Get free points 2nd half- Team A is at home giving team B 10 points. Team A is up 10 at the half. The 2nd half line will be -2.5. Here you have the dog getting an additional 2.5 points off the game line. The dog will cover the 2nd half in this spot well over 70% of the time. Why? The book knows most of you will see the first half and see Team A win the first half and look great and perception will be that they will win the 2nd half as well. This is the greatest sports betting angle you will find on a consistant day to day basis. This theory works well in all halftime sports.
-120 or -115- I never bet these on principle alone. This is a sucker bet the book puts out on halftime lines. You will often notice the 2nd half line opens at this number. They know most will be on the -120 so they penalize you and feel the better play is the +100. Now why do you think they put the -120 out there? OK well if it opens at -110 and moves to -120 they feel the squares are on the -120 and majority of bets. If it opens at -120 and moves to -110 than throw this out the window and the other side will win most of the time. Loser gamblers think they have some sort of mystical edge when they see -120 or -115. This lets the square bettor know who to bet. I gaurantee the -1 is out there to let the squares know who to bet on the game line. The -1 in any sport will lose a little over 60% of the time but that's not for this discussion.
Star player out - I love when the best player is out of the game for a team. That team will cover around 80% of the time. It's like the other players play out of their skin for some reason. Everyone picks up their game and seems to play on another level. You will often see +12 dogs win the game outright as you have seen already a couple times this year. I always and recommend taking the ML as well as this will hit over 50% of the time and with the comeback make a helfty profit. This angle only works for 2 games max though, reality sets in around game 3 without the star player so be careful.
3 in 4 or 4 in 5- I love taking bad teams getting points at home when they face a far superior team who has been playing 3 games in 4 nights or 4 games in 5 nights. Great example was the Clippers the other night vs the Lakers. Had first half, 2nd half, 2nd half money line, game ML and +5.5. Here you had the perfect spot for the Clippers and to make it even nicer is was a national TV game and the last game of the night. One last bet for the losers to bet. I hate taking favs on big ESPN or national type games. Your always giving away a free point on the fav just because of the extra TV exposure. The most important factor to me in the NBA is the schedule or what I mean is travel. Where have they been, where are they playing and who is their next game is much more important than how many games in a row a team has covered or the other bullshit you guys think is giving you an edge in studying.
When lines go down- I don't know how some of you can bet games 12 hours before tip off. I understand finding the best line and trying to predict the action of the line but sorry you guys aren't smart enough to do so and are not a sharp. Now what I like to do is wait five minutes before tip off and hit refresh and see if any lines go down, when they move down right before the game I like to take the dog. This trend will hit well over 60%. The real sharps who do know something took the dog here and steamed it down and the smart money is on them. Better to lose a half or full point and wait than to be on the wrong side.
Studying the matchup is bullshit- This will offend most of you. I used to study the matchup, try to find an edge in the matchups blah blah blah. It's all bullshit guys and basically meaningless. Here's what I do to find the best way to cap.
1. Find Public perception and where is it at, know where most will be putting their money on. Just reading the covers forum is the best place for this. I have often seen Sports Insights say 75% is on team A and than read the forums and see 75% is on team B. Covers is the best place to see where the market is at and I love SI and have been using them for years as simply a tool to help find public perception. Try and fade the covers forum.
2. Follow the late steam move right before the game.
3. Think outside the box. There is risk in any bet and the tougher and riskier it seems to be the better. Try and take the path less traveled.
4.Schedule
5.Patience- I often will just calmly wait to see the halftime lines and take it from there. I still bet game lines but not that often maybe 1 or 2 a day tops or if I do very small. 2nd half is a much more solid and better bet to make.
If you look at how I cap games it has nothing to do with matchups and handicapping. Fading and knowing how to fade is the most important thing to me. I promise this thread will get very few views. Two weeks from now if 3 people remember this thread and the information given, it will be a lot. It's a shame you guys aren't gonna take this advice to heart. I urge the people who are serious about this to track the 2nd half lines yourself and these spots in general. I'd love to hear feedback.