Typically, I'm great at math, but this scenario is driving me crazy trying to figure out the smartest thing to do.
I recently bet a compact round robin, here's the ticket:
COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (10P-2T,10P-3T,5P-4T,1P-5T) [704] PORTLAND -5½-110 [712] MARQUETTE -2½-110 [724] MICHIGAN -14½-110 [737] IOWA STATE -1-110 [740] KANSAS -20½-110
650 /
3900
I hit the bottom 3 out of the 5 so far. Now, my bookies site doesn't compute the winnings/losses of a compact round robin till all games have been played. If I look at my history on his site for wins/losses, the two teamer and 3 teamer parlays for Michigan, Iowa State and Kansas have not yet been calculated.
I currently have a -$196 balance with this bookie. My question is, how much, and which of the two remaining games would be wisest to hedge out of?
Should I bet $500 on both games the opposite way for max value? It seems to me it'd be smartest to bet $500 on just the other way in the Marquette game. Reasoning behind this assumption is that if Marquette loses, I win the $500 bet, and still have a chance to hit the Portland play. If that happens and I miss the Portland play, I probably am very close to a $0 balance.
Typically, I'm great at math, but this scenario is driving me crazy trying to figure out the smartest thing to do.
I recently bet a compact round robin, here's the ticket:
COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (10P-2T,10P-3T,5P-4T,1P-5T) [704] PORTLAND -5½-110 [712] MARQUETTE -2½-110 [724] MICHIGAN -14½-110 [737] IOWA STATE -1-110 [740] KANSAS -20½-110
650 /
3900
I hit the bottom 3 out of the 5 so far. Now, my bookies site doesn't compute the winnings/losses of a compact round robin till all games have been played. If I look at my history on his site for wins/losses, the two teamer and 3 teamer parlays for Michigan, Iowa State and Kansas have not yet been calculated.
I currently have a -$196 balance with this bookie. My question is, how much, and which of the two remaining games would be wisest to hedge out of?
Should I bet $500 on both games the opposite way for max value? It seems to me it'd be smartest to bet $500 on just the other way in the Marquette game. Reasoning behind this assumption is that if Marquette loses, I win the $500 bet, and still have a chance to hit the Portland play. If that happens and I miss the Portland play, I probably am very close to a $0 balance.
If I've done my math correctly, I've won $345 with $550 remaining in bets.
Kansas Iowa State - WIN 25/65
Kansas Michigan - WIN 25/65
Kansas Marquette
Kansas Portland
Iowa State - WIN 25/65 Michigan
Iowa State Marquette
Iowa State Portland
Michigan Marquette
Michigan Portland
Marquette Portland
Kansas Michigan Iowa State - WIN 25/$150
$550 remaining $345 won
Maybe hedge $750 in both remaining games?
If they split I nearly break even, if either side covers (hedge bets or the round robin) I either win $1500 from the hedge bets or $3900-1500 = $2400 from round robin hitting minus the hedge bets...
If I've done my math correctly, I've won $345 with $550 remaining in bets.
Kansas Iowa State - WIN 25/65
Kansas Michigan - WIN 25/65
Kansas Marquette
Kansas Portland
Iowa State - WIN 25/65 Michigan
Iowa State Marquette
Iowa State Portland
Michigan Marquette
Michigan Portland
Marquette Portland
Kansas Michigan Iowa State - WIN 25/$150
$550 remaining $345 won
Maybe hedge $750 in both remaining games?
If they split I nearly break even, if either side covers (hedge bets or the round robin) I either win $1500 from the hedge bets or $3900-1500 = $2400 from round robin hitting minus the hedge bets...
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