Went 7-4 last week, made a couple mistakes not buying
down to -3 on the Pats and pushed on the Vikings game spread because I
played them too early at -10 instead of getting the -9.5 on game day
morning. Hopefully won't have those kind of things happen this week.
Any input or discussion about my plays is always welcome. GOOD LUCK!
Wanted to get these two in now and am looking at several dogs for
this week, but will wait on those lines and some injury reports as the week goes.
L.A. Chargers -3 -130 1H and -6 -125 Game (2 bets): Two
teams heading in opposite directions with the Chargers likely excited
for this trip to London while the Titans have to be licking their
wounds. Chargers with a huge edge on offense here at every position and
they're deep. Backfield is now a multifaceted attack with Gordon and
Ekeler plus they also do creative things to get their receivers involved
in the run game. WR's are pretty solid at stretching the field and RB's
also catch it very well out of the backfield. Completely different
story when looking at Titans offense. Mariota just isn't progressing,
Henry is in a major funk running the ball, and they don't play with any
pace. Titans D is good and is the overall better defensive unit in this
game, but they're on the field way too much. That unit has to be
extremely frustrated with their offense. Just can't see the Titans
keeping up here on the scoreboard.
Kansas City -3 -125 1H and -5.5 Game (2 bets): Chiefs back
home after playing very competitive in New England. Sure, it was a tough
loss but this team is young, fast, and having too much fun playing
football where I don't think it'll get them down. Bengals are coming
back down to earth now after getting some very fortunate wins early in
the season in games where they were significantly outgained. Dalton has
actually been pretty good so far and WR's are still a solid unit
overall, but Mixon has fallen off some running the ball and losing
Eifert at TE was huge for them. Bengals D has been decent, but not great
and as a team they've struggled playing on grass. Chiefs D should be
getting back at least a couple guys here which will help.
Went 7-4 last week, made a couple mistakes not buying
down to -3 on the Pats and pushed on the Vikings game spread because I
played them too early at -10 instead of getting the -9.5 on game day
morning. Hopefully won't have those kind of things happen this week.
Any input or discussion about my plays is always welcome. GOOD LUCK!
Wanted to get these two in now and am looking at several dogs for
this week, but will wait on those lines and some injury reports as the week goes.
L.A. Chargers -3 -130 1H and -6 -125 Game (2 bets): Two
teams heading in opposite directions with the Chargers likely excited
for this trip to London while the Titans have to be licking their
wounds. Chargers with a huge edge on offense here at every position and
they're deep. Backfield is now a multifaceted attack with Gordon and
Ekeler plus they also do creative things to get their receivers involved
in the run game. WR's are pretty solid at stretching the field and RB's
also catch it very well out of the backfield. Completely different
story when looking at Titans offense. Mariota just isn't progressing,
Henry is in a major funk running the ball, and they don't play with any
pace. Titans D is good and is the overall better defensive unit in this
game, but they're on the field way too much. That unit has to be
extremely frustrated with their offense. Just can't see the Titans
keeping up here on the scoreboard.
Kansas City -3 -125 1H and -5.5 Game (2 bets): Chiefs back
home after playing very competitive in New England. Sure, it was a tough
loss but this team is young, fast, and having too much fun playing
football where I don't think it'll get them down. Bengals are coming
back down to earth now after getting some very fortunate wins early in
the season in games where they were significantly outgained. Dalton has
actually been pretty good so far and WR's are still a solid unit
overall, but Mixon has fallen off some running the ball and losing
Eifert at TE was huge for them. Bengals D has been decent, but not great
and as a team they've struggled playing on grass. Chiefs D should be
getting back at least a couple guys here which will help.
Houston +5.5: Going to fade the Jags again until they can
cover. Jags have the body language of a team who thinks
they're much better than they are and some egos are becoming louder in
the locker room. Fournette is showing as doubtful right now but that could change and he could be back here which would help some,
but they've only played one good offensive game this year when highly
motivated for revenge against the Pats. Jags continue to be decimated by
injuries at WR and TE which hasn't helped either. I'm not a big fan of
the Texans offense either due to its inability to convert on chances and
Watson's own struggles, but their defense is much improved and has been
keeping them in every game. Going to grab the points here in an
expected low scoring affair.
San Francisco +10.5 -125: 49ers are coming off the
heartbreaking loss on MNF to the Packers, but this team is still playing
hard. Rams are getting everyone's best shot each week and this is a lot
of points for them to cover even in this spot. 49ers are healthy again for the most part
on offense and their OL is pass protecting and run
blocking pretty well. CJ Beathard is a gamer but makes just enough bad
decisions for them to lose. They're still giving up their fair share of
points on defense, but have been a bit better recently in limiting the
damage. It appears the Rams will be without WR Kupp which would help
matters some for the 49ers, though the Rams still have a very formidable
offense without him. I think this is a game that can be a battle back
and forth and where
the backdoor will remain open. If the 49ers just run the ball more than normal here, which they should if they're smart, it will
shorten the game some and limit the pressure on Beathard to make big plays.
Houston +5.5: Going to fade the Jags again until they can
cover. Jags have the body language of a team who thinks
they're much better than they are and some egos are becoming louder in
the locker room. Fournette is showing as doubtful right now but that could change and he could be back here which would help some,
but they've only played one good offensive game this year when highly
motivated for revenge against the Pats. Jags continue to be decimated by
injuries at WR and TE which hasn't helped either. I'm not a big fan of
the Texans offense either due to its inability to convert on chances and
Watson's own struggles, but their defense is much improved and has been
keeping them in every game. Going to grab the points here in an
expected low scoring affair.
San Francisco +10.5 -125: 49ers are coming off the
heartbreaking loss on MNF to the Packers, but this team is still playing
hard. Rams are getting everyone's best shot each week and this is a lot
of points for them to cover even in this spot. 49ers are healthy again for the most part
on offense and their OL is pass protecting and run
blocking pretty well. CJ Beathard is a gamer but makes just enough bad
decisions for them to lose. They're still giving up their fair share of
points on defense, but have been a bit better recently in limiting the
damage. It appears the Rams will be without WR Kupp which would help
matters some for the 49ers, though the Rams still have a very formidable
offense without him. I think this is a game that can be a battle back
and forth and where
the backdoor will remain open. If the 49ers just run the ball more than normal here, which they should if they're smart, it will
shorten the game some and limit the pressure on Beathard to make big plays.
Philly -3 1H and -4 -118 Game (2 bets):
Eagles are just 3-3 but their 3 losses have come by a total of 11 points
amidst quite a few injuries. They're slowly getting more healthy now in several areas
and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game coming off their
convincing win at the Giants last Thursday. I feel the Eagles have
gotten the Super Bowl hangover out of their system now and Wentz is
looking more comfortable. I give Philly the noticeable defensive edge in
this one with their excellent DL and depth, and Cam is susceptible to
poor mechanics and decision making with the ball when under duress. Panthers
have been running the ball pretty well this season, but the Eagles are
giving up just under 80 ypg in that category. Eagles offense has not
been explosive thus far and they're still working to find a consistent
running game due to injuries, but I'm counting on their defense to get
enough stops and maybe set them up with a couple short fields for Wentz
to take advantage of.
Tampa Bay -3 -130: Tampa has played a really tough schedule
so far and have been very competitive in each game except at Chicago.
They just fired their DC and while their defense still has issues
especially against the pass, facing the Browns offense should provide some
relief to them compared to previous opponents. Browns have only played
well offensively in one game thus far and that was against a very bad Raiders team. Browns D has some solid guys especially on their DL, but
they've also struggled with consistency against the pass like the Bucs. I
see the difference here being with the Bucs on offense who get better production in more areas with the
better big play guys. Tampa is
coming off B2B road games and 3 straight losses after their hot start,
but have a good chance here to right the ship some and get back to .500.
This is a key game for them as their next two are on the road again.
Philly -3 1H and -4 -118 Game (2 bets):
Eagles are just 3-3 but their 3 losses have come by a total of 11 points
amidst quite a few injuries. They're slowly getting more healthy now in several areas
and will have had 10 days to prepare for this game coming off their
convincing win at the Giants last Thursday. I feel the Eagles have
gotten the Super Bowl hangover out of their system now and Wentz is
looking more comfortable. I give Philly the noticeable defensive edge in
this one with their excellent DL and depth, and Cam is susceptible to
poor mechanics and decision making with the ball when under duress. Panthers
have been running the ball pretty well this season, but the Eagles are
giving up just under 80 ypg in that category. Eagles offense has not
been explosive thus far and they're still working to find a consistent
running game due to injuries, but I'm counting on their defense to get
enough stops and maybe set them up with a couple short fields for Wentz
to take advantage of.
Tampa Bay -3 -130: Tampa has played a really tough schedule
so far and have been very competitive in each game except at Chicago.
They just fired their DC and while their defense still has issues
especially against the pass, facing the Browns offense should provide some
relief to them compared to previous opponents. Browns have only played
well offensively in one game thus far and that was against a very bad Raiders team. Browns D has some solid guys especially on their DL, but
they've also struggled with consistency against the pass like the Bucs. I
see the difference here being with the Bucs on offense who get better production in more areas with the
better big play guys. Tampa is
coming off B2B road games and 3 straight losses after their hot start,
but have a good chance here to right the ship some and get back to .500.
This is a key game for them as their next two are on the road again.
Minny/NY Jets Over 22.5 1H and Over 44.5 Game (2 bets):
Both of these offenses have really turned it up lately and I think this
number is way too low for this matchup. Cousins has really gotten in
sync with his solid cast of receivers and now they're running the ball
well too for balance. Same can be said of Darnold and the Jets surging
running game. I see each of these defenses as being a little overrated
and that's why I think this number is on the low side. Both team plays
with some pace and I really like both of these QB's throwing the ball
right now. These NFC vs. AFC matchups tend to go over due to a lack of
familiarity with one another, so that's another incentive to ride the
trend.
Detroit/Miami Over 23.5 1H and Over 47 Game (2 bets):
Two teams who can score and don't play much defense, a good recipe for
an Over. Plus, it's another NFC vs. AFC battle which tend to be high
scoring. No weather problems in Miami either, so the setting is perfect.
Lions also coming off a bye so they should be chomping at the bit to
play. Stafford has a great set of receivers and they prefer to throw it
around a lot, so we should see lots of plays in this game. Miami has a
very underrated WR core and Brock looked good last week so they should
score their share too. The bigger contributing factor here are these
teams defenses which are both prone to giving up the big play, so points
are always a possibility even if the pace is slower.
Minny/NY Jets Over 22.5 1H and Over 44.5 Game (2 bets):
Both of these offenses have really turned it up lately and I think this
number is way too low for this matchup. Cousins has really gotten in
sync with his solid cast of receivers and now they're running the ball
well too for balance. Same can be said of Darnold and the Jets surging
running game. I see each of these defenses as being a little overrated
and that's why I think this number is on the low side. Both team plays
with some pace and I really like both of these QB's throwing the ball
right now. These NFC vs. AFC matchups tend to go over due to a lack of
familiarity with one another, so that's another incentive to ride the
trend.
Detroit/Miami Over 23.5 1H and Over 47 Game (2 bets):
Two teams who can score and don't play much defense, a good recipe for
an Over. Plus, it's another NFC vs. AFC battle which tend to be high
scoring. No weather problems in Miami either, so the setting is perfect.
Lions also coming off a bye so they should be chomping at the bit to
play. Stafford has a great set of receivers and they prefer to throw it
around a lot, so we should see lots of plays in this game. Miami has a
very underrated WR core and Brock looked good last week so they should
score their share too. The bigger contributing factor here are these
teams defenses which are both prone to giving up the big play, so points
are always a possibility even if the pace is slower.
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