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Do I take the lowest juice or best line? For how long?

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Do I take the lowest juice or best line? For how long?
handicap6272 PM handicap6272
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Posted: 9/14/2018 12:53:16 PM

Is it better to take an extra half point in the line, or a 5% lower juice? (i.e. Do you take GB +3.5 at -110, or GB + 3 at  -105?) Does it depend on whether or not the half point is getting you past a key number or not?  What if it were GB +1 at -110 vs. GB + 1/2 at -105? If you say to take the extra half point and pay more juice, then how many points edge with bookie A vs. bookie B would you have to get before it's worth paying bookie A a higher juice, and how much higher juice would you be willing to pay for a half point, full point, 1.5 points, whatever? I've heard that it's never worth it to 'buy points' in your favor, even if it gets you past a key number. Yet people always say that reduced juice over the long run can make a big difference in your bankroll. This is assuming that the lines are the same when you do it. Then they say to shop lines to save money over the long run.  No one ever talks about what to do if the lines aren't the same and you have to decide between price vs. juice. If that's not enough, beyond just a half point difference, one must then must decide if more than a half point difference makes a higher juice worth it if the point(s) is/are in your favor. Where do you draw the lines in price vs. juice comparisons when both are different between bookies A and B? 

DoctorSuccess PM DoctorSuccess
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Posted: 9/14/2018 1:08:58 PM
Pure math aside, it depends on the game and the line. If I'm dealing with what I perceive is going to be a low scoring game and I like the dog, I'll take the +3.5 at -110 vs. +3 at -105. If it's a 1-point line, I'll take PK at -105. Suuma pointed out months ago that if you like a dog of 2 or less points, it pays more to take the money line. Your rate of return is higher.
succaneers PM succaneers
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Posted: 9/15/2018 5:12:22 PM

well -when in doubt - I play both  - so If I were betting $100 on GB in your example - I might would play GB -3 at one site for $50 and then GB-3.5 at the other site.

As for "the better juice" if you can improve your win loss rate by 1-2 % over the course of the season it will matter more than "that one time" you won $95 vice $90.

I am always willing to pay -110 or minus -115 to get off a key number - if I think it's close enough It might impact my chance to win. (and it often is)

JumpinJeremy55 PM JumpinJeremy55
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Posted: 9/15/2018 5:29:31 PM
juice kills!!
AvidGuru PM AvidGuru
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Posted: 9/15/2018 5:45:34 PM
Great topic and very well said too 

I think you will find varying theories and philosophies regarding this question.

In my humble opinion, having access to at least 3 different Books will allow you to "go shopping" throughout the day.

Not only will books current odds differ slightly, one Book may be "square" (slightly edging toward Favorites and Overs) while another is "sharp" (slightly favoring Underdogs and Unders)

Finally, I do believe key numbers are always important to consider...it's nice to have insurance. 

I like your idea about splitting it 50/50 but I have no idea if that is recommended.

Bottom line is this: if you are actively looking for ways to increase your edge, even in a small way, then you are on the right path.
loserforeverz PM loserforeverz
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Posted: 9/15/2018 6:34:34 PM
no way are bets that are +3 -105 are just -110 for 3.5.. I can make up stuff too...
AvidGuru PM AvidGuru
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Posted: 9/15/2018 6:53:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by loserforeverz:

no way are bets that are +3 -105 are just -110 for 3.5.. I can make up stuff too...

THAT was your takeaway from this conversation!?

an_shake

JerryWrasse PM JerryWrasse
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Posted: 9/15/2018 8:22:20 PM

Reduced vig in general is going to be the better option. The one exception would be off of 3 and 7, at least for football. I will buy off of 3 if the overall cost is $.15 or less. See below chart for fair price of buying on/off a number. 

 

JerryWrasse PM JerryWrasse
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Posted: 9/15/2018 8:23:02 PM
JerryWrasse PM JerryWrasse
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Posted: 9/15/2018 8:24:06 PM

Buying a Half Point Off the Spread

SPREAD FAIR PRICE

0 0.4

1 4.4

2 4.4

3 21.4

4 6.7

5 3.7

6 7.4

7 14

8 4.6

9 2.2

10 10.6

11 5.2

12 3.2

13 5.4

14 9.9

15 2.9

16 4.5

17 7.9

18 5.6

19 4.3

20 3.5

21 9.8

 

undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 9/15/2018 8:31:34 PM
In the long run, always take the better juice.

At some point in your life(if you do it long enough) you will come to see that the spread almost never f*ckin matters.

You'll pull your hair out all week long trying to figure out "value" "line movement" and what the real line should be etc...

Then at the end of the day you'll look at the scoreboard and say, "Damn, I just needed to pick the winner"
 
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 9/15/2018 8:34:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by undermysac:

In the long run, always take the better juice.

At some point in your life(if you do it long enough) you will come to see that the spread almost never f*ckin matters.

You'll pull your hair out all week long trying to figure out "value" "line movement" and what the real line should be etc...

Then at the end of the day you'll look at the scoreboard and say, "Damn, I just needed to pick the winner"
 

This is how I feel about the NFL in particular.

DrJohn3719 PM DrJohn3719
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Posted: 9/16/2018 12:54:24 AM
There isn't much debating to be done here. The correct answer can be elucidated with math and math alone.

In simplest terms, you must be able to quantify the edge gained from the additional half point. You then plug the various components into the Kelly Criterion for both the scenario where you purchase the point and the one where you do not. After which, it is a simple comparison exercise.

That being said, as most people are unable to quantify edge/risk, you will not generally be able to determine when it is appropriate to purchase the half point. As such, a dominant stratagem in this scenario is probably to take the lower vig 100% of the time.
EuroPro PM EuroPro
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Posted: 9/16/2018 1:22:25 AM
i never see the point of taking juicy lines. juice only makes u go swimming with the fishies
Forum: NFL Betting
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