The Rams’ record is better than what it should be if you are a believer in point differential. Their winning percentage is .846, but their Pythagorean expected winning percentage is below .700.
Historically, in the final three weeks of the season, it’s been a strong bet to fade teams whose Pythagorean winning percentage is at least 12.5% worse than their actual winning percentage.
Those teams have covered less than 40% of the time in these spots, but when they’re favorites of at least a touchdown, they’ve covered less than 30% of the time
The Rams’ record is better than what it should be if you are a believer in point differential. Their winning percentage is .846, but their Pythagorean expected winning percentage is below .700.
Historically, in the final three weeks of the season, it’s been a strong bet to fade teams whose Pythagorean winning percentage is at least 12.5% worse than their actual winning percentage.
Those teams have covered less than 40% of the time in these spots, but when they’re favorites of at least a touchdown, they’ve covered less than 30% of the time
Since 2003, 10 teams have played a game in December or later that are averaging at least 30 points per game and have scored just 14 or fewer points in their previous game.
Those teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their next game, covering by 5.2 points while averaging 31.7 points
Since 2003, 10 teams have played a game in December or later that are averaging at least 30 points per game and have scored just 14 or fewer points in their previous game.
Those teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their next game, covering by 5.2 points while averaging 31.7 points
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