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**** NFL Sunday Analysys ****

Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: **** NFL Sunday Analysys ****
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/28/2011 6:37:12 PM
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Everyone loves the Lions so far, including me. They are a very thrilling team to watch. The offense has been great so far and Calvin Johnson is a beast. Unfortunately for them, this is a very tough match-up against the Cowboys. The biggest concern for the Lions is their offensive line and their run defense. The Cowboys are #1 in sacks this year and Felix Jones just averaged 8.2YPC against a much stronger Redskin defense last week. Yes the cowboys squeaked by that win last sunday but that was with tons of injuries, 4 bobbled snaps (ex-cowboy on the redskins knew Romo's snap count), and Romo fresh off a rib injury. Players will only be healthier this week by default and Phil Costa will definitely not have 4 bobbled snaps 2 weeks in a row. Coaches must be on his behind all week about that. The Cowboys weakness last week was also their offensive line as Romo didn't have much time in the pocket and face a much more fierce pass rush in the Lions but with Felix Jones expected to have a solid running day against the Lions below-average run defense, Romo will be in 3rd and short's all day nullifying the Lions great pass D (a little).
Pick: Cowboys PK


Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams

The Redskins have some problems going into this weeks game. First, their run game is non-existant. Tim Hightower just ran for 2.9 YPC against the Cowboys sunday night and will face a pretty similar run defense in the Rams. Rex Grossman continues to show some good throws but also is making some bad decisions as well. Redskins just left a lot of emotion on the field last sunday and came up short losing by 2 against their division rivals. I expect them to be flat against a hungry Rams team who is in desperate need for their first win. Steven Jackson is supposed to suit up as well which will be a great help. The Redskins just surrendered 114 rushing yards to a hobbled Felix Jones with an 8.2 YPC average. Teams that get blown out and are off a spread loss of 25+ are 80-44 ATS the next week.
Pick: Rams PK

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs

This spread IMO should be Vikings -3 at the minimum but due to their 0-3 record and the Chiefs playing the Chargers close, we are getting great value at -1. The Vikings are clearly the better team here. They have a very stout defense who can rush the passer and as you saw last week, Kevin William's return is a huge help to that defense. The Vikings have 9 sacks already and will get to Cassell early and often. They also have a very good run defense which is the only thing the Chiefs can do now that Charlie Wies is gone as offensive coordinator for the Chiefs. I really don't see how the Chiefs are going to convert first downs and move the chains at all in this one. The Chiefs threw everything at the Chargers and had a chance to win the game late but Cassell threw a pick to end the game. They are sure to be in a letdown mode this week.
Pick: Vikings -1

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

What's wrong with the Bears defense this year? Their offensive line is horrible as usual but that's expected. The Bears have given up over 275 passing yards every week so far this season which is very unlike them. Other than week 1, the Bears have been giving up first downs on third and long's consistently and blowing many coverages. The panthers are playing a lot better on offense with Cam Newton under center and Steve Smith fired up again finally having a QB with an arm. There defense is still lackluster but the Bears have one of the worst offensive coordinators in the game and fail to give the ball to their best offensive player week after week (Forte). With all the problems on that offensive line I really have no idea why they don't run the ball more when they have a running back of that caliber. The Bears had that game against the Packers circled on their calendar ever since they got knocked out of the playoffs by them last year. They put everything they had into that game and came up short. I really don't see them matching the same energy output as last week and they are for sure to be flat this week against a newly excited Panthers squad.
-
Fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. Since 1990: 307-173 ATS. 64%
Pick: Panthers +7



Picks:
Cowboys PK
Rams PK   (POW)
Vikings -1
Panthers +7
Steelers +4
Patriots -4
Titans/Browns Over 38.5

Leans:

Cardinals
Dolphins
(might add these later)

5-2 Last Week
1-0 POW
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/28/2011 6:37:24 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans

The Steelers showed a lot of weaknesses last week against the Colts. They couldn't run the ball and they couldn't block anyone as that offensive line has tons of injuries. The Texans just put up 33 points and almost beat the Saints before falling short on a last minute drive by Drew Brees. Despite all this, im still choosing the Steelers this week. The Steelers were 11 point favorites against a team that is projected to finish in the bottom 5 of the league this year without Peyton Manning and by the looks of the game last week, it seems as if they didn't even show up for the game and had no interest in it. After last week's sub-par performance and playing a much tougher Texan squad this week along with them being 4 point underdogs I definitely think they will be fired up feeling a little disrespected to be underdogs against an unproven Texans team.
-Big Ben is 14-8 ATS as an underdog
-Teams that did not cover game 1 of a 2 game road trip are 107-71  60% since 2005 in game 2 of road trip ATS.
Pick: Steelers +4

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders

The Patriots are the better team here. If the patriots won last week this spread would be -7 at the least. Despite Brady having 4 picks last week they still only lost by 3 points.  A lot of people are saying the Patriots defense is one of the worst in the leagues but really its their pass defense that is their Achilles heel. Their run defense has been pretty good and Albert Haynesworth's big body is expected to be back this week. Bill Bilicheck is the smartest coach in football and will find a way to shutdown Darren McFadden. Jason Campbell is not a QB that can carry the load on his shoulders. Tough match-up for them although they have looked very good thus far.
-Tom Brady is 22-11 ATS after a loss.
Pick: Patriots -4
Jmt908 PM Jmt908
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Posted: 9/28/2011 6:47:30 PM
i feel like the skins are in a no win situation this week, even if they had won on monday night this game would be viewed as even a bigger chance for a let down. I see why people are backing the rams in this spot but you also have to consider how bad of a team the rams still are and sometimes even desperation won't be enough to overcome all their problems...just thinking out loud...gl
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Posted: 9/28/2011 6:55:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jmt908:

i feel like the skins are in a no win situation this week, even if they had won on monday night this game would be viewed as even a bigger chance for a let down. I see why people are backing the rams in this spot but you also have to consider how bad of a team the rams still are and sometimes even desperation won't be enough to overcome all their problems...just thinking out loud...gl


Appreciate your input but my pick isn't solely on desperation. Steven Jackson can run better than an injured Felix Jones and if Jones can average 8.2 YPC against the Skins, Jackson should do the same making it easier for Bradford and company. Nothing has changed since last week as per the Redskins run defense, the Rams should be able to run all over them.
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:09:51 PM
I will be going with Detroit and Washington. Great writeups
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:12:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I will be going with Detroit and Washington. Great writeups


Thank you. I expect why your taking the Lions but whats your reasons behind backing Washington if you don't mind? Would love to see others perspectives on opposing sides.
bobafett PM bobafett
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:27:52 PM
like cowboys...like rams.....
Stevedore PM Stevedore
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:33:09 PM
Love almost all of your plays this week, you should have another strong week.  I really like your Rams, Carolina, and Pats plays.  I'm going the other way on Pitt, and Dallas.  Injuries are a big concern for both of these teams, as Pitt's offensive line is in shambles and like Houston off the loss, although I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about Houston's all to familiar habit of choking games away in the 4th quarter.  I really believe this is a turning point in Houston's season from a mental or psyche standpoint, and for that reason I feel they'll throw everything at the Steelers to get the win.  

Dallas is limping into this win and with a bye on deck, they may opt to rest certain players to give them extra time.  Also, coming off the emotional win where they were clearly outplayed against their divisional rival Redskins, the Cowboys appear to be running on fumes and will just hope for the best against the surging young Lions.  GL with all your plays, enjoy reading your analysis every week.
Cyrax PM Cyrax
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:33:31 PM
I like the Patriots also
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Posted: 9/28/2011 7:59:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stevedore:

Love almost all of your plays this week, you should have another strong week.  I really like your Rams, Carolina, and Pats plays.  I'm going the other way on Pitt, and Dallas.  Injuries are a big concern for both of these teams, as Pitt's offensive line is in shambles and like Houston off the loss, although I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about Houston's all to familiar habit of choking games away in the 4th quarter.  I really believe this is a turning point in Houston's season from a mental or psyche standpoint, and for that reason I feel they'll throw everything at the Steelers to get the win.  

Dallas is limping into this win and with a bye on deck, they may opt to rest certain players to give them extra time.  Also, coming off the emotional win where they were clearly outplayed against their divisional rival Redskins, the Cowboys appear to be running on fumes and will just hope for the best against the surging young Lions.  GL with all your plays, enjoy reading your analysis every week.


Thanks for your insight. At first glance Houston's defence looked much improved this year under Wade Phillips but taking a closer look that was against Kerry Collins first game as a Colt and the 0-3 Dolphins. Week 3 they gave up 40 points and 454 yards to the Saints. Steelers are a veteran team that must feel disrespected here. Steelers are 34-16 ATS in their last 50 as an underdog. 68%

GL to you. ( besides on the Texans and Lions of course )



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Posted: 9/28/2011 9:43:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Cyrax:

I like the Patriots also



dman81 PM dman81
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Posted: 9/29/2011 12:42:43 AM
How about some 10pt teaser leans you see value in? 
MILKMAN0923 PM MILKMAN0923
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Posted: 9/29/2011 12:51:54 AM
here is a nice write up I found, not taking any credit for it......


As it relates to Washington and St. Louis, I struggle to understand how St. Louis has been favored at any point in this game. The Rams have lost by a combined score of 96-36 through three games
this season, including playing two games at home and failing to even cover the spread by two touchdowns in each. They have one of the most injury-plagued rosters that should be getting healthier as well as a young team that should be improving, but that still should not make up for what appears to be an obviously off-base characterization by the linesmakers. Even assuming that
the recently banged-up Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, Cadillac Williams, Danny Amendola, Greg Salas and Michael Hoomanawanui play healthy (as it looks like they will and as we projected they will), the Rams rank as one of our bottom six teams overall and in the bottom seven in passing and against the run. Even though they have played one of the ten toughest schedules in the NFL so far, the Rams are 0-3 and no game has been close.
Washington is heading to St. Louis after a tough loss, 18-16, to the Dallas Cowboys on the road. The Cowboys are a likely playoff team and currently rank eighth in the NFL in our Power Rankings.
On the year, Washington has played the 18th toughest schedule, is 2-1, ranks 17th in our PowerRankings and has an above average offense (14th) and defense (7th). The Redskins do not have a
team that is built to blow teams out, but they are also sound, without great weakness and unlikely to hurt themselves in this game. As anything greater than a field goal favorite, it's hard to trust a team like that. But against just a one-point line (or as a PK as it stands right now), trusting the Redskins to do what it takes to win is more than reasonable.
CurtisBlow304 PM CurtisBlow304
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Posted: 9/29/2011 1:19:25 AM
I like your picks & write ups a lot. I agree with the Rams. Huge game for them. Redskins short week coming off emotional lost to their biggest rival. Rams good run D. I LOVE the under in this game. No way I can back that banged up Cowboys team. I think Suh gets to Romo & it's Fairley's first game back. Cowboys won't have an answer for Calvin Johnson & Pettigrew will open things up. Romo doesn't have it in him to win two games in a row the way he's been. Playing hurt..he'll go back to choking this week. Lions 30-20. Love the Vikings play. Think you may have something there on Panthers..& I love the Pats & the OVER is my big play of the week in Oakland. 38-31 Pats

Thanks
CurtisBlow304 PM CurtisBlow304
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Posted: 9/29/2011 1:20:55 AM
Also, I love the Bucs this week on Monday Night. Colts are worst team in the league. And I can't back the Steelers this week after seeing them cost me 600 dollars on Monday. SMH. Curtis Painter 80 yard drive TD against Steelers D to cost me BIG BUCKS. Really? Really? I hate Big Ben.
efro PM efro
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Posted: 9/29/2011 4:03:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CurtisBlow304:

Also, I love the Bucs this week on Monday Night. Colts are worst team in the league. And I can't back the Steelers this week after seeing them cost me 600 dollars on Monday. SMH. Curtis Painter 80 yard drive TD against Steelers D to cost me BIG BUCKS. Really? Really? I hate Big Ben.


um, the steelers at no point in the game were covering the 10.5 pt spread and this wasn't too tough...glad you didn't wager too much tho
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Posted: 9/29/2011 4:17:43 AM
Pats
Posted using a mobile device.
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Posted: 9/29/2011 4:48:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I will be going with Detroit and Washington. Great writeups
  So many people are on Rams. They have no go to reciever, Jackson s still running with cane.  I m hoping Rams lose this weekends and go into bye so i can bet on them vs Pacs.
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Posted: 9/29/2011 5:16:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MILKMAN0923:

here is a nice write up I found, not taking any credit for it......


As it relates to Washington and St. Louis, I struggle to understand how St. Louis has been favored at any point in this game. The Rams have lost by a combined score of 96-36 through three games
this season, including playing two games at home and failing to even cover the spread by two touchdowns in each. They have one of the most injury-plagued rosters that should be getting healthier as well as a young team that should be improving, but that still should not make up for what appears to be an obviously off-base characterization by the linesmakers. Even assuming that
the recently banged-up Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, Cadillac Williams, Danny Amendola, Greg Salas and Michael Hoomanawanui play healthy (as it looks like they will and as we projected they will), the Rams rank as one of our bottom six teams overall and in the bottom seven in passing and against the run. Even though they have played one of the ten toughest schedules in the NFL so far, the Rams are 0-3 and no game has been close.
Washington is heading to St. Louis after a tough loss, 18-16, to the Dallas Cowboys on the road. The Cowboys are a likely playoff team and currently rank eighth in the NFL in our Power Rankings.
On the year, Washington has played the 18th toughest schedule, is 2-1, ranks 17th in our PowerRankings and has an above average offense (14th) and defense (7th). The Redskins do not have a
team that is built to blow teams out, but they are also sound, without great weakness and unlikely to hurt themselves in this game. As anything greater than a field goal favorite, it's hard to trust a team like that. But against just a one-point line (or as a PK as it stands right now), trusting the Redskins to do what it takes to win is more than reasonable.


On paper I agree the Redskins are a better team. But such an emotional loss to go along with a desperate Rams team who will only be healthier this week. Next week they have a bye and you bet they will play every down with 110% effort to avoid going into their bye week 0-4. Steven Jackson should have a solid outing which was lacking in the first 3 Rams games leaving Bradford in 3rd and longs. I think things will be different this week and like the home-field advantage as well.
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Posted: 9/29/2011 5:18:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CurtisBlow304:

I like your picks & write ups a lot. I agree with the Rams. Huge game for them. Redskins short week coming off emotional lost to their biggest rival. Rams good run D. I LOVE the under in this game. No way I can back that banged up Cowboys team. I think Suh gets to Romo & it's Fairley's first game back. Cowboys won't have an answer for Calvin Johnson & Pettigrew will open things up. Romo doesn't have it in him to win two games in a row the way he's been. Playing hurt..he'll go back to choking this week. Lions 30-20. Love the Vikings play. Think you may have something there on Panthers..& I love the Pats & the OVER is my big play of the week in Oakland. 38-31 Pats

Thanks


Why will Romo go back to choking this week? He's playing a defense that is nowhere near the Redskins defense and Romo will be healthier by default. Have to disagree with you here. Also Fairley is still having foot problems and was reported today that he might need another week before returning.
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Posted: 9/29/2011 5:20:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Chimpo:

  So many people are on Rams. They have no go to reciever, Jackson s still running with cane.  I m hoping Rams lose this weekends and go into bye so i can bet on them vs Pacs.


The same could have been said about Felix Jones who dislocated a shoulder the week before facing the Redskins. He still ran for 115 yards on 15 carries.
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Posted: 9/29/2011 5:22:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dman81:

How about some 10pt teaser leans you see value in? 


Vikings would be first on my list. Followed by Rams, Cowboys, and Bengals. GB would be my last option depending on the line you get.

GL this week. Saw your perfect thus far in teasers. Congrats
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Posted: 9/29/2011 5:43:40 AM
good looking card. best of luck!  
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Posted: 9/29/2011 6:03:43 AM
that's a very nice card u have....but why would u fade detroit? i mean they could be in a spot for a letdown but been a covering machine and over...so y break the spell is either u ride them till it break or just stay away....i totally agree with you on the st louis play...but my theory on betting is stay away from sucky team unless they underdog and getting double points for the spread....i would like to see u play az that seem like a solid play than the ram....giants coming of a big win against their division rival and going on a road 2 weeks in a road is hard to win 2 game in a road in the nfl....and plus az is a good team at home and as good giants defense is they don't have a db that can cover fitzgerald and plus they coming of a lost to the lowly seatle is a good spot to back them up since public is all over giants and spread is going down...and i might consider u taking a look at the cincy pick might be a good one 2 :)
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Posted: 9/29/2011 8:21:17 AM
gl man
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