Posted: 1/12/2018 1:52:21 PM
Thru the years in the summer when I go thru my stuff, and amongst all the little notes, one of the things I look at are when to 'fade' the big boys (hey....nobody has ever gone 50-0-0) cuz I just know theres gonna be huge value in the lines. aside from the Sandwich spots --- the Barcas, Reals, Juves, PSG's, Munichs of this planet ALL screw up at least 5-7 times a year (ie drop points). and as luck has it, two of them go off this wknd; one is a doozy... the other is a trainwreck coming. Dont blame me, blame the schedule maker. without further ado, fastening my seatbelt:
Leverkusen/Munich - When two of my most successful & favorite type of trends collide...... :
Of all the "Big Boys" whom resume their schedule after winter break, Munich are very good..
Part of the reason these behemoths are 1) healthy/rested 2) CL has yet to re-start and the rotation of lineups would once again commence. things get really crazy all around Europe domestically in February once CL (and even Europa) knockouts start. & you can toss in a few of those Cup tourneys the big boys take freaking seriously. February is a landmine for favs (trust me on that one) anyways,case in point, Bayern are 9-1 in January the past 5 years (6 of those wins on road).
but heres where the train collision starts: Munich has won here just ONCE in last 9 visits to BayArena; 1W-6D-2L (experience has taught me to not step in front of such trains). When one club just seems to have anothers number while at home. sure, getting Munich at/near even money on the road looks awful tempting but I gotta back Lever in this spot. unbeaten at home, and right behind Munich before break in regards to form.
Leverkusen +.5 @evens
WANT another one?
Sunday: already made this play and am NOT reading one more word from any d*mn media report
Sociedad/Barca - for some bloody reason which I have been unable to explain to anyone for a really long time: Barca struggles when they visit Sociedad. their only win at the start of this decade was last year in the 1st leg of del Rey knockouts (ie... Barca had a full strength side) and they came away with a narrow 1-0 win on a PK.
Since 2010 Sociedad is 5-3-0L at home vs Barca.
Barca have not beaten them in a league match their last 6 visits here.
again....these are the types of trains I dont like sticking my neck in front of. scr*w the due diligence. Barca are -200+ road favs for a GOOD REASON, just like all those other years; league titles, deep CL runs, superstars galore joining the team, massive winning streaks.... I do not have an answer for this. nailed the draw last year @+450, +600 outright 2 years ago, 800+ outright 3 years ago..... blah blah blah. (like those 3 monkeys: covering my eyes, ears, mouth).
Sociedad to win @+615, Sociedad/Barca draw @+400
it is also unwise to fade PSG or Juve either. perhaps one can find a modicum of success going the HC route, but for me, in January, thats playing with fire. I know my boys rarely lose in January after break. PSG is right behind them.
Nantes/PSG - H2H?? 15 straight wins (in all competitions). and theyve won each of the past 7 by 2+ goals. nuff said.
and ohh, PSG are 13-2D-1 last 5 years in January too. plus, they now have one of the biggest "stat-padders" in europe on their roster (neymar). One of the topics our little group of lifelong friends brought up over the holidays was Neymar (which lasted all of 2 minutes as everyone agreed). one of the reasons he doesnt get the 'cred' to even be spoken in the same sentence as Messi & Ronaldo is the fact that he scores sooo many meaningless goals which looks "cool" at years end when the stats get compiled. very few of his goals vs tough competition are game winners. for someone of his status, he sure garners a lot of attention. but he just cant accept the fact that he's a 'lifer' "2nd option" on a team.
of Caviani's 19 league goals, nine of them have either given PSG the lead or pulled them to level (and we havent even discussed how many he scored to extend a a 1-goal lead to put the game away) so he will continue head-butting him off the penalty spot.
this is STILL Cavanis team.
PSG -2 @+128
GL to all