Posted: 2/11/2018 2:38:02 PM
What will be the result of all this? Several things:
1) Lines will become VERY SHARP.
The NFL I believe has the sharpest lines (why? They have the biggest handle per game! March Madness is not a 'game' and should not be included in the comparison). Now this will spread across all sports.
When the lines become sharper, we lose our edge, or at least a lot of it.
2) Obscure games in the smaller college conferences will be exploited and therefore no longer 'obscure'.
3) There will be more corruption.
Obviously unpaid college athletes (and even high school athletes!) will want a piece of this pie. With millions of gamblers and hundreds of billions of legal dollars flowing through the gambling economy, people will be paid, be it refs or players.
This makes it far harder to cap a game rationally. If a game is fixed, be it one fumble or free throw, we lose a massive edge.
Imagine if a college player did something that affected the price of a stock. And all he had to do was turn the ball over 5 times and the stock would go up. And he'd be paid on the side for that result. That will happen in the game as legal stocks are traded in the sports betting markets on sides. There will be too many legal dollars involved.
The result: Our capping will be more subject to randomness, something we attempt to minimize, and game fixing.
4) Finally, the response by the books to the above three will be harsh as they look to maintain and recoup profits: They will raise vigs, possibly to -120 (driving us back into the black market for reduced juice and it will surely be there as a lure) and lower LIMITS and perhaps pull options completely (have 'circled' games which limit us).
With lower limits and raised vigs, we lose our profits.
Gil Alexander on VSIN Sirius XM is a sharp baseball bettor. A pro per se. He's good.
So he walks into a sports book in Vegas and wants to play the MLB season win totals (just released). He wanted the Dodgers over and the Royals under. The bets don't matter really. What matters is they had a $500 max on those bets (peanuts when you do this for a living).
They asked for his ID, saw he was Gil Alexander (he's no Billy Walters folks, just a voice on VSIN with a podcast) and they limited him to....$200 a bet. $200 dollars.....NOTHING for a pro.
A casino, making massive profits in the hundreds of millions per year....wants to limit what they think is a 'sharp' to a $200 on a measly MLB future. That's happening TODAY.
I tell this story because the betting houses, in the future, when they get hit hard by these big businesses which essentially will be legal syndicates, will start to LIMIT US. If they currently limit ONE person they think is sharp, they will certainly limit the masses if they feel they are at a disadvantage.
Initial Reaction: Hey great! Betting is legal in the US! No more late payouts and shady dealings with offshore sites!
Reality: Sharper lines, higher vigs, fewer smaller conference games, and restrictive caps on bets. Oh and TAXES, perhaps taken out for the State and Fed right off the top!
I'm looking forward to it in 1, 2, 3 years. But the joy will be short-lived IMO!