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Will the sports betting world we know and love become OBSOLETE when it is legalized nationally???

Forum: NBA Betting Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Will the sports betting world we know and love become OBSOLETE when it is legalized nationally???
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 2/11/2018 2:36:18 PM
Here is the gambling world we know and love:

We look at lines and we can find games where we have an advantage.

We specialize in obscure conferences in the CFB and CBB and are able to hammer games no one focuses one.

That is what makes us money: Finding edges in lines and match-ups. Whether we do it through angles or algorithms is not the point. It's that we do it.

Most of us here are WINNING gamblers in terms of being over the breakeven point with the vig (about 53% of your bets are winners).

The problem is we don't flat bet and lose our profits in chunks. It's a disease we have. But that is not the issue of this thread.

The issue is this:

Once sports betting is legalized, guess who gets in on it?....BIG BUSINESS. 

And Big Business, when it sees a LEGAL avenue to making money, just like the stock market (hedge funds are an example), it will exploit it.

And worse it has the assets to MAXIMIZE that exploitation, that is, it can invest tens of millions and perhaps hundreds of millions in algorithms, AI and billions of simulations to determine an outcome with relation to the spread. It won't be perfect, but it will be damn good. The biggest and best minds in the world will be hired to develop these programs. These won't be good cappers, but they will be good at predicting a market outcome, be it stock (currently happening so why wouldn't it happen with sports betting) or sports bet. 

This will not be sophisticated at first, but over time, as their models are refined and enhanced, they will start to win, and perhaps win big with very large wagers on games they are confident in. 

If you think this is a fairy tale and not the future you are wrong:

Businesses will enter the market and start to take over, and worse even pool MORE assets from the masses (just like a stockbroker does for a certain stock that he invests in on your behalf) to invest in a side for you and them.


scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 2/11/2018 2:38:02 PM
What will be the result of all this? Several things:

1) Lines will become VERY SHARP.

The NFL I believe has the sharpest lines (why? They have the biggest handle per game! March Madness is not a 'game' and should not be included in the comparison). Now this will spread across all sports.

When the lines become sharper, we lose our edge, or at least a lot of it.

2) Obscure games in the smaller college conferences will be exploited and therefore no longer 'obscure'.

3) There will be more corruption. 

Obviously unpaid college athletes (and even high school athletes!) will want a piece of this pie. With millions of gamblers and hundreds of billions of legal dollars flowing through the gambling economy, people will be paid, be it refs or players.

This makes it far harder to cap a game rationally. If a game is fixed, be it one fumble or free throw, we lose a massive edge.

Imagine if a college player did something that affected the price of a stock. And all he had to do was turn the ball over 5 times and the stock would go up. And he'd be paid on the side for that result. That will happen in the game as legal stocks are traded in the sports betting markets on sides. There will be too many legal dollars involved. 

The result: Our capping will be more subject to randomness, something we attempt to minimize, and game fixing.

4) Finally, the response by the books to the above three will be harsh as they look to maintain and recoup profits: They will raise vigs, possibly to -120 (driving us back into the black market for reduced juice and it will surely be there as a lure) and lower LIMITS and perhaps pull options completely (have 'circled' games which limit us).

With lower limits and raised vigs, we lose our profits.

Gil Alexander on VSIN Sirius XM is a sharp baseball bettor. A pro per se. He's good.

So he walks into a sports book in Vegas and wants to play the MLB season win totals (just released). He wanted the Dodgers over and the Royals under. The bets don't matter really. What matters is they had a $500 max on those bets (peanuts when you do this for a living).

They asked for his ID, saw he was Gil Alexander (he's no Billy Walters folks, just a voice on VSIN with a podcast) and they limited him to....$200 a bet. $200 dollars.....NOTHING for a pro.

A casino, making massive profits in the hundreds of millions per year....wants to limit what they think is a 'sharp' to a $200 on a measly MLB future. That's happening TODAY.

I tell this story because the betting houses, in the future, when they get hit hard by these big businesses which essentially will be legal syndicates, will start to LIMIT US. If they currently limit ONE person they think is sharp, they will certainly limit the masses if they feel they are at a disadvantage.

Footnotes:

Initial Reaction: Hey great! Betting is legal in the US! No more late payouts and shady dealings with offshore sites!

Reality: Sharper lines, higher vigs, fewer smaller conference games, and restrictive caps on bets. Oh and TAXES, perhaps taken out for the State and Fed right off the top!

I'm looking forward to it in 1, 2, 3 years. But the joy will be short-lived IMO!
Vapster PM Vapster
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Posted: 2/11/2018 2:49:23 PM
Good Read. Thanks
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 2/11/2018 2:51:24 PM
Cap
Vapster PM Vapster
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Posted: 2/11/2018 2:58:47 PM
I don't disagree with anything your saying
Qwan61 PM Qwan61
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Posted: 2/11/2018 5:58:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Here is the gambling world we know and love:

We look at lines and we can find games where we have an advantage.

We specialize in obscure conferences in the CFB and CBB and are able to hammer games no one focuses one.

That is what makes us money: Finding edges in lines and match-ups. Whether we do it through angles or algorithms is not the point. It's that we do it.

Most of us here are WINNING gamblers in terms of being over the breakeven point with the vig (about 53% of your bets are winners).

The problem is we don't flat bet and lose our profits in chunks. It's a disease we have. But that is not the issue of this thread.

The issue is this:

Once sports betting is legalized, guess who gets in on it?....BIG BUSINESS. 

And Big Business, when it sees a LEGAL avenue to making money, just like the stock market (hedge funds are an example), it will exploit it.

And worse it has the assets to MAXIMIZE that exploitation, that is, it can invest tens of millions and perhaps hundreds of millions in algorithms, AI and billions of simulations to determine an outcome with relation to the spread. It won't be perfect, but it will be damn good. The biggest and best minds in the world will be hired to develop these programs. These won't be good cappers, but they will be good at predicting a market outcome, be it stock (currently happening so why wouldn't it happen with sports betting) or sports bet. 

This will not be sophisticated at first, but over time, as their models are refined and enhanced, they will start to win, and perhaps win big with very large wagers on games they are confident in. 

If you think this is a fairy tale and not the future you are wrong:

Businesses will enter the market and start to take over, and worse even pool MORE assets from the masses (just like a stockbroker does for a certain stock that he invests in on your behalf) to invest in a side for you and them.






I get your point but big business is not going to be thrilled at 10K max bets or whatever.

They will keep out big business with limits and they wont bother with sports gambling. It would like a big business playing penny slots.
rickybuckets PM rickybuckets
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Posted: 2/11/2018 6:13:42 PM
calm down.  only a couple states will follow thru on making it legal.  nj and indiana.  maybe a few more later but not each state.  u dont think big business already have put in resources to beat the book?  there are also limits on bets as well.  nothing is gonna change since this has always been going on wether it was in nevada or offshore
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/13/2018 2:26:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Most of us here are WINNING gamblers in terms of being over the breakeven point with the vig


pointspreadking PM pointspreadking
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Posted: 2/13/2018 3:01:32 PM

Not worried.

Navi PM Navi
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Posted: 2/13/2018 3:34:50 PM
Who do you like for tonight Scal

Thats whats on everyone mind
The_Extremist PM The_Extremist
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Posted: 2/13/2018 4:20:19 PM
you're making it sound like this is happening in the future?? right now corporations can place bets using clients money as "investment" by betting on sports in Vegas as we speak. Something that started about 2 years ago. It hasn't made anyone go out and hire a genius computer nerd to come up with a winning formula. Risk is still a risk. No guarantee in sports betting. 
With this new law that passed as long as all the members of the group are named when placing the large bet in Vegas it's completely legal and count as investment when the corp returns profits to it's members. only rules are it has to be INC. in Vegas and must show who it's members are but the members are not allowed to have any voice how the bets are placed. It's happening right now my friend and nobody is turning to be billionaire yet. Because just like everything else.. nobody can forsee the future. it's gambling anyway you look at . call it investing if you want but stocks or sports.. it's the same sht...
The_Extremist PM The_Extremist
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Posted: 2/13/2018 4:22:08 PM
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/jun/08/nevada-law-allows-businesses-investors-bet-sports/
htrain34 PM htrain34
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Posted: 2/13/2018 6:26:11 PM
The vig will increase once the states figure out sports betting isn’t a cash cow like a slot machine or the lottery. Politicians have overspent and will take as much as they can to make up for their mistakes. You should be very concerned. Great read.
pointspreadking PM pointspreadking
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Posted: 2/14/2018 2:32:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by htrain34:

The vig will increase once the states figure out sports betting isn’t a cash cow like a slot machine or the lottery. Politicians have overspent and will take as much as they can to make up for their mistakes. You should be very concerned. Great read.

Just like any other OPEN maket they will have to under cut their competition. domestic bookies will still have to bring their juices down to match offshore bookies.

 

I personally would like sports bettinng to become 100% legal bring it out of the shadows and actually have it commissioned to keep foul play out. You use an offshore bookie im pretty positive. You telling me none of these kids that go to college can turn their computer on and make online bets? or have a roommate do it? The problems you fear are already here. 

 

Oh and about "them" becoming more accurate with lines, Vegas has the biggest and brightest minds making these lines so youre about 50 years late on that problem..

packersbackers PM packersbackers
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Posted: 2/14/2018 3:03:36 PM
interesting debate indeed...I think sports betting will become another state run lotto eventually if they do use AI and game predictor simulations as sharp as they can make the lines...winning will become nearly impossible in the longrun, and people will eventually see it as a lottery rather than a smart person's ability to cap and break down a game looking for any edge possible....sad to say we are living in the glory days of sports betting now, the future is going to radically change and it wont be good for the average recreational bettor...time will tell, hopefully these changes happen really slow and we won't be impacted too much over the next decade....but -110 lines will be a thing of the past very soon, which really is the sad part of the direction of sports betting in general...pretty soon -125 lines each way will become the norm, if not even -130.

Popularity of futures and props will ultimately be where the major action will be, in my opinion, as people will look to get more action for their buck, and thus betting futures and props can sometimes last you an entire seasons worth of cheering for one single wager.
packersbackers PM packersbackers
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Posted: 2/14/2018 3:05:56 PM
although, I don't see any reason why North America cannot adapt the British philosophies and business practices of sports wagering...they have it perfected and why America doesn't copy their system is beyond me....7-11's and convenient stores are just as common in the states as a William Hill betting kiosk at any random street corner in England
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:30:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pointspreadking:

Oh and about "them" becoming more accurate with lines, Vegas has the biggest and brightest minds making these lines so youre about 50 years late on that problem..




The lines are actually created by offshore books. The Las Vegas sportsbooks employ mostly idiots who simply copy offshore lines, and some of these morons can’t even do that right!
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:32:55 PM
“Vegas has the biggest and brightest minds making these lines....”


 <——-can’t stop laughing 
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:40:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers:

winning will become nearly impossible in the longrun, and people will eventually see it as a lottery rather than a smart person's ability to cap and break down a game looking for any edge possible....sad to say we are living in the glory days of sports betting now, the future is going to radically change and it wont be good for the average recreational bettor.....-110 lines will be a thing of the past very soon


I agree with all of that. Fortunately, offshore books and illegal bookies will be able to stay in business, easily undercutting whatever huge rip-off legalized betting is eventually allowed in the United States, which, like packersbackers said, will be unbeatable in the long run. NO SPORTS BETTOR SHOULD BE ROOTING FOR BETTING TO BECOME LEGALIZED.
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:43:08 PM
P.S. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is the devil. His greed is repugnant, such a person for the dollar.
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:44:13 PM
person = wh.ore
Qwan61 PM Qwan61
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Posted: 2/14/2018 7:33:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by packersbackers:

interesting debate indeed...I think sports betting will become another state run lotto eventually if they do use AI and game predictor simulations as sharp as they can make the lines...winning will become nearly impossible in the longrun, and people will eventually see it as a lottery rather than a smart person's ability to cap and break down a game looking for any edge possible....sad to say we are living in the glory days of sports betting now, the future is going to radically change and it wont be good for the average recreational bettor...time will tell, hopefully these changes happen really slow and we won't be impacted too much over the next decade....but -110 lines will be a thing of the past very soon, which really is the sad part of the direction of sports betting in general...pretty soon -125 lines each way will become the norm, if not even -130.Popularity of futures and props will ultimately be where the major action will be, in my opinion, as people will look to get more action for their buck, and thus betting futures and props can sometimes last you an entire seasons worth of cheering for one single wager.

 

If they can get the lines EXTREMELY accurate then bet intra-game if the team is overvalued or undervalued..

bpickin PM bpickin
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Posted: 2/14/2018 7:36:31 PM
Sorry but I stopped reading at, most of us here are WINNING...


GTFO. 
JuiceBook PM JuiceBook
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Posted: 2/15/2018 1:30:13 AM
scal always thinks five steps ahead. master chess player. i bet you he is good at chess.
thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 2/15/2018 1:12:38 PM
Disagree with almost everything in this thread except for MrBator's comments.

Legalizing sports betting the USA won't have any effect on sharp bettors because the juice will be too high.  In Canada, they make you parlay games, but if you have pushes and your pointspread bet is reduced to a straight bet, you win 25 cents on a dollar bet.  By definition, a sharp bettor won't make this bet.

I hope I am wrong an we see reduced juice, but there is no reason to believe this will be the case because the average Joe doesn't understand juice.  The juice on lotteries is -200...  and look how much tax is there on other "sinful" things like cigarettes and weed?

Now, if they allowed Americans to open accounts with the Pinnacles and BetFairs of the gambling world...
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