Posted: 3/13/2019 7:49:52 AM
Struggling to keep up with my updates and research... much easier without responsibility. this is the time of year where teams will start to get desperate and do things a little crazy.
mentioned before i like looking for overs, but the basic scenario i'd ideally find is a game that i'm expecting to be a 4-8 point outcome. the main factors i look for are my perceived tempo (possessions per game), 3-point attempts and at least some level of respectability in knocking them down, and at least free-throw shooting on the team I expect to be in front.
additional factors are tempo numbers on the team i expect to be in front (I want them to keep pace up when they get a 6-point lead), individual guard play where someone can go off for big games (hot hand tends to shoot a little quicker), and peripheral numbers that i can use to logically explain why a line is lower than i would expect (i.e. they just played a run of teams that prefer low-scoring games and recent biases are skewed to fewer points).
if i get the time, i'll be posting the thoughts. if not, good luck all