|The key to picking winners in baseball is to not pick winners.
Posted: 5/10/2017 11:01:04 AM
The key is to look for value in relation to the line.
So if the Indians are playing a team whose starter is a southpaw, and the Indians are favored, (because oddsmakers love this team) then there's probably value in fading the Indians since their ops is like .600 against southpaws. Value = factors not accounted for by oddsmakers. Value = factors not accounted for by the public or "sharps" when either one puts a lot of money on a certain team or total, thus inducing the line to move tremendously.
That is what we look for: value. You cannot know who to bet on until you see the line/total.
Some things not accounted for by oddsmakers:
1) current form. I posted some in my thread yesterday. Arrieta, Weaver and Sabathia are currently auto-fades. (Arrieta because of his velocity drop, Weaver because his pitches have no velocity, and Sabathia because the average exit velocity of his pitches has starkls increased recently, meaning batters are hitting him very hard). Just bet the TT over of the team that they are facing, especially when these pitchers are on the road. Use common sense, of course. If Arrieta faces a Nationals lineup without Harper, Zimmerman, Lind, Rendon...you may want to reconsider.
2) splits. I posted in my thread last night to fade Miranda on the road and Cotton at night. Oddsmakers do not account for such random details but knowing those details is decisive. Know that Santana is amazing with extra rest (see his last game vs Oakland). Know that the Indians don't hit southpaws. But don't be lazy! There are no quick ways to win. Those are things to look for to help you decide, in your limited time, which games are worth looking into more deeply, which games are worth capping. But those are not always the 'end' factor. If you are out of time and want to make a bet, and you see Arrieta on there, don't bet on the fg of the team that he is facing, because you didn't cap the fg, just bet the tt over for that team. Do your research and bet what you cap!
3) Upside/downside. Baseball is special because we can statistically account for luck. Be wary of pitchers with low ERA but high fip or pitchers with a babip that is very high in relation to their career average as those pitchers are statistically 'due' for an unlucky game. Recent victims are Gio Gonzalez in Baltimore and Kendall Graveman against the Twins. Recent pitchers who have finally had the success they were 'due' for include Taijuan Walker in San Diego and Josh Tomlin against the Royals.
Yank yourself away from the temptation of betting full games. I know we automatically like to bet the full game. There are so many micro-factors in baseball that, unlike in any other sport, we should adjust and become micro-bettors. For instance, some teams should make you wary of ever betting on them full game because of their horrible bullpen. Do you like Chacin at home (you should!) you probably don't want to bet the full game though because of the bullpen, especially if Hand is fatigued.
Don't lay more than -140 (?) juice. There's no automatic number. But if you like a team THAT much to lay so much juice on them, you need to just bet them on the run line. The strongest team to bet on the run line seems to be the Astros. Not just that they are consistently winning by more than one run, but that they score a lot of runs. The higher the run total, the more statistically likely it is that there will be a greater variation of final scores. That means, the more statistical value there automatically is for the favorite. So I also like Arizona in their batter-friendly ballpark.
On the flip side, if Chris Sale is squaring off with Andrew Triggs and the run total set by oddsmakers is something low (under 8), you might want to consider the value in the +1.5 for underdog Oakland, as the game is likely to be low-scoring, and so the underdog is more likely to be within a run, at worst.
Sunday Night Baseball: Look to bet the 'under' on these huge primetime affairs. On these ESPN games, same with Monday Night Football, the public loves to bet the 'over.' Oddsmakers are aware of that and will shade the run total, creating value for the 'under.' Did a team just score 23 runs and make a public splash and become a media darling? Consider fading them or betting the under in their next game(s). Look at the Nats' series vs the Diamondbacks as a recent example. Don't be swept away, so that you're being unreasonable. Imagine the unimaginable but don't miss the obvious.
Looking at line movement: don't look at it. Unless you know which book the sharps come from, just focus on getting the best number, like in any other sport! I like the Pinnacle sharps, I trust them and I would watch out if they make a side steam. Maybe there are a couple of other good books. But if Bovada sharps (lol) are going to bet Maeda in the favorite role in Chase Field, where he's always bad, i'm going to fade Maeda!
I don't care to post plays on here on this forum, with all the trolls, if you want to see my record, you can ask for my e-mail and I can send a screenshot. But I have nothing to prove to anybody. I will share pieces of my research and you can discuss them, ignore them, follow them, whatever you want. I used to work for a site that sold picks but decided I didn't want to make money off of people. Feel free to contact me with questions. I am easy to reach.