his model doesnt consider injuries....
One of the first things I thought of when I saw si1ly's predictive model was, I wonder if it could be used the same way that Beaverfan did in college basketball this year. He would look at Kenpom's predictive model and everywhere that Vegas had a big difference from Kenpom, he would side with Vegas. He had a real nice run early and mid season but, as Kenpom's numbers got sharper, the results regressed. Still, overall a pretty good system Beaverfan had. Last night, in most of the games, si1ly was fairly close to Vegas' numbers except in two games, Lakers and Raptors. If you would have sided with Vegas in both games, you would have won. Obviously, this is a very small sample but, it would be something to monitor and see if we have something here. Example, in the Lakers game: I am sure that Vegas uses compicated statistical formulas to help set lines and they should have also known that the Lakers statistically were better than the Celtics yet they set the line much lower than the stats indicated. They were hoping that the bettors would like the Lakers with the shorter line at home. Lakers win but don't cover.
I think this is something we should keep an eye on to see if we can exploit this. Thanks to si1ly for coming up with this great predictive model!!!
One of the first things I thought of when I saw si1ly's predictive model was, I wonder if it could be used the same way that Beaverfan did in college basketball this year. He would look at Kenpom's predictive model and everywhere that Vegas had a big difference from Kenpom, he would side with Vegas. He had a real nice run early and mid season but, as Kenpom's numbers got sharper, the results regressed. Still, overall a pretty good system Beaverfan had. Last night, in most of the games, si1ly was fairly close to Vegas' numbers except in two games, Lakers and Raptors. If you would have sided with Vegas in both games, you would have won. Obviously, this is a very small sample but, it would be something to monitor and see if we have something here. Example, in the Lakers game: I am sure that Vegas uses compicated statistical formulas to help set lines and they should have also known that the Lakers statistically were better than the Celtics yet they set the line much lower than the stats indicated. They were hoping that the bettors would like the Lakers with the shorter line at home. Lakers win but don't cover.
I think this is something we should keep an eye on to see if we can exploit this. Thanks to si1ly for coming up with this great predictive model!!!
Si1ly:
Forgive me Sir if this is a stupid question. After reading your last post wouldn't your above >3.5 record be 41-30? Also that 1-3 point threshold is an insane 121-67 if I am understanding your logic correctly.
Si1ly:
Forgive me Sir if this is a stupid question. After reading your last post wouldn't your above >3.5 record be 41-30? Also that 1-3 point threshold is an insane 121-67 if I am understanding your logic correctly.
Gotcha Si1ly, thank your for the further explanation and best of luck going forward. The sharing of your system, insight and wisdom is very much appreciated!
Gotcha Si1ly, thank your for the further explanation and best of luck going forward. The sharing of your system, insight and wisdom is very much appreciated!
MIA | 3 | ORL -0.7 | MIA -4.5 | ORL +5.2 |
ORL | 3.7 | |||
TOR | -3.9 | CLE -3.7 | CLE -4 | TOR +0.3 |
CLE | -0.2 | |||
POR | -3.4 | IND -5.9 | IND -3.5 | CLE +2.4 |
IND | 2.5 | |||
LAL | -1.5 | MEM -5 | MEM -1 | MEM +4 |
MEM | 3.5 | |||
HOU | -2.5 | OKC -8.2 | OKC -11 | HOU +3.8 |
OKC | 5.7 | |||
WAS | -6.3 | DAL -8.1 | DAL -12.5 | WAS +4.4 |
DAL | 1.8 | |||
ATL | -0.5 | DEN -3.8 | DEN -5 | ATL +1.2 |
DEN | 3.3 | |||
GSW | -2.9 | SAC -2.7 | SAC -2.5 | SAC +0.2 |
SAC | -0.2 |
MIA | 3 | ORL -0.7 | MIA -4.5 | ORL +5.2 |
ORL | 3.7 | |||
TOR | -3.9 | CLE -3.7 | CLE -4 | TOR +0.3 |
CLE | -0.2 | |||
POR | -3.4 | IND -5.9 | IND -3.5 | CLE +2.4 |
IND | 2.5 | |||
LAL | -1.5 | MEM -5 | MEM -1 | MEM +4 |
MEM | 3.5 | |||
HOU | -2.5 | OKC -8.2 | OKC -11 | HOU +3.8 |
OKC | 5.7 | |||
WAS | -6.3 | DAL -8.1 | DAL -12.5 | WAS +4.4 |
DAL | 1.8 | |||
ATL | -0.5 | DEN -3.8 | DEN -5 | ATL +1.2 |
DEN | 3.3 | |||
GSW | -2.9 | SAC -2.7 | SAC -2.5 | SAC +0.2 |
SAC | -0.2 |