Hi Vanzack, a friend (a degenerate gambler, I think thats what you call them) read this thread and told me about it. We discussed this topic many times (he still gambles and loses, just like nearly everyone) and I think I have some insights for you. Please excuse my english, I havent written in this language for ages.
Before I answer your questions: I worked for an internet bookie and Ive been betting, too, so I know both sides.
1. Where does a company like sportsinsights get their numbers?
They get them from the bookies. Some bookies give them away, some dont. Most of em tell the truth. Some openly give them away, betfair, caribsports and sportsbook.com for example. You dont even have to register there.
2. Why would any sportsbook give up to sportsinsights (or anyone like them) any information about betting patterns?
Because the betting doesnt change, no matter if you give the numbers out or not. For ever player who thinks "wow, the public is on Team A 90% AND the line moved in their direction.. Ive gotta follow that", theres another one who thinks "the public always loses... Team B for me". All in all, the percentages are not the secret about a bookies success, so theres no need to hide them.
3. What type of sportsbook gives up these numbers? If crappy
sportsbooks with 500 dolar limits are the main contributors, what good
is that? Does pinnacle really give out these numbers? Try walking up
to a Vegas sportsbook and ask the manager about their handle - let me
know what they say....
It doesnt matter who gives out numbers. Bookies cant just change their lines randomly. If the whole world has -6 or -6.5 and the betting is spread 50%/50% and a small bookie gets pounded on the -6.5 (lets say 95%/5%), he cant change the line to -8, even if he would have to in order to not lose money. There is a worldwide consensus to stay within a special range with your lines, so numbers from one bookie tell you nothing... you need every number out there, every bet placed in the world.
This worldwide consensus is always between 58% and 42% for every 2-way-handicap-sports event out there. If it isnt, the line is adjusted... usually at the bookie where it is off the most. The others just follow. So if a line moves against the percentages, it just means that the percentages from that one bookie arent the percentages the other bookies have.
4. Think about the business model of sportsinsights. Spread a
popular belief that you know more than the average gambler, then charge
for that info - sounds a lot like a tout in different clothes if you
ask me. Explain sportsinsights motivation to be forthright in any
capacity.
They want to give betters a chance to fulfill their dream. Making money without working. This dream is underlined by the idea of "sharps" existing and television that shows rich guys with big cigars playing poker... young people with money to spare want that, too, and in their need, they look for every possible way to beat the bookies. So yes, it is a tout service in different clothes.
5. Assuming the numbers are real, and from a real sporstbook, and
from legitimate sportsbooks - what do they mean? What - specifically -
do you do with them and why would that make any sense?
They mean nothing at all. They are just like the stats on this page. They are one of many things that suck people into betting with the thought of making money off it. Its just another stat. And at transforming stats into winners, bookies are unbeatable... There is no number that you can come up with that no bookie knows.
6. Do people who bet more money win at a higher percentage than those who dont bet as much?
Theres the big answer youve been waiting for. And the answer is no. Because big money doesnt mean "big money won with extremely great gambling skills". Big money can be rich kids burning their parents' money, businessmen who do it just to have someone to root on or people chasing losses with big amounts they cant afford.
On the other hand, there could be people with a great sense for betting who cant afford bets bigger than $5. Even if you hit 70% for two whole seasons in the NFL and you bet 5 games per week, you only are up around $180. Thats 1/20 of a big bet of a rich kid with no clue.
There are no sharps moving lines. Thats just part of the big story. Yes, there are some "professional betters". They usually win by middling, not by hitting 90% of their bets. So if a line is moving in one direction, it doesnt mean it is a winner. It could just be a guy buying a line who knows it swings in another direction, where he buys the opposite. Even if he is betting the game the normal way, he still only hits 5 of 10, just like the rest of the guys out there. So in 5 of 10 occasions, he loses. Just like Average Joe.
7. Please provide any history, statistics, or a model of when to
use the numbers and how. Not a vage answer - but specifics - with
backup. Example: When a team is 80% or higher, and the line has moved
1 point in the opposite direction, that team wins at a 58.5% rate over
the past 5 years.
There is no such model that has a higher percentage than 58% winning over the years. 58 is the magic number that has to be reached, because of the juice on the lines. If you ever read about a "system" and the "system" is over 60%, check if its really 60% over a bigger period of time. Otherwise its just a statistical edge that will even out over the years. I have not known of any system that produces more than 58% winners. If there was one, there would be no big casinos all around the world.
To finish this, around 80% of all betters lose consistently. Consistently meaning everything they load into their account. The others win or break even, and these numbers stay the same regardless of the average wager size. Of the losers, approx half would break even or win if they didnt chase their losses. And of the winners, around half just win because of lucky parlays or a win streak and a payout after the streak. Most of these people have the won money back in their account after one week and have lost it again after another week.
Hope to give you a nice insight. Cheers, Marty