Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL week 3

Betting Big Road Favorites

One of the most profitable wagers for NFL bettors over the last 10 years has been betting against big road favorites who have been favored by more than 7 points. Searching out profitable underdog bets throughout the NFL season is the difference between a bettor who barely bets on the right side 50% of the time, and a much richer bettor who's bang-on 60-plus % of the time.

Since 1997 there have been 107 games on the NFL schedule in which the oddsmakers have set the road team as a favorite by 7 or more points. The overall ATS record of the road favorites is a horrific 38-63-3. That's a bankroll-draining winning percentage of only 37%. If you had been going against the favorite in all of these game for the past 10 years, you would have been paid off nearly 63% of the time.

I highlighted this last week as Cincinnati and Indianapolis patted these stats ....( not covering and in Cinci's case losing outright )

Indianapolis is reaching this territory again as they open as 5 point favorites on the road to Houston ...and we see the line reaching the dangerous crossline of 7 ... I suspect the carnage taken by all favorites on week 2 might keep this line bellow the threshold , but keep an eye on it .

Also here is a trend for the Texans >>  Texans are 9-2 ATS last 11 Home games vs a team w/ a winning record .

**********************************************************************

A look at spreads over 16 points ( as is the case between Buffalo @ New England  >>>>

according to winningpicks database  on spreads of over 16 from

1996-2007 the Favorite ( and has always been @ home ) is only

7-11 ATS ( 38.9 % ) in these contests . That being said , the last such spread involved the Chicago bears hosting the SF 49ers in 2006 ...a game in which the Bears demolished  the 49ers by a score of 41-10 . The spread was Bears - 16.5

Interestingly , the Over went a healthy 13-5 ( 72.2 % ) in these games .

This excellent is in stark contrast with Buffalo's trend of 8-0 to the under in the last 8 meetings with New England .

***************************************************************************

Team records:
San Francisco: 2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS
Pittsburgh: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 4-6

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Does SF run out of luck and doesn't cover?  This one favors Pitt to cover.