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Reverse Line Movements

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Reverse Line Movements
tiamat1478 PM tiamat1478
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 759
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Posted: 10/16/2012 4:22:08 PM

I was wondering if anyone has experience betting reverse line movements. The type of situation I am talking about is when the public is betting heavily on one team (say 75% usually on the favorite) yet the line moves toward the other team (usually the underdog).

I know this is probably because "sharks" or professional handicappers are betting alot of money on the underdog. I have been told in the past to never bet on the favorite in this situation and sure enough it seems like the underdog always wins. It happened on Sunday when the public was on the Giants but the like moved toward the Cardinals. Sure enough the Cardinals won 6-4.

The idea came to me then, what if instead of betting the favorite when I see this happen, I bet on the underdog (the same team the sharks are betting on). Does anyone have experience doing this? Does it lead to long term profits or is it just another stupid idea that will lose just like all my other ideas have?

Anyone willing to share their thoughts please.

slowphenomenon PM slowphenomenon
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1851
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Posted: 10/16/2012 4:24:47 PM
blind playing reverse line movement doesn't work, have to find a statistical edge
Pendo PM Pendo
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3390
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Posted: 1/23/2013 10:39:16 PM
Stat Edge can be as simple as Volume, %ages, and even home dog.
Thus, I agree with slow phenom: rlm in and of itself won't pass muster long term
Forum: MLB Betting
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