Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +0.8 Units
Tue 04/19
UNDER 183.5 ATL/ORL
I see this game being very similar to the Bulls/Pacers contest last night. We have one team, ATL, that shot way better than their season average in game 1. The Hawks shot 51% from the field and 54% through the first 3 quarters (game was pretty much over in the 4th). On the season, this is a 45% shooting team on the road. What's even more interesting is that in the 4 regular-season games against ORL, Hawks averaged 86 ppg and shot 43% from the field. I think it's safe to assume that some 'regression' is in order today. In addition, just like the Bulls did last night, I expect Orlando to emphasize defense in this game. Unlike the Bulls, Magic actually lost game 1 of the series, thus they MUST put forth max effort today, especially on the defensive end. I see this team making the right adjustments and controlling the PACE in this one. Orlando is the #1 defensive-rebounding (#1 DRB%) team in the NBA, while the Hawks are the 2nd worst offensive-rebounding (29th ORB%) squad. (By the way, teams that play D and rebound the ball have a big advantage in the playoffs. My analysis here: https://tinyurl.com/3wqg2zh ) Once Atlanta is shooting a lower percentage in the game, expect many "one-and-done" possessions for this team. They don't get to the FT line and they don't really drive the ball to the 'hoop'. If Orlando can force the Hawks into a low-to-mid 40's from the field, the UNDER should hit. History has shown that to be the case. Having said that, Atlanta definitely has Orlando's 'number' this year. If I expect Magic to play hard, I expect the same for the Hawks. They're not satisfied to just get 1 road win here, they want to steal 2 games.
6 of the last 9 games in Orlando between the squads have gone UNDER. Also, all 4 of this season's contests went UNDER. Last game was at 181. Now the total is 2.5 points higher, an increase of 2 baskets. Not as much 'value' as the Bulls game last night (3 baskets change in the total from game 1) but enough to make a confident play on this one.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +0.8 Units
Tue 04/19
UNDER 183.5 ATL/ORL
I see this game being very similar to the Bulls/Pacers contest last night. We have one team, ATL, that shot way better than their season average in game 1. The Hawks shot 51% from the field and 54% through the first 3 quarters (game was pretty much over in the 4th). On the season, this is a 45% shooting team on the road. What's even more interesting is that in the 4 regular-season games against ORL, Hawks averaged 86 ppg and shot 43% from the field. I think it's safe to assume that some 'regression' is in order today. In addition, just like the Bulls did last night, I expect Orlando to emphasize defense in this game. Unlike the Bulls, Magic actually lost game 1 of the series, thus they MUST put forth max effort today, especially on the defensive end. I see this team making the right adjustments and controlling the PACE in this one. Orlando is the #1 defensive-rebounding (#1 DRB%) team in the NBA, while the Hawks are the 2nd worst offensive-rebounding (29th ORB%) squad. (By the way, teams that play D and rebound the ball have a big advantage in the playoffs. My analysis here: https://tinyurl.com/3wqg2zh ) Once Atlanta is shooting a lower percentage in the game, expect many "one-and-done" possessions for this team. They don't get to the FT line and they don't really drive the ball to the 'hoop'. If Orlando can force the Hawks into a low-to-mid 40's from the field, the UNDER should hit. History has shown that to be the case. Having said that, Atlanta definitely has Orlando's 'number' this year. If I expect Magic to play hard, I expect the same for the Hawks. They're not satisfied to just get 1 road win here, they want to steal 2 games.
6 of the last 9 games in Orlando between the squads have gone UNDER. Also, all 4 of this season's contests went UNDER. Last game was at 181. Now the total is 2.5 points higher, an increase of 2 baskets. Not as much 'value' as the Bulls game last night (3 baskets change in the total from game 1) but enough to make a confident play on this one.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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