|Alright. I read all the posts and feel good already for the participation level in discussions. I thank you all for good words and kind wishes. Let's get to work. First of all - melosjumper7. I already feel that you have established yourself as one of the best sports handicappers in this trade by your consistent methodology. There will be ups and downs - but you're absolutely are and will keep killing it. If I was the kind of person who likes to brag - I'd say that I created a "monster". But I know that no one created you melosjumper7 and you're a great handicapper and an intelligent person on your own. So, I am the one who have to thank you for being a part of this thread.
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:08:19 PM
I do not want to get into complimenting other great people in here for the reason that I would most probably leave someone out. You all are doing great job so far and if you'll keep remembering that the money management and self control with the patience are the keys to successful handicapping - you'll do just fine.
I mentioned melosjumper7 because of the outstanding feel for a single underdog ML winners nad great ATS and Totals record so far!
Now to the games:
Yes, although I took the Warriors tonight - It very well play out different scenario tonight than we all expect. I'm saying it for a reason. The books know well that most of the public is on the Warriors expecting the let down after a loss as we have anticipated. At the same time the line has been changing indicating either the heavy money on the Clippers or a simple RLM on part of the books and I will be on that game at the halftime too looking if there will be a need to secure that bet. I am saying this because the books know that in few days the game in a Staples Center will attract many bets and if the Clippers will win tonight and the Warriors at the Staples Center - it will happen both times with minority taking the wins. That way the teams will still split the games but the books will have an upper hand. So, since I expect a split in those two games between the Warriors and the Clips - loser tonight will be my favorite bet on the next game.
Now to the games one by one:
Cavs hosting the Kings - well, those teams have played many overs lately. Their averages are below the opening line of 198 - more so below 199.5 right now. Four out of every five bets are on Under and the line is still at 199.5 without moving down as it is supposed to do in that scenario. At this stage I would stay away from that game but would keep a watchful eye to see if the line stays at the same level. And if it does - I might consider betting Over.
Side wise - the lines say the Kings cover but with those teams and Varejao's status unknown - I would not risk my money here.
Pacers hosting Wizards - Over can be considered here but -11 is a bit high for me knowing that the Pacers can toy with the Wizards till the fourth quarter and then pull the win. If. No lean here as well. So far.
Raptors - Portland. Well, Portland pulled the shocker in MSG and I think the Partors are due here. Leaning Raptors. No totals play for me.
Orlando - Chicago. I'm making a play on Chicago here as the Magic got the cover against the Heat and Chicago paid the dues to Bobcats paying for a win in MSG.
CHICAGO Bulls -3.5 (-110) 110$
No totals play for me here.
Miami - Dallas. I don't touch ATS. I do lean Miami here as they are well due. But not a play yet. Another strong lean is Over here. Dallas tired won't be able to hold Miami's running game and Rio is due to score some points extra for Miami.
Boston - Memphis. No Rondo and the line is still at Boston +3? Coming down from +4? The whole world is on Over and the line is as it was released - 179? Leaning Under. Nothing on sides as the line movement down can indicate a first half Boston play. Early for me.
Those are the first 6 games and soon I will post the rest of the 6 games left.