|Appreciate all the wisdom you're providing the covers community with your thoughtful insight. It really helps, and having the right discipline will help to steer the thread in the right direction. Looking forward to completing this years playoffs with a huge profit.
Posted: 5/12/2013 12:00:11 PM
I believe GS takes game 4 at home in Oracle, they've shown time and time again that they're considerable contenders, and understand that this is pretty much a must-win game for them. The pressure was on the Spurs to take back home court advantage, and they've accomplished that feat. I understand that they won't stop at that, but I believe the cinderella story Warriors will have a great opener to try and seal the game.
Tough pick, but if I'd have to play it I'd take GS +2. But of course, if Tony has taught us anything, it's to stay disciplined and be patient, so I'm a no play here.
Although I understand your philosophy to avoid parlays and exotics bets, what I must say is that Half bets, Quarter bets, and player props aren't necessarily bad bets or unfavorable in a bettors odds. I believe that these bets actually allow a bettor to creatively analyze parts of the game which can actually be accurate more often than not. This is one of the reasons why the juice on the lines are usually much higher. Just like you mentioned, the odds makers job is to generate a line that creates a 50-50 split of funds based off of perception. While this can be achieved to as much accuracy as possible, the effort it takes to try and even out every single line, such as player props or quarter bets, can be overwhelming even for Vegas.
Here's an example of what I mean, I believe the Spurs take the 4th quarter here. The line at 4th Quarter Spurs -.5 is a winner. Pretty simple explanation, the Warriors are a rookie team playing against the most veteran team in the league. There has already been great evidence of this in games 1-3. The young Warriors have already shown time and time again that they've blown leads late in the game, while this is one of the Spurs strong points. Also, in a majority of the games the Warriors have won, they were from games where they had huge 3rd quarters and usually, a nice lead into the 4th, where the other team starts to slowly creep back and you see the young Warriors start to struggle finding the right shot and taking it with confidence, while also making critical mistakes. This matchup IMHO is the perfect scenario for a Spurs 4th Quarter bet, especially with this line.
Spurs -.5 4th Quarter!
Just giving my 2 cents, hope this post isn't a nuisance.
Best of luck to your choices and once again, looking forward to working with you and this community to get some winners and make a huge profit this playoffs!