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Trends & Things week 5 2008 NFL

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Updates from week 4 >>
 
AFC goes 3-0 SU & ATS
Now the YTD  inter-conference numbers look like this >>
 
NFC leads AFC 7-6 SU
NFC leads AFC  7-6 ATS
 
********************************
Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game canceled )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS  
 
YTD ( by covers lines ) : 35 - 23 - 2 ATS ( 60.3 % )
 
****************
Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs 7 - 9
Week 2 : Overs 7 - 8 ( one game canceled )
Week 3  Overs 11 - 5
Week 4  Overs 10 - 2 - 1
 
YTD Overs lead 35 - 24 - 1 ( 59.3 % )
 
**********************
Underdog trend Pick of the week  comes in with
Green Bay Packers
 
Favorite Trend Pick of the week comes in with
San Diego Chargers
 
 These are 3-3  & 2-1 respectively for the year now
***************************
The featured trend...
 
 Underdogs of 7 or more  following a defeat of 3  or less ( including any overtime loss )  are 5-22 ATS ( 18 % )  
last 2 seasons ...comes through with San Diego Chargers.
This is was the first game for 2008 ...
 
The update is now ...5-23 ATS ( 18 % ) starting with 2006 season...***
*** this is how far I checked ...I have yet to double check it ...or someone else can with covers lines ...or the database of their choice ...as long as it is consistent ...
GameHunter added this >>
Home teams that lost by 3 or less as a double digit road dog the week before are 5-24 ATS past 20 years
 
***********************************
Bet Tracker ...week 5 >>>
 
Chicago ...82 %
Indianapolis : 80 %
New Orleans ...80 %
New England ...77 %
San Diego ....76 %
New York Giants ...75 %
 
***************************
to be continued ...>
 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
These are the biggest differentials based on Jeff Sagarin's relative rankings and actuall spreads ...
In order words , if you were to pick 5 teams based on the largest spread differences , these would be the teams and the corresponding spread advantage ...
Chicago + 11
NYG + 10.5
NO + 5.5
Caro + 5
Tampa Bay + 4
 
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Rookie
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Posted: #3
So Bal comes close, but not quite.
As far as gamehunter's fact. Can't find anything this week that would fall into that category, but will keep it under my hat.
 
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Posted: #4
loooks like favorites and overs so far. can we get some dogs and unders to come through this week
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #5
SD is 7-0 ATS off division game L2 seasons
Mia is 3-11 ATS off division game L3 seasons

Balt is 2-11 ATS with 6 or less days rest L2 seasons
 
Banned
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Posted: #6
ATLANTA & UNDER!
 
MVP
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Posted: #7
What is the total for the ATL/GB game?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Damn, I don't know if I wanna lay any money on SD this week after that near upset last week (even though they covered for me)...hmm
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
BTW Robert, where do you get your wager percentages from? Sportsinsights?
 
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Posted: #10
Those arn't my picks, they're just trends.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Yeah I know but Robert posted the Underdog/Favorite picks already and SD is the Favorite trend pick for the week
 
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Posted: #12
NY Giants 7-1 ATS in October L3 seasons
Seattle 1-6 ATS in October L3 seasons.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Wait a minute, I am stupid, those were last weeks trend picks (Green Bay/SD) lol
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Under is 21-7-1 the last 2 weeks!
 
Makes we wanna bet the unders across the board
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Under is 21-7-1 the last 2 weeks!
 
Makes we wanna bet the unders across the board

 

 I meant overs are 21-7-1 the last 2 weeks obviously

 
Captain
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Posted: #16
I see the confusion !...since I posted the trend picks from week 4 incorrectly ...
 
San Diego Chargers was the favorite trend pick from week 4 ....
Kansas City Chiefs ( not Green Bay Packers) was  the underdog trend pick from week 4 ..
.Both San Diego and Kansas city won and covered .
 
The choice for KC last week as I mentioned on week 3 ...>>>
 
"Again, the game with KC @ home against Denver  might prove a worthwhile bet as not only is the Home team 12-3 ATS in this rivalry , but KC is 9-1 ATS  @ home vs a team with double revenge ...That's week 4 "
 
San Diego was chosen in part because of the trend :
 
" Underdogs of 7 or more that lost by 3 or less prior game are
5-23 ATS  last 2 seasons ( plus one game in 2008 now )
Oakland had lost the game in week 3 vs Buffalo 23-24 and found themselves an underdog of + 9 in week 4 .
Oakland lost the game by 10 in week 4 and the trend held up ...
None this week ...
************
Ok , so moving on to week 5 >>>
 
LOOKING AT PRE-BYE AND POST-BYE TRENDS :
 
Teams that are coming off a bye >>>
Detroit , Indianapolis, Miami , New England, NY Giants , Seattle
 
Teams that are playing their pre-bye games >>>
Buffalo, Kansas City , Pittsburgh , Tennessee
 
These teams have a bye :
Cleveland, NY Jets , Oakland , St Louis
 
A few after-bye trends that applies this week :
 
 Divisional home dogs coming off a bye are 40-26 ATS and 24-9 ATS when the Underdog is coming off a SU and ATS loss . ( per Marc Lawrence )
Some more from that article :
"losing teams fare better than winning teams when playing with the benefit of a week of rest? They do. "
 
Entering this season and since 1980 teams with a win percentage of .333 or less are 117-92-1 (56%) with a week of rest (6-3 last season). ( Indianapolis , Miami , Seattle, Detroit this week )
 
Those with a win percentage of more than .333 are moneyburners at 215-226-9 ATS over the same span. ( NY Giants & New England this week )

 .333 or less rested home teams are 68-51-1 ATS. ( Miami & Detroit this week )

.333 or less rested home teams vs a divisional opponent are  better with a 40-25 ATS, ( 61.5%  ) ( Detroit this week )

Divisional home dogs with rest are 40-26 ATS ( Detroit this week )

 Divisional home dogs with rest are 24-9 ATS when they lost SU & ATS prior game ( Detroit this week )

Divisional dogs of > 5 points ( coming off a bye ) are  12-2 ATS  ( none this week )

Any Home dog of 6 or more points ( after bye week ) is 29-9 ATS since 1980 ( Miami this week )

Any Home dog of 6 or more points  ( after bye week ) is 25-5 ATS vs opponent that won 14 games or fewer prior year. ( Miami this week )

Any Home dog of 6 or more points ( after bye week ) is 22-2 ATS vs opponent  that won 14 games or fewer prior year as long as the HD did not lose by > 10 points prior week . ( Miami this week )

Miami qualifies as a dog of 6.5 points coming off their bye week vs San Diego ( won 11 games in 2007 ) and Miami won SU against NE before their bye week .

****************************

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
I found this article regarding Teams coming off a bye week >>>
 
"This particular article involves the situation where a team is coming off a bye week that was immediately preceded by a Clutch loss.

Definition of 'Clutch win and loss'  —a Clutch loss occurs when a team gives up what proves to be the final score of the game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or winning position, into a losing one.

This disappointing loss combined with an off-week immediately after seems to be a motivating factor for teams in the first game they play after the bye."
Teams coming off the above situation have been 39-14 ATS (73.6%)  since 1994, ( Indianapolis this week )
Indianapolis Colts were leading the Jacksonvile Jaguars 21-20 in the fourth quarter of week 3 , before Jacksonville scored the winning field goal to take the game .
4th Quarter - 0:04
 FG 

Colts 21 - Jaguars 23
Josh Scobee 51 yd. field goal 

That was a clutch loss , and the Colts emerge from their bye-week
to face Houston on week 5 ...
 
***************************
Something about big favorites such as we have this week between Dallas & Cincinnati ( 17 points )
 
" Since 1994, favourites of at least 14 points that are coming off a 14 point or greater ATS victory are a solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%)

In contrast, big favourites that failed to cover the spread in their past game or covered by less than a field goal, happen to be a dismal 16-28 ATS in their next game—with a 2-5 record ATS in 2007. ( Dallas this week )
Dallas who is favored by more than 14 points vs Cincinnati in week 5 , failed to cover the spread against Washington ( lost SU ) in week 4 .
 
*******************************


 
 
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Posted: #18
In all fairness , the same article that lists the trend of teams coming off a bye after a " clutch loss " as stated above , also highlights Houston ( which is coming off a " clutch loss " of its own with an overtime loss to Jacksonville in week 4 ( though not off a bye )
The article lists other reasons/trends  for picking Houston with a 62 % confidence percentage . This is negated by the other trend favoring Indi in this matchup IMO.
 
Captain
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Posted: #19

 

n      The Bye-Week system was implemented by then-commissioner Paul Tagliabue in 1990.

n      It was initially proposed to give players ‘rest and rejuvination’ time.  The real reason?  Expanding the NFL schedule to 17 weeks, thereby increasing T.V. revenues.

n      It worked so well, the NFL attempted a ‘2-bye weeks’ per team system in 1993.  It failed and they went back to 1-bye per team per year the next season.

n      This year, the bye weeks moved from weeks 3-9 to weeks 4-10.

n      Since inception, teams coming off of their bye week have won 52% of the time.

n      Recently (’05,’06’,and ’07), however, the winning percentage has increased to 58%.

 

 
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Posted: #20

Article from Nov 2007 >>

 

Year in and year out, 2 predominant themes surround bye-week scheduling. 

1)      WHEN a team gets their bye week.  Several theories abound.  Players and coaches can’t even agree on when the best time is for a bye week.  The punishment of training camp generates some opinion that an early-season bye is best.  However, others feel a late-season bye is better to reinvigorate a team for the stretch run.  History shows that there is very little evidence that either one affects a team’s chances of success.

2)      HOW the bye is going to affect the team the rest of the year.  If a team is playing well, will the bye kill their momentum?  Conversely, if a team is playing badly, could it give them time to fix the problems?

Overall, the assumed ‘advantage’ that a team has against their opponent coming off of a bye-week is overblown, however it is still there.  Statistical evidence shows that a team has a slight advantage coming out of their bye week, winning 52% of the time since 1990, although the trend seems to be growing, with post-bye teams winning 58% over the past 3 seasons.  This could be due to the fact that organizations are now figuring out how to best utilize the bye-week now that they have had time to work with it over the years.

Some organizations and coaches seem to perform better off of bye weeks than others.  Mike Shanahan has been very successful coming out of the bye week and proved it once again in 2007 with a victory with 2 weeks to plan.  The Vikings are always one of the best organizations to take full advantage of the bye week  Other teams that historically seem to thrive with 2 weeks off are the Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles. 

However, oddly enough, some organizations seem to regress after the extra week.  The Giants and Bucs are 2 of the worst teams coming off of a bye.  Other teams that seem to struggle coming off of the bye:  the Seahawks and Bengals.

 

 
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Posted: #21
some after bye-week trends to consider and draw from this year :
 
Dallas is 12-4 ATS after a bye week ( nov 16 @ Wash )
 
Buff is 11-3-1 ATS since 1993 after bye week ( oct 19 vs SD )
 
Under is 8-1 in Buff past 9 games  after bye week ( Oct 19 vs SD )
 
Under is 9-0 in Atlanta past 9 games after by week ( Oct 26 @ Phil )
Cin is 1-8 ATS in past 9 games after a bye week ( Nov 2 vs Jac )
 
NYJ are 6-0 ATS in past 6 games after a  bye week ( Oct 12 vs Cincy )
Oak is 0-5 ATS in past 5 games after bye week ( Oct 12 @ New Orleans )
Wash is 10-2 ATS in past 12 games after a bye week (  Nov 16 vs Dallas )
Detroit is 4-0 ATS past 4 games after a bye week ( this week )
 
Under is 4-0 in Houston past 4 games after a bye week
( Nov 2 @ Minn )
 
Over is 7-2 in Indi past 9 games after a bye ( this week )
 
Over is 9-1 in Minn past 10  games after bye week ( Nov 2 vs Hou )
 
 
 
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Posted: #22

SBR    Team Line Action - Where the money is going!

 
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring KANSAS CITY in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 59.6% of the time since 1992. (112-76)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in KANSAS CITY games 72.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-8)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CAROLINA games 51% of the time since 1992. (78-75)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CAROLINA games 62.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-9)

Edge= KANSAS CITY

NFL matchups as featured on SBR ...

according the bet tracker , the line opened at + 10 and it is now at + 9.5 with action evenly divided ...

according to covers various sportbooks , the line either opened at + 10 or + 9.5 with mayority of the books at + 9.5 presently , one at + 10 , and one at + 10.5

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #23
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 50.5% of the time since 1992. (104-102)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 30.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (10-23)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in DENVER games 51.6% of the time since 1992. (114-107)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in DENVER games 59.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-13)

Edge= Over

Line openes at 48 ..and currently @ 47.5 in some books

Since the Denver total stat favors the under I'm not sure , they should give the edge to the over , but that's what they have.

 

 
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Posted: #24
Buffalo is 0-9 SU before their bye week ...( Ariz currently -1 vs Buff ) This is Buffalo's pre-bye week game .
 
Game: Seattle @ NY Giants ( October trends )
NY Giants are 13-3-1 ATS in Oct games
Seattle is 6-24 ATS in Oct games
Detroit Lions are 1-10 ATS last 11 games overall
 
Game : Tampa Bay @ Denver
total : 48 / 47.5
Over is 10-1-1 in Denver games following a SU loss
Over is 13-3-1 in Denver's last 17 home games .
Over is 6-0 in TB's last 6 road games
Over is 6-0 in TB's following an ATS win
Over is 8-2 in TB's last 10 games over all
in this game if you check the total trends >>  Trends 
for both teams , they overwhelmingly favor the over ...
 
In such cases , a contrarian play has worked well in the past .
That's right ...Under
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
Minnesota @ New Orleans ...
 
total : 47 ..down to 46.5
another game where almost every strong  trend points to the Over :
 
Over is 8-0 in Minn's last 8 games in week 5
Over is 10-3-1 in Minn's last 14 games follwing an ATS loss
Over is 8-0-1 in Saint's last 9 games overall
Over is 14-3-1 in Saints' last 18 games vs NFC
Over is 7-0 in NO's last 7 games following an SU win
Over is 5-1-1 in these teams last 7 meetings
 
Same as above ...when two teams are playing each other that are exhibiting such strong trends to the over ( or under ) a reversal of the individual trends is often the winning play ..( no data to back this up )
 
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