Then don't read them.
You can't do it, can you?
Then don't read them.
You can't do it, can you?
Then don't read them.
You can't do it, can you?
I do agree that you can make assumptions about money bet on a game. Certainly, Oklahoma had more money bet on them than OK ST. It happens. But can you or anyone tell me what the results are historically when a line move is significant? I would think that would be in someones hip pocket who tracks line movement, but I have a lot of trouble getting these kinds of answers.
Another thing about line movement - there is a big difference in a line move on a monday than an hour before gametime. Limits on openers are very small, and they will move openers very fast - as opposed to limits being 20X the opener limits - and they barely move with limit bets. This is something that nobody really considers. A 1k bet on a monday might move the line the same as a 50K bet on Sunday. How does that figure in to this whole percentage thing?
I do agree that you can make assumptions about money bet on a game. Certainly, Oklahoma had more money bet on them than OK ST. It happens. But can you or anyone tell me what the results are historically when a line move is significant? I would think that would be in someones hip pocket who tracks line movement, but I have a lot of trouble getting these kinds of answers.
Another thing about line movement - there is a big difference in a line move on a monday than an hour before gametime. Limits on openers are very small, and they will move openers very fast - as opposed to limits being 20X the opener limits - and they barely move with limit bets. This is something that nobody really considers. A 1k bet on a monday might move the line the same as a 50K bet on Sunday. How does that figure in to this whole percentage thing?
Well lets all agree on something: Capping games by simply fading the public is lunacy.
IMO, capping games successfully is done the following, in this order, feel free to agree or disagree:
1. Matchups on the Field
2. Situational shit like weather, amount of consecutive road games, travel schedule, locker room atmopshere, etc.
3. Gut
4. Finding the Double Reverse Trap: KIDDING
Well lets all agree on something: Capping games by simply fading the public is lunacy.
IMO, capping games successfully is done the following, in this order, feel free to agree or disagree:
1. Matchups on the Field
2. Situational shit like weather, amount of consecutive road games, travel schedule, locker room atmopshere, etc.
3. Gut
4. Finding the Double Reverse Trap: KIDDING
My opinion is that if this happens, it is WAY too small of a minority to be statistically significant. Is it possible? Sure.
But honestly, the one thing you are overlooking - and I think most overlook - is the incredible amount of SURE NO RISK money books can make by just doing their job. They dont need fixes. They dont need traps. They dont need any of that, and I think the lack of understanding about just how much money a well run book can make by just matching action is what spawns all of these conspiracy theories.
My opinion is that if this happens, it is WAY too small of a minority to be statistically significant. Is it possible? Sure.
But honestly, the one thing you are overlooking - and I think most overlook - is the incredible amount of SURE NO RISK money books can make by just doing their job. They dont need fixes. They dont need traps. They dont need any of that, and I think the lack of understanding about just how much money a well run book can make by just matching action is what spawns all of these conspiracy theories.
Van,
Im going to break down all the questions for you.
1. Vegas books have a team of people who's sole job is to report to sportsinsights all this critical information. Offshore books do the same.
2. In games where the bets are 60% and above Vegas usually takes some of the money on that 60% to pay the refs in the game to fix it so they win money.
3. Every game is fixed
4. Books provide this information because they honestly want every gambler to win.
Hope i answered your questions for you
Van,
Im going to break down all the questions for you.
1. Vegas books have a team of people who's sole job is to report to sportsinsights all this critical information. Offshore books do the same.
2. In games where the bets are 60% and above Vegas usually takes some of the money on that 60% to pay the refs in the game to fix it so they win money.
3. Every game is fixed
4. Books provide this information because they honestly want every gambler to win.
Hope i answered your questions for you
These are my thoughts the lines are brought by somebody like me who tracks everything about every team. You can occasionally get some pretty decent lines because it was miscapped. These guys are doing this for a reason beause its their life. they know what McNabb had for breakfast and if he took a shit before the game. like what was said earlier the public betting moves it up or down. I can out 1mil on Houston 3.5 and it would go to 4. thats the way its done. The best mines are the opening ones.
These are my thoughts the lines are brought by somebody like me who tracks everything about every team. You can occasionally get some pretty decent lines because it was miscapped. These guys are doing this for a reason beause its their life. they know what McNabb had for breakfast and if he took a shit before the game. like what was said earlier the public betting moves it up or down. I can out 1mil on Houston 3.5 and it would go to 4. thats the way its done. The best mines are the opening ones.
11.80 |
66.67 % |
I will tell you this. When I capped games myself I was horrible, always reloading my accounts. This year I started using the site exclusively with no capping and no thinking. Starting with baseball I have not reloaded any accounts offshore and with my locals I have had one bad week in football. I am not making a fortune but I am winning more and loosing a lot less when I do loose. There is a lot more to this and I will answer any questions you have just ask.
11.80 |
66.67 % |
I will tell you this. When I capped games myself I was horrible, always reloading my accounts. This year I started using the site exclusively with no capping and no thinking. Starting with baseball I have not reloaded any accounts offshore and with my locals I have had one bad week in football. I am not making a fortune but I am winning more and loosing a lot less when I do loose. There is a lot more to this and I will answer any questions you have just ask.
Where do the betting percentages come from?
The betting percentages are real numbers from real sportsbooks. All information comes directly from the participating sportsbooks' respective databases. Sports Insights has agreements in place with these sportsbooks to display betting percentages on individual sporting events to the public. Sports Insights polls the participating sportsbooks’ databases every 1-2 seconds and compiles running averages. These averages are expressed in terms of percentages and are displayed to the public in pie chart form. The "Market Average" betting percentages represent an average taken across the participating sportsbooks. Premium and Premium Pro Members can monitor betting statistics for individual sportsbooks before the data is averaged together.
List of Participating Sportsbooks:
Why would any sportsbook allow Sports Insights to display this information? Doesn’t this information hurt the sportsbooks?
This is one of the most popular questions asked. Let's just say it wasn’t easy getting the ball rolling. It took Sports Insights over a year to convince the original participants to allow the release of this information. It basically comes down to the sportsbooks wanting and needing to attract new members. The sports betting industry in general believes that the availability of betting percentages will soon become as common as standard betting lines. Sports Insights is the company that finally put all the pieces together and broke the ice. The sportsbooks that participate with us feel that members knowing which side the public is favoring will not hurt their business model. Bettors still have to pick winners. Think of this in another way. Why do sportsbook advertise on sites/phone services (touts) that guarantee winners? No matter what any site guarantees or offers, you still have to win. Sports Insights’ mission from day one has been to help its members make informed decisions based on facts. Always remember, any information is only as good as the person using it.
How long have you been in business?
Sports Insights went online in Feb 1999. It took close to a full year of development and negotiation to make the business plan a reality. Since 1999, Sports Insights has been offering betting percentages to the public. We are the only site in the world that offers sports betting stats from major online sportsbooks. Once people start using our information they have a hard time remembering life without it.
How are these percentages compiled?
The betting percentages are real numbers coming from real sportsbooks. They represent actual bets placed at multiple online sportsbooks. We have been offering this information to the public since 1999. Sports Insights has legal agreements in place with these sportsbook to display to the public the percentage of wagers on the spread,moneyline, parlay/teaser, and O/U, plus the #of bets placed on every sporting event. We poll each participating sportsbook's database every 1-2 seconds. Premium and Premium Pro Members are able to view each individual sportsbook's betting stats in real-time. In addition to original sports betting statistics, innovative Smart Money and Injury Report Alerts, and proven betting systems (Steam Moves, Surebets, Smart Money, Fade the Public), Premium and Premium Pro Members enjoy the sports betting industry's fastest betting odds updates. Basic members are only able to view a "Market Average" which is delayed 20mins. It took well over six months to write software stable enough to process this enormous amount of betting information coming from multiple sportsbooks on multiple continents.
Where do the betting percentages come from?
The betting percentages are real numbers from real sportsbooks. All information comes directly from the participating sportsbooks' respective databases. Sports Insights has agreements in place with these sportsbooks to display betting percentages on individual sporting events to the public. Sports Insights polls the participating sportsbooks’ databases every 1-2 seconds and compiles running averages. These averages are expressed in terms of percentages and are displayed to the public in pie chart form. The "Market Average" betting percentages represent an average taken across the participating sportsbooks. Premium and Premium Pro Members can monitor betting statistics for individual sportsbooks before the data is averaged together.
List of Participating Sportsbooks:
Why would any sportsbook allow Sports Insights to display this information? Doesn’t this information hurt the sportsbooks?
This is one of the most popular questions asked. Let's just say it wasn’t easy getting the ball rolling. It took Sports Insights over a year to convince the original participants to allow the release of this information. It basically comes down to the sportsbooks wanting and needing to attract new members. The sports betting industry in general believes that the availability of betting percentages will soon become as common as standard betting lines. Sports Insights is the company that finally put all the pieces together and broke the ice. The sportsbooks that participate with us feel that members knowing which side the public is favoring will not hurt their business model. Bettors still have to pick winners. Think of this in another way. Why do sportsbook advertise on sites/phone services (touts) that guarantee winners? No matter what any site guarantees or offers, you still have to win. Sports Insights’ mission from day one has been to help its members make informed decisions based on facts. Always remember, any information is only as good as the person using it.
How long have you been in business?
Sports Insights went online in Feb 1999. It took close to a full year of development and negotiation to make the business plan a reality. Since 1999, Sports Insights has been offering betting percentages to the public. We are the only site in the world that offers sports betting stats from major online sportsbooks. Once people start using our information they have a hard time remembering life without it.
How are these percentages compiled?
The betting percentages are real numbers coming from real sportsbooks. They represent actual bets placed at multiple online sportsbooks. We have been offering this information to the public since 1999. Sports Insights has legal agreements in place with these sportsbook to display to the public the percentage of wagers on the spread,moneyline, parlay/teaser, and O/U, plus the #of bets placed on every sporting event. We poll each participating sportsbook's database every 1-2 seconds. Premium and Premium Pro Members are able to view each individual sportsbook's betting stats in real-time. In addition to original sports betting statistics, innovative Smart Money and Injury Report Alerts, and proven betting systems (Steam Moves, Surebets, Smart Money, Fade the Public), Premium and Premium Pro Members enjoy the sports betting industry's fastest betting odds updates. Basic members are only able to view a "Market Average" which is delayed 20mins. It took well over six months to write software stable enough to process this enormous amount of betting information coming from multiple sportsbooks on multiple continents.
This is exactly the point vanzack is making. The linesmakers are not god, they have no idea how the game will play out. If they knew everything, why wouldn't the make the steelers a 14 point favorite this weekend in New England, and make a killing when everyone in the world bets on New England?
See what I'm saying?
This is exactly the point vanzack is making. The linesmakers are not god, they have no idea how the game will play out. If they knew everything, why wouldn't the make the steelers a 14 point favorite this weekend in New England, and make a killing when everyone in the world bets on New England?
See what I'm saying?
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