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Sunday angles and stats

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Sunday angles and stats
McAlpine PM McAlpine
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 2400
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Posted: 12/14/2008 10:58:43 AM
Just one play that interests me, and a lot of other Forum bettors are on it: NOH -2  at TOR.

Looking at the last 10 games, TOR's PF - PA is 99 - 108. NO's same stat is 100 - 93.

NO's PF - PA is 98 - 94 away from home. TOR is 99 - 100 at home.

NO -2 looks like a rare mistake on the part of the oddsmakers.

But most of all I find that the closer I get to the NBA the easier it is to recognize a bad line. All I have to do is look at the day's card and the games just jump out at me.

This isn't bullshit or voodoo. A guy named Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about how your mind does "rapid cognition" when you are immersed in a subject, whether it's sports betting, couples counseling or antique art. Your mind acts like a database of information - stats you have learned; games you have watched; team information you have internalized. With that frame of reference inside your head, you process picks on the board with your instincts... and that is your best handicapping tool.

An experienced couples counselor or art dealer can tell in less than 15 minutes whether a couple will stay married or whether a piece of antique art is a fake.

It's called "rapid cognition" or "thin slicing" and you can read more about it in Gladwell's book, Blink. I highly recommend it!

Of course, you have to put in the hours. I record the box scores of each day's NBA games every evening, and watch at least one NBA game every day. If you don't fill your head with information, you cannot expect your subconscious to do its silent computing and provide you with the emotional jolt you get when you see a line that is just... wrong.

Watch more games and record the game results every night. It will make you more money than tailing the guys who post every day and get, like, 20,000 views and 150 posts.
Versety1075 PM Versety1075
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 489
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Posted: 12/14/2008 10:59:33 AM
glenndef62 PM glenndef62
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 7507
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Posted: 12/14/2008 11:03:22 AM
Rapid Cognition............Mine aint to rapid these days, Alpine (LOL), but excellent write-up. GL with your bets!!!
Mad_Skillz123 PM Mad_Skillz123
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 14052
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Posted: 12/14/2008 11:08:00 AM
i belive in this...its a good way....we all know what we lean to when we see the lines out...thats just 1 part of it.
nbafan88 PM nbafan88
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 26899
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Posted: 12/14/2008 11:16:29 AM

you're on the UNDER right?
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