anderson of Oak had a big 6-0 game last fall vs the Indians and the Tribe are only batting .156 vs him. To add to the fact he might just wish to go after Cleveland is a very high wind with strong gusts blowing in from left field today....and its cool....so expect Anderson to attack the strike zone. Carrasco has a pattern of two stellar games and two avg to poor games so far this season. His night game era is very high. Did I mention both teams are batting low in this righty-lefty combo?
Guess where I am leaning.....and the Under smaller
Balt/Yanks... Orioles are not hitting.....Happ has excellent record/era vs Orioles....Cashner, not so much >> strong lean to Yankees RL
Mets/Wash.....Corbin has a good record vs this line up and wind protection with strong wind blowing to right field....Mets hitters have been pukey lately but hit lefties well. Gagnon is not reliable over long innings?
Phil/Cubs....wind coming in....terrible pitching stats so this is a gut pick....no thanks
Likely my play of the day.....Leake with a terrible BA vs Rangers andd 22mph jetstream blowing out from incoming centrefield wind....Minor has been lights out at home ! and good BA vs Seattle lineup so with an inform Rangers team and 0-4 recent road swoon by Seattle, I really like this spot.
Hou/CWS....leaning HOU RL....Peacock really pitching well in 3 of last 4 games and good at night. His team ERA is stellar vs this CWS lineup. Huge wind out to dead centre .....expect HOU to tee up on CWS starter and bullpen
SF/ATL....Soroka is lights out!! ATL hitting lefties at .270 clip but Suarez has good record vs this lineup......strong lean to the UNDER and ATL
Minn/Angels.....very strong lean to the OVER....wind blowing out....and Twins can flat out hit any pitcher...learn RL for Twins as well.....LAA hitting well in last 10 too
SD/ARIZ....should be an Under but total is too low for how this Zona team is ripping the ball now......lean Ariz despite an very good pitching matchup
Plays shortly
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Brett Anderson of Oak had a big 6-0 game last fall vs the Indians and the Tribe are only batting .156 vs him. To add to the fact he might just wish to go after Cleveland is a very high wind with strong gusts blowing in from left field today....and its cool....so expect Anderson to attack the strike zone. Carrasco has a pattern of two stellar games and two avg to poor games so far this season. His night game era is very high. Did I mention both teams are batting low in this righty-lefty combo?
Guess where I am leaning.....and the Under smaller
Balt/Yanks... Orioles are not hitting.....Happ has excellent record/era vs Orioles....Cashner, not so much >> strong lean to Yankees RL
Mets/Wash.....Corbin has a good record vs this line up and wind protection with strong wind blowing to right field....Mets hitters have been pukey lately but hit lefties well. Gagnon is not reliable over long innings?
Phil/Cubs....wind coming in....terrible pitching stats so this is a gut pick....no thanks
Likely my play of the day.....Leake with a terrible BA vs Rangers andd 22mph jetstream blowing out from incoming centrefield wind....Minor has been lights out at home ! and good BA vs Seattle lineup so with an inform Rangers team and 0-4 recent road swoon by Seattle, I really like this spot.
Hou/CWS....leaning HOU RL....Peacock really pitching well in 3 of last 4 games and good at night. His team ERA is stellar vs this CWS lineup. Huge wind out to dead centre .....expect HOU to tee up on CWS starter and bullpen
SF/ATL....Soroka is lights out!! ATL hitting lefties at .270 clip but Suarez has good record vs this lineup......strong lean to the UNDER and ATL
Minn/Angels.....very strong lean to the OVER....wind blowing out....and Twins can flat out hit any pitcher...learn RL for Twins as well.....LAA hitting well in last 10 too
SD/ARIZ....should be an Under but total is too low for how this Zona team is ripping the ball now......lean Ariz despite an very good pitching matchup
Two young pitchers with few ABs of hitters versus who should be guessing a lot while the strike zone gets pounded.....Mia alone should not score many so I see a 4-2 / 4-3/ 6-1 at worst kind of game
Strong lean to Milw/Cinci Un 8.5 with monster 17mph wind blowing in directly from left field.....both pitchers know how to pound the strike zone without fear and mix in their junk to see hittter chase....might pull the trigger later or in game
BOL
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Two young pitchers with few ABs of hitters versus who should be guessing a lot while the strike zone gets pounded.....Mia alone should not score many so I see a 4-2 / 4-3/ 6-1 at worst kind of game
Strong lean to Milw/Cinci Un 8.5 with monster 17mph wind blowing in directly from left field.....both pitchers know how to pound the strike zone without fear and mix in their junk to see hittter chase....might pull the trigger later or in game
Almost a perfect storm of Under catalysts....could have a lower ump but with a strong wind in from right field and two dominant pictures of the strike zone during the day......this SHOULD be easy but as we know, anything can happen in baseball!
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Almost a perfect storm of Under catalysts....could have a lower ump but with a strong wind in from right field and two dominant pictures of the strike zone during the day......this SHOULD be easy but as we know, anything can happen in baseball!
Ok.....I am going to do something that I usually hit, and it could put me in early trouble. I have lost a 2 Un/ then 4 Un.....now I double that and if I lose, I take my lumps and just move on with continued discipline (other than this move, which I like doing at least a half dozen times throughout the season)
Twins 8x
Martin Perez is 8-0 away and at night, so he is due for a loss but a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
I believe this is a perfect spot to NOT lose 3 in a row. Does one ride a losing bettor who has betting pedigree? Proceed with caution.....haha
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Ok.....I am going to do something that I usually hit, and it could put me in early trouble. I have lost a 2 Un/ then 4 Un.....now I double that and if I lose, I take my lumps and just move on with continued discipline (other than this move, which I like doing at least a half dozen times throughout the season)
Twins 8x
Martin Perez is 8-0 away and at night, so he is due for a loss but a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
I believe this is a perfect spot to NOT lose 3 in a row. Does one ride a losing bettor who has betting pedigree? Proceed with caution.....haha
a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
......checked it out.....looks good.....8X/s.....dang....looks SOLID...win or lose IN.....
a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
......checked it out.....looks good.....8X/s.....dang....looks SOLID...win or lose IN.....
a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
......checked it out.....looks good.....8X/s.....dang....looks SOLID...win or lose IN.....
Gotta crack an egg to make an omlette man!!! I dropped two eggs but no way was I going to let this opp pass me by....WINNER
Ok....season tally of what matters......+4 Un
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
a quick check of Harvey's home and evening splits, he is avg over 7.00 ERA. Minny is a pure hitting team which almost never falls into hitting slumps in a game, this year. Also, add to the fact the Angels are hitting .204 vs lefties.
......checked it out.....looks good.....8X/s.....dang....looks SOLID...win or lose IN.....
Gotta crack an egg to make an omlette man!!! I dropped two eggs but no way was I going to let this opp pass me by....WINNER
Braves win 3x...ump that garners very high Over totals so I fear this will be dynamite against Dakota Hudson, not Soroka who is in more control
Jays Under 10 1x ....Tichenor is the Ump and Jackson will get high and low strike out nibbles
Indians Under 8.5 1x...Under and high wind out to center....what to do?...two good pitchers so I go Under
Dodgers -1.5 1x ...superior pitcher
Baltimore +1.5 2x ....better pitcher and just in case Rockies bats come around late....was going to key Orioles but Rockies now how to slash for hits in their park against any reliever
Texas 2x ....trust Minor more than I trust Skaggs and Angels are terrible vs lefties
BOL
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Braves win 3x...ump that garners very high Over totals so I fear this will be dynamite against Dakota Hudson, not Soroka who is in more control
Jays Under 10 1x ....Tichenor is the Ump and Jackson will get high and low strike out nibbles
Indians Under 8.5 1x...Under and high wind out to center....what to do?...two good pitchers so I go Under
Dodgers -1.5 1x ...superior pitcher
Baltimore +1.5 2x ....better pitcher and just in case Rockies bats come around late....was going to key Orioles but Rockies now how to slash for hits in their park against any reliever
Texas 2x ....trust Minor more than I trust Skaggs and Angels are terrible vs lefties
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