Posted: 9/17/2017 1:23:16 PM
Originally Posted by dbasports
Thank you sir my comment about cheating on her was a bad joke but gave us some good karma again because we know you wouldn't do that
Oh its ok. I just didn't respond. I'm too 'head-in-the-books' to even have time for cheating non-sense :P
Divorcing isn't good or healthy, and I really don't want to advocate it to anyone. It is unfortunate that I'm petitioning one. As reluctant as I am to be the one to file, I'll let you do the math as to what happened...
Anyways, some thoughts here for September:
(As the thread title is 'SEPTEMBER DOGS', I wanted to briefly talk about MLB and how it has changed in the last few years since I began this thread roughly)
Up until the last several years (after they added the extra wild card spot) Septembers were my best month just blindly taking big dogs against clinched over valued favs. The rules changed though. September isn't dogs on the blind month anymore. Definitely more thinking required now.
Consider the following COLD HARD FACTS:
My first post was in 2012
*Since 2005 to 2011, (prior to the first season the extra wild card spot was added), September dogs were, 1245-1614 +77.68 units on the blind.
*Since 2012 (first season wild card spot was added), September dogs are flip flopped: 932-1376 -110.03 units.
It seems telling what happened if you understood the premise of betting dogs late season to begin with: you bet against overvalued, don't need the win favorites. Things are different now, more often, team do need a win...MLB wanted to make late regular season more interesting. so no more freebies.
So I wanted to test the original premise, isolating post 2011 season results only: The thought: does the original premise STILL hold up, but this time we isolate dogs with opponents with a plethora of wins above .500.
Let's see what recent history says:
Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!
The premise holds true, it just needed to be more clearly defined. This is why keeping up with the rules and recent news in sports you cap is important.
That simple system is active on the Royals today. Will follow up if I'm betting them though.