Right here, bud.
Your model seems to like the Cards and Mets a lot.
Admittedly, Nolasco has struggled a ton lately which most definitely is factored into your model. However, the way you and I cap is different so we are not going to agree here. You can see my thoughts on why I'm on the Fish in my thread.
As for the NYM/CHC game, huge pitching edge for New York. But you can't make Travis Wood a +219 home dog when he was a +190 away dog against a better pitcher and team (Peavy and the White Sox). More likely, you're probably seeing a -135/+125 line for Peavy at home against Santana. That gives Peavy a 15 cent edge over Santana, meaning most likely Wood is something like +175 if this game were in New York. With a line this big I'm using 50 cents for a swing from New York to Chicago, making Wood a +125 home dog.
Right here, bud.
Your model seems to like the Cards and Mets a lot.
Admittedly, Nolasco has struggled a ton lately which most definitely is factored into your model. However, the way you and I cap is different so we are not going to agree here. You can see my thoughts on why I'm on the Fish in my thread.
As for the NYM/CHC game, huge pitching edge for New York. But you can't make Travis Wood a +219 home dog when he was a +190 away dog against a better pitcher and team (Peavy and the White Sox). More likely, you're probably seeing a -135/+125 line for Peavy at home against Santana. That gives Peavy a 15 cent edge over Santana, meaning most likely Wood is something like +175 if this game were in New York. With a line this big I'm using 50 cents for a swing from New York to Chicago, making Wood a +125 home dog.
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