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Uncle Ernies 2018 NFL Week 2 Dynamo Ratings

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Uncle Ernies 2018 NFL Week 2 Dynamo Ratings
MagicMan64 PM MagicMan64
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Posted: 9/11/2018 3:00:19 PM

This is the debut of THE DYNAMO RANKINGS, a metric of overall points and efficiency combination. My own offensive efficiency is at the core of the formula, which is Dynamo = inertia + (points for)/(7-inertia)

I know Dynamo rankings mean little at this point, but I am posting them now for future reference and to get practice in calculating and posting them. Now to cut down on data spikes, I created 8 groups of 4 teams each. Each group gets a letter grade and a letter grade is given "credits" like B+ has 7 credits. I use the term credits to avoid getting mixed up with points. And for other technical handicappers out there , rank is more important than value. For example, what does it mean when a running back gets 78 yards ? I would rather know the rank of 78 yards for running backs.

Grade "A" Credits 8

Bucs, Jets, Ravens, Redskins

 

Grade "B+" Credits 7

Bengals, Saints, Chiefs, Dolphins

 

Grade "B-" Credits 6

Rams, Broncos, Pats, Panthers

 

Grade "C+" Credits 5

Chargers, Viks, Bears, Colts

 

Grade "C-" Credits 4

Steelers, Texans, Packers, Jags

 

Grade "D+" Credits 3

Titans, Eagles, Browns, Seahawks

 

Grade "D-" Credits 2

Raiders, Niners, Giants, Cowboys

 

Grade "F" Credits 1

Lions, Falcons, Cards, Bills

 

Congratulations Buffalo Billsbigsmile

One way to use these rankings is fade or avoid teams with "D" and "F" grades. Or perhaps you want to adjust your bet size if a team has a "C-" grade.

 

Oh and Seahawks you are on the FADE Watch ... For a supposed good team, Seattle's inertia numbers are poor. Their inertia numbers were not good last season either. At the moment, it is just a yellow alert and something to keep your betting eye on.

MagicMan64 PM MagicMan64
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Posted: 9/12/2018 1:42:15 PM

One of my major handicapping steps is to filter out games where the line is 7 or more. So here are the filtered lines which helps me focus on the games I might want to play. Also this exercise clears my head. There are so many games where I have no idea on which team to pick ats. Then after a bit a few games gel. I am also practicing making picks for Westgate Contest, and I may have to do them earlier than expected. Originally I was going to skip the Ravens Bengals, but I may need 5 plays.

These are just are my intial plays that i might consider.

Ravens +1 Bengals

Chiefs -4 Steelers

Texans +1 Titans

Vikings -1 Packers

Eagles +3 Bucs

Panthers -6 Falcons

Colts -6 Redskins

Dolphins -3 Jets

Lions -6 Niners

Pats +1.5 jags

Raiders -5.5 Broncos

Giants -3 Cowboys

Seahawks -3.5 Bears

MagicMan64 PM MagicMan64
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Posted: 9/14/2018 5:34:36 AM

Well I am glad I did not make an official pick in the Ravens Bengals game. My lean was on the wrong side. I still do not trust the Bengals that much, but may change my mind after a few more games. Also, the significance of the home team on TNF did play out. Another member posted the home team on TNF covers about 68% of the time. This was also another game where the line did not affect the cover. For example, the line could have been Ravens (-4). Another reminder that when you handicap, start your lean with who you think will win the game.

As for the up and down of the Ravens, which I have mention in other posts, in their first game they had an inertia of 2.93. In their second game they had an inertia of 1.26. This is like having an offensive efficiency of B+ to an A in one game and in the next it is an D- or F.

Now the overaction is going to be should the Ravens replace Flaco with Lamar Jackson. an_brick

tombstoned PM tombstoned
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Posted: 9/14/2018 12:34:46 PM
Good luck with this moving forward. I assume your data reliability will improve as the weeks progress. For instance, the rank of 78 yards rushing after 1 week is not as indicative as it will be after several weeks. 


MagicMan64 PM MagicMan64
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Posted: 9/14/2018 1:23:11 PM

Thanks for the reply tombstoned. The way I am doing credits take care of the problem when a team has a game that is "the greatest team" ever. For example the Bucs or Jets in week 1 probably lead the league or at way at the top in several offensive categories. Then if you take that week 1 game into an average, you will have major skewed results. As a correlation test, I checked the win and cover rate of week 1 for dynamo and modern defensive passer rating for each grade I have. The top 3 ( A, B+, B-) in both of those categories did well. The lower 3 grades (D+, D-, F ) did poorly.

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