Posted: 2/27/2012 12:10:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:
I really don't know what "we" have learned so far but here are a few things I have learned, and I would remind doubters that my stuff is not off the top of my head or some sort of impression I have. It is based in solid, rock hard statistics that I take the time to track and compile myself, so watch it with the "you're nuts" responses.
Fact: Home court advantage (HCA) is at or near an all time low. In a league where the home team traditionally wins about 64 or 65% of the games (last year 65.7%) home teams are winning only 58.8% of all games this year, 295-207. In the last 115 games played home teams have outscored visitors, in regulation time, 96.6 to 94.5, or by only 2.1 points per game. Sorry, I do not include O.T. and use per game stats because that would distort what I can expect in 48 minutes. If you want an overtime factor built into your handicaps do whatever you want to do, but I don't know how you would balance probability if two teams had an unequal number of overtime games.
Since the league average for regulation time scoring is now 94.47 ppg., I am computing home team power rating /.9893 - visitor power rating x .9893, a net home court advantage of only 2.033 points if two average teams play.
My personal opinion of this fact is that with the compressed schedule we
are seeing an unusual number of b2b and b2b2b2b games by home teams and
often the visitor is coming in actually better rested than the home
Opinion: One other concept to throw out, and this occurs every year, is "fade the bad teams, bet on the good ones". That would be great if linemakers were stupid and made lines based on true or perceived power ratings, but they aren't stupid and that is why they are gainfully employed, OK? What linemakers know, because it is part of their job, and I track, because it effects my view of a game, is that on any given night, on average, 69% of all bettors are inclined to back the Thunder, while only 33% are willing to back the Bobcats. Result? The Thunder are assigned an extra point or two, or three, whatever it takes to balance the action. If assigned a higher burden than they can carry it becomes the straw that broke the camels back. Some very good and very bad teams will both be close to 50-50 ATS the balance of the season. Play good, fade bad, won't work.