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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

Forum: MLB Betting Page 14 of 58 «  12 13 14 15 16   »
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#326
Posted: 5/28/2013 1:02:28 PM
For 5.28.2013 Take:

#954 Houston Astros +162 ($258 to win $417.96)
over the Colorado Rockies

Home Dogs are 12-5 (70.6%, +8.54 units, +50.2% roi) in Interleague games this season.
gbpackman PM gbpackman
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quote#327
Posted: 5/28/2013 3:10:13 PM
The Twins entered the series opener in similar fashion as Milwaukee, but won for the second time in three games following a 10-game losing streak. 
The Twins are a so so team.
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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quote#328
Posted: 5/28/2013 6:12:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 5.28.2013 Take:

#954 Houston Astros +162 ($258 to win $417.96)
over the Colorado Rockies

Home Dogs are 12-5 (70.6%, +8.54 units, +50.2% roi) in Interleague games this season.

Herb, my data shows 16-8 up 7.91 units including today. There was 5 home dog winners just yesterday
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#329
Posted: 6/9/2013 12:46:35 PM
Sorry, haven't been online much. Bought a house and it has been a real pain in the behind...

For today (6.9.2013) take:

#968 Detroit Tigers -1 +122 ($430 to win $524.60)
over the Cleveland Indians

Detroit tops the league in a three year duration for units won on the runline as home favorites so for this one, take either the -1 or the -1.5. For home teams in general , I prefer the -1 as they get one less inning than the visitor if they get ahead.

Cleveland is on a nasty skid, they do badly there and also on road stands...Detroit is good at exploiting cheap or average bullpens.


herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#330
Posted: 6/10/2013 11:51:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Sorry, haven't been online much. Bought a house and it has been a real pain in the behind...

For today (6.9.2013) take:

#968 Detroit Tigers -1 +122 ($430 to win $524.60) WINNER!
over the Cleveland Indians

Detroit tops the league in a three year duration for units won on the runline as home favorites so for this one, take either the -1 or the -1.5. For home teams in general , I prefer the -1 as they get one less inning than the visitor if they get ahead.

Cleveland is on a nasty skid, they do badly there and also on road stands...Detroit is good at exploiting cheap or average bullpens.



New Bankroll: $6,317.56 (+57.9 units)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#331
Posted: 6/10/2013 11:55:05 AM
For 6.10.2013 take:

#910 Baltimore Orioles +116 ($87 to win $100.92)
over the LA Angels

List: Weaver / Garcia

In Baltimore:
*Home dogs (not July or August) are SU : 2146-2530 (-0.66, 45.9%, +86.19 units)...or +1.8% roi in a 4600+ game sample!
**Jered Weaver is 76-28 (73.1%, +29.09 units) at home. 73.5% as a home favorite. That rounds out to a nice career record and people end up hating to bet against Weaver...and usually they love wherever they can get him cheap (ironically that is where he fails): on the road it is a whole different story...he's just 58-52 -0.59 units
*The Angels are just 20-27 -15 units this season against right handed starters. You may not see a lot of offense...consider the +1 for the O's today...
*They're just 13-22 -16.92 units this season after a loss. 
*Freddy Garcia is 39-26 +20.75 units , +31.9% roi career as a dog. 
*The O's are 20-5 +18.26 units, 80%, +66.3% roi since 2011 against bad .350 to .450 teams.

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#332
Posted: 6/12/2013 11:10:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 6.10.2013 take:

#910 Baltimore Orioles +116 ($87 to win $100.92) WINNER!
over the LA Angels

List: Weaver / Garcia

In Baltimore:
*Home dogs (not July or August) are SU : 2146-2530 (-0.66, 45.9%, +86.19 units)...or +1.8% roi in a 4600+ game sample!
**Jered Weaver is 76-28 (73.1%, +29.09 units) at home. 73.5% as a home favorite. That rounds out to a nice career record and people end up hating to bet against Weaver...and usually they love wherever they can get him cheap (ironically that is where he fails): on the road it is a whole different story...he's just 58-52 -0.59 units
*The Angels are just 20-27 -15 units this season against right handed starters. You may not see a lot of offense...consider the +1 for the O's today...
*They're just 13-22 -16.92 units this season after a loss. 
*Freddy Garcia is 39-26 +20.75 units , +31.9% roi career as a dog. 
*The O's are 20-5 +18.26 units, 80%, +66.3% roi since 2011 against bad .350 to .450 teams.


New Bankroll: $6,418.48 (+60.46 units)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#333
Posted: 6/12/2013 11:11:38 AM
Diamondbacks today for +105 ($89 to win $93.45)
List Corbin and Ryu
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#334
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:06:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Diamondbacks today for +105 ($89 to win $93.45) WINNER!
List Corbin and Ryu

New Bankroll: $6,511.93 (+62.8 units)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#335
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:10:23 AM
For today take: 

Oakland -1 +138 ($90 to win $124.20)
List: Parker

*Oakland is 45-27 +19.99 units (+24.7% roi) since 2012 at home vs. plus .500 teams.
*Career, Jarrod Parker is 21-11 +12.34 units where the total is between 6.5 and 9.0.

Hint: Google '1RL Calculator' to make your own free runline and beat the offered odds...you can find a free excel application.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#336
Posted: 6/14/2013 2:19:11 AM
pushed
cappernyc PM cappernyc
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quote#337
Posted: 6/14/2013 4:08:41 AM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#338
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:55:43 AM
For 6.15.2013 Take:

#966 Baltimore +104 ($90 to win $93.6)
over the Boston Red Sox

List: Garcia / Lackey

*Since 2009, -150 to -100 teams seeking revenge for a shutout loss are just 94-114 (45.2%, -38.08 units, +12.9% roi to fade).
***That's 57-84 (+23.4% roi to fade) if the team is above .500 and a massive 22-44 (+37.5% roi to fade) if the opponent is above .500 as well!

*The Orioles are 76-63 (54.7%, +36.25 units, +26.1% roi) since 2012 as underdogs.
**That's 54-42 (56.2%, +31% roi) against plus .500 teams. SU: 31-21 (59.6%, +20.61 units, +39.6% roi) against plus .500 division teams.

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#339
Posted: 6/15/2013 11:56:26 AM
Current Bankroll: $6,511.93 (+62.8 units)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#340
Posted: 6/16/2013 7:19:38 AM
Take: Oakland -1 +128 ($180 to win $230.40)
List Colon / Iwakuma

*Oakland is a nice solid 49-27 (+22.21 units, +24.2% roi) since 2012, at home, against right handed starters.
*The Oakland A's are 23-6 (79.3%, +13.72 units, +30.1% roi) on the ML since 2012 as home favorites against sub .500 teams where the total is between 6.5 and 9.
*That's 20-9 (60.9%, +19.24 units, +66.2% roi) on the runline. Bartolo Colon 4-1 SU and 4-1 on the RL in this spot.

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#341
Posted: 6/18/2013 3:24:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Take: Oakland -1 +128 ($180 to win $230.40) WINNER!
List Colon / Iwakuma

*Oakland is a nice solid 49-27 (+22.21 units, +24.2% roi) since 2012, at home, against right handed starters.
*The Oakland A's are 23-6 (79.3%, +13.72 units, +30.1% roi) on the ML since 2012 as home favorites against sub .500 teams where the total is between 6.5 and 9.
*That's 20-9 (60.9%, +19.24 units, +66.2% roi) on the runline. Bartolo Colon 4-1 SU and 4-1 on the RL in this spot.


Current Bankroll: $6,652.33 (+66.31 units)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#342
Posted: 6/18/2013 3:26:56 PM
For 6.18.2013 Take:

Pittsburgh +1 +113 ($92 to win $103.96)
over the Reds

List: Morton / Latos


tommyd222 PM tommyd222
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quote#343
Posted: 6/18/2013 3:35:35 PM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#344
Posted: 6/22/2013 11:34:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 6.18.2013 Take:

Pittsburgh +1 +113 ($92 to win $103.96) WINNER!
over the Reds

List: Morton / Latos



Current Bankroll: $6,756.29 (+68.91 units)
from $4000

For today (6.22.2013) Take:

San Diego -1 +144 ($93 to win $133.92)
over the LA Dodgers

List: Volquez / Greinke


ringoboy11 PM ringoboy11
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quote#345
Posted: 6/22/2013 12:38:08 PM
Are you posting anymore?
ringoboy11 PM ringoboy11
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quote#346
Posted: 6/22/2013 12:40:46 PM
How's the work on the house going?
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#347
Posted: 6/28/2013 4:29:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ringoboy11:

How's the work on the house going?

Thanks for asking. Lots of work and it is keeping me a little too busy to run my main business and post here regularly.

I'm taking Tampa Bay today as home dogs. We're up another 10-15% since I last posted!

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#348
Posted: 6/28/2013 4:31:18 PM
(For today)

Tampa Bay +126 ($184 to win $231.84)
over the Detroit Tigers

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#349
Posted: 7/2/2013 2:01:24 PM
Two Team Parlay:
#910 Atlanta Braves ML
#921 Tampa Bay Rays ML
($276 units to win $326.80)

*Since 2009, -150 and up favorites are 176-56 (75.9%, +79.58 units, +19.3% roi) in July division games.
You could substitute Texas (ML) here for Tampa Bay; however, I think we've got a better bet in TB and a better starting pitcher.
**The Astros are just 9-45 (16.7%) SU since 2011 in July games. 3-25 (10.7%, -21.23 units) SU since 2012.

*Kris Medlen is 17-2 SU (89.2%, +14.56 units, +50.9% roi) in division games (career).
gbpackman PM gbpackman
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quote#350
Posted: 7/3/2013 11:32:07 AM
Nice win! I was worried about Medlin at first. He seemed off his game. He was lights out last year. I guess you could call it a semi-sophomore slump.
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