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*** NFL Divisional Round - Sunday ***

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Divisional Round - Sunday ***
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 1/10/2018 10:39:51 AM
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Most people on the Steelers this weekend will tell you how the Jags have a great defense but Blake Bortles and the offense sucks. The Jags offense last weekend looked abysmal, but there’s a reason for it. Blake has never played football this time of year as he’s never made the playoffs. He’s only been accustomed to playing in the sunny Florida weather. He was absolutely terrible in Jacksonville on Sunday, as only 1 WR on the team had a catch. However, Blake was playing his first game ever in high winds, as Jacksonville posted 20mph winds during that game. Blake has had 0 experience playing in such games, so it’s easy to see why he was missing wide open receivers all game long. The Jags defense however, was lights out. They recorded two sacks against a very mobile QB, and is surely to get more against Big Ben the statue. Jags defense will continue to dominate, while the offense will play much better this weekend, in Pittsburgh which is expecting just 6 mph winds. Let’s not forget that the Jags scored 30 points in 4 of the final 5 games of the regular season. 

As for the Steelers, they are a team that finished the season red hot, winning 10 of their final 11 games. However, many starters haven't played a single snap for 3 weeks. Tomlin decided to rest his starters in week 17, despite having a bye week coming up. When you are red hot to finish a season, the last thing you want is 3 weeks off. Not to mention Antonio Brown has been out for even further as well. Has Tomlin been able to keep the offense in rhythm during the time off? I highly doubt it. Tomlin made a mistake resting starters in week 17, and now a Steelers offense out of rhythm will be going up against the best defense in the AFC.

On further note, Mike Tomlin wasn’t the only one on the Steelers making a mistake prior to this game. Big Ben when asked who he’d rather face in the opening round of the playoffs openly said “the Jaguars”. Never give an opponent bulletin board material prior to a game. The Jaguars in response to Ben’s comments: “be careful what you wish for”. The Jags will bring it here, and Pittsburgh is absolutely on upset alert.
  • Jaguars +7.5 ($5,000) 
  • Vikings -3.5 ($4,000)
  • Saints Under 20.5 ($1,000)
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 1/10/2018 10:40:00 AM
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

80% of bettors betting on this game have no idea about all the injuries the Saints have on defense. I addressed it when taking the Panthers last week, but people still seem to be too in love with the Saints offense to ignore it. One of the reasons I took Carolina last week is because I expected Ron Rivera to make the necessary adjustments against an extremely depleted saints defense. Panthers scored 26 points (and on the road), but if you watched that game, they were very capable of scoring 35, and that’s without the help of any real receivers helping Newton. Panthers missed out on so many opportunities, and should have won that game. Mike Zimmer however, is the most underrated coach in the NFL, and I expect the Vikings to capitalize on those same opportunities. 

On defense, the Panthers completely shut down New Orleans run game, but didn’t have the cornerbacks to stop the passing attack. Minnesota has a guy named Xavier Rhodes who completely shutout Julio Jones a few weeks ago, as well as one of the best safeties and middle linebackers in the game. Although this game will be played in a dome where the Saints play exceptionally well, I love the matchup for Minnesota here and I fully expect them to be traveling to Philadelphia next weekend for the NFC championship. 

Case Keenum is not proven yet, but he has a very favorable matchup going against this injured defense. Making matters worse for New Orleans, their starting guard broke his leg last game and will be out this week.

The Vikings also run an offense with one of the slowest paces in the NFL. A slow pace at home against a depleted defense means very long drives and ball control. The Saints will have trouble scoring in this game. They are playing against the best defense in the NFC who can play man to man coverage with any team in the NFL, and will easily lose the time of possession battle. I’d be surprised if this was less than a double digit win for Minnesota.
justliketoplay PM justliketoplay
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Posted: 1/10/2018 11:12:41 AM
Nice write up league Agree with everything here except Minnesota traveling to Philadelphia next week as I think it's Atlanta that the Vikings will be facing off with next week and NOT philly but hey that's just me.
MNFLoser PM MNFLoser
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Posted: 1/10/2018 11:29:57 AM

I like your picks.  I will add this on the Minne game.  Saints were terrible in road domes.  Communication is key to Brees.  He failed to score 20 this year in either of his two road dome games and is 1-4 career in road playoff games.  Vikings allowing 12 ppg at home and most are late garbage versus points in the first three quarters of games when they matter.

zikmund1 PM zikmund1
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Posted: 1/10/2018 11:35:42 AM

Thanks for the write up! Don’t know if I should wait if the line moves a bit, I could have it at +7 and -4? 

Achilles1629 PM Achilles1629
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Posted: 1/10/2018 11:37:08 AM
So the Steelers made the same mistake two years in a row now? Or is this more media drama? Supplying bulletin board material to their opponent in the playoffs? Last year it was AB and Tomlin on the video and now it's Ben and Tomlin this year? I wonder what's bigger motivation? Getting dominated at home by the Jags and throwing 5 picks or hearing through the media that that team wants to play you rather than any other team? I don't know: I'm a coach and I played high school sports. If I got beat down by a team earlier in the year on my home field, you darn right I'd tell everyone I'd want to play that same team to get my revenge. I'd want them to hear it too. Mad respect for ya LC but Steelers will be ready this weekend. You may win your bet but I fully expect them to be playing in a week and a half in the AFC championship game. 
sizzler PM sizzler
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:21:25 PM
Vikings payback schedule:

1. New Orleans for the 2009 bulshit calls and dirty play in the NFC Championship game.

2. The 1998 season where Denny Green failed to put the pedal down and the "so called Dirty Birds' pulled off the win. Then went on to the be embarrassed in the Super Bowl 34-19 by Elway. They weren't the best team to represent.

3. Super Bowl IX Pitt 16 - Vikings 6. Been wanting that back for a long time. Time for the Trifecta!!

-Sizz   
bpcuno PM bpcuno
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:26:16 PM
Can't wait to see Keenum choke like Goff did.  No playoff experience vs veteran QB.  No team has ever hosted a Superbowl in their home stadium and that won't change this year either. 
sizzler PM sizzler
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:36:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sizzler:

Vikings payback schedule:

1. New Orleans for the 2009 bullshit calls and dirty play in the NFC Championship game.

2. The 1998 season where Denny Green failed to put the pedal down and the "so called Dirty Birds' pulled off the win. Then went on to the be embarrassed in the Super Bowl 34-19 by Elway. They weren't the best team to represent.

3. Super Bowl IX Pitt 16 - Vikings 6. Been wanting that back for a long time. Time for the Trifecta!!

-Sizz   
sizzler PM sizzler
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:38:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bpcuno:

Can't wait to see Keenum choke like Goff did.  No playoff experience vs veteran QB.  No team has ever hosted a Superbowl in their home stadium and that won't change this year either. 

Don't bet on it....... They are very hungry and very strong.

NSX PM NSX
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:41:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bpcuno:

Can't wait to see Keenum choke like Goff did.  No playoff experience vs veteran QB.  No team has ever hosted a Superbowl in their home stadium and that won't change this year either. 

I've been hearing this all week. NO is going to learn a valuable lesson: defense wins championships.
sizzler PM sizzler
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Posted: 1/10/2018 12:43:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NSX:


I've been hearing this all week. NO is going to learn a valuable lesson: defense wins championships.

bpcuno PM bpcuno
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Posted: 1/10/2018 1:00:12 PM
Yeah, you're right.  Saints have no defense at all.
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Posted: 1/10/2018 1:04:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by zikmund1:

Thanks for the write up! Don’t know if I should wait if the line moves a bit, I could have it at +7 and -4? 


+7.5 is still available on 5dimes and bovada, act now on -4.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 1/10/2018 1:05:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

So the Steelers made the same mistake two years in a row now? Or is this more media drama? Supplying bulletin board material to their opponent in the playoffs? Last year it was AB and Tomlin on the video and now it's Ben and Tomlin this year? I wonder what's bigger motivation? Getting dominated at home by the Jags and throwing 5 picks or hearing through the media that that team wants to play you rather than any other team? I don't know: I'm a coach and I played high school sports. If I got beat down by a team earlier in the year on my home field, you darn right I'd tell everyone I'd want to play that same team to get my revenge. I'd want them to hear it too. Mad respect for ya LC but Steelers will be ready this weekend. You may win your bet but I fully expect them to be playing in a week and a half in the AFC championship game. 

Time off gets a team out of rhythm if they finished the season hot. I like the Jags defense in this game, Pitt won't find it easy scoring TDs. We'll see.
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Posted: 1/10/2018 1:06:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bpcuno:

Can't wait to see Keenum choke like Goff did.  No playoff experience vs veteran QB.  No team has ever hosted a Superbowl in their home stadium and that won't change this year either. 

This statement is the biggest BS I've been hearing this playoffs. How many of the 51 teams hosting the Superbowl were actually in the divisional round and had a legitimate chance to get to the SB? I'd say 3-4 at a maximum.
FavzOnly PM FavzOnly
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:17:02 PM

With you on the Vikings as well. I have them for SB at 8-1, but will be doubling down on them for this game too.

But the Jags pick I am not too confident with. I like Pittsburg, but the books got it right on the money at 7 points. Gonna be tough, but I think Pitts squeezes it out. Havent placed a bet yet, hoping line drops down but I doubt it.

Achilles1629 PM Achilles1629
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:21:00 PM
Nobody is talking about the Pittsburgh defense. I'm not saying they are anywhere close to the Jags now that Shazier is out but we may see a very aggressive game plan come this weekend. Haden will be playing this weekend which has to be a boost and with the time off I'd the Steelers to get after Bortles. It's a broken record because it's so obvious but if the Jags are unable to run, Pittsburgh will get to Bortles and Bortles will be the guy turning it over. As for the Steelers, with Bryant, AB and Juju the Jags will be forced into nickel situations. That leaves Bell matched up against a linebacker and those who know football....they will tell you that is a recipe for disaster. This postseason like last until he was "injured", will be all about Bell. He is the BEST player in the NFL and I'd expect him to be heard from come this weekend. Ratings, drama, money and two hall of fane qbs facing off next week is why the Steelers move on this weekend to the AFC championship game. 
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:27:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FavzOnly:

With you on the Vikings as well. I have them for SB at 8-1, but will be doubling down on them for this game too.

But the Jags pick I am not too confident with. I like Pittsburg, but the books got it right on the money at 7 points. Gonna be tough, but I think Pitts squeezes it out. Havent placed a bet yet, hoping line drops down but I doubt it.


I disagree. Did you happen to see the advanced line prior to the Jaguars/Bills game?
Humvee77 PM Humvee77
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:27:59 PM

The question ultimately is do you trust Bortles or Big Ben to get you to the next round. My money is with Ben.

 

I did a 6 pt tease NE and PITT.

ramboo PM ramboo
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:30:49 PM

The weather is going to be worse in Pittsburgh Sunday and there will be more pressure than last weekend in Jacksonville.

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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:32:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Nobody is talking about the Pittsburgh defense. I'm not saying they are anywhere close to the Jags now that Shazier is out but we may see a very aggressive game plan come this weekend. Haden will be playing this weekend which has to be a boost and with the time off I'd the Steelers to get after Bortles. It's a broken record because it's so obvious but if the Jags are unable to run, Pittsburgh will get to Bortles and Bortles will be the guy turning it over. As for the Steelers, with Bryant, AB and Juju the Jags will be forced into nickel situations. That leaves Bell matched up against a linebacker and those who know football....they will tell you that is a recipe for disaster. This postseason like last until he was "injured", will be all about Bell. He is the BEST player in the NFL and I'd expect him to be heard from come this weekend. Ratings, drama, money and two hall of fane qbs facing off next week is why the Steelers move on this weekend to the AFC championship game. 

Are you laying the TD? 
Humvee77 PM Humvee77
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:32:16 PM

I like Minnesota. I agree with LC that NO is fool's gold. CAR could have easily pulled that victory. The NO secondary is not good. They were beat bad by TB. CAR could have easily won last week. Cam had 300 yards passing and 2 TDS and should have had a 3rd TD if K. Clay caught that endzone pass in the corner. MINN's defense is for real and I think they are going to exploit the NO secondary. I am still debating on the +4.

 

I may tease this or do a ML parlay with MINN. 

Humvee77 PM Humvee77
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:34:13 PM

LC,

Do you trust Bortles to hit the wideouts. I am not too keen with the Jags' WR core. I just don't see Bortles making the plays to keep JAC in the game. But, I do agree Shazier's absence could be exploited. 

LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 1/10/2018 2:36:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Humvee77:

LC,

Do you trust Bortles to hit the wideouts. I am not too keen with the Jags' WR core. I just don't see Bortles making the plays to keep JAC in the game. But, I do agree Shazier's absence could be exploited. 


Yes
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