Posted: 10/5/2012 6:47:14 PM
Hey Andy, for the most part my play on the Chiefs is nothing but gut instinct mixed with a little experience betting the NFL all these years. It just feels right. Also, you spoke about motivation when breaking down your Jets wager, and you can bring that same mindset with this game. IMO.
Kansas City is a team that has been getting beat up all year. They have a serviceable QB, and some offensive weapons that are really hard to matchup against(charles, moeaki, mccluster, bowe), especially for a Baltimore defense that IMO isn't NEARLY as good as they were the last decade or so. So coming into 2012 it was thought that their D can build off a decent finish to last year, and their offense while all healthy can make some noise. It hasn't exactly happened that way, and KC is a 1-3 ballclub who has looked horrible for pretty much all of the 240 minutes of football this year. Cassel is taking major heat, and Crennel has hinted that it might be time for a change. I feel that is a motivational bluff though and KC backers have nothing to worry about in that regards. The fans are getting on the team, and a promising season is getting very close to getting flushed down the toilet. It is a do or die game at home behind a raucous crowd, with a very winnable game next week against the Bucs before they go into their bye week. Losing this game might be the season, but two wins and heading into the bye 3-3 is a whole other beast. On the other side, Baltimore is 3-1. They are cruising along. They won their early season Super Bowl over the Pats recently. While Cleveland made them sweat a bit, they controlled that game for the most part. They have two huge games in the next couple weeks against Dallas and Houston. Not to say they are looking ahead by any means, but maybe THIS road game against lowly KC isn't gonna be their most "motivated" one. The media is sucking Flacco's person to no end. They are in talks as being 2nd or 3rd best in the AFC and a major contender for a SB berth, and IDK, I just don't think they are as good as prior years. Flacco is a much better QB at home(this game on the road), and Crennel's style defense I think can come up with a good plan to stop Baltimore's attack(take that with a grain of salt as they have been AWFUL so far this season).
Most of KC's woes have been because of turnovers. Costly turnovers. In a couple of their losses, early turnovers absolutely crushed them in games and ended them before they started. I just can't see them continuing to give up the ball the way they have. Also, for a 1-3 team who has pretty much been hammered in each game, they have won the total yards in all four games. Granted, get down early in each game and you can amass yards in desperation and garbage time, but the bottom line is they are moving the ball. I think KC wins this game straight up.
Another game I like is Jacksonville. I think they beat the Bears straight up as well. I don't like being a guy who says, "yeah, I think they win SU, BUT I'M GONNA TAKE THE POINTS," but it is still early in the season, and I'm looking to build up my bank a bit. Week 12, I have no qualms unloading on ML +250-400 teams, but week 12 I can mentally watch Jax or KC or NYJ play great and lose 20-17 rather than take those hits this early in the season. Anyway, the Bears offense is an absolute joke right now and laying a TD on the road is insane. I know I got +7, and I hope no one thinks I'm coming in here with BS lines. You know me...I'm not that guy. I just have a local who shade favs ridicolously and being it is my only book this year(I pulled out of all offshore lines for various reasons, and my other local closed shop about 24 hours before Week 1), I have to deal with shitty lines...for better or for worse. It's great for dogs so i can't complain there. At the same time, I'm beat with Cincy -4(looks to be 3 everywhere now), and probably NO(looking at 4.5 now).
Anyway, Bears offensive line....dogshit. Cutler seems to have zero chemistry yet with his receivers. Forte is banged up and I think gets bottled up here. Only way Bears win this is if JAX turns the ball over 3-4 times....and that's possible. Chicago has a decent D. But they are a bit undersized, and if Gabbert can be OKAY, and put the Bears in a spot where they can't load the box with 8-9 guys on 1st and 2nd down, I think JAX can bulldoze their way to a time consuming 125-150 yards on the ground. Run the ball, keep the clock moving, be balanced, and let their defense manhandle the brutal Bears offense.
Jets game, I agree with your writeup 100%. Same thoughts by me. MOTIVATION.
As for the Bengals. I friggin love this team. Dalton won me so much money at TCU(their defense as well), and the same intangibles he won games with in college, he brings to the NFL and brought it immediately. He doesn't panic under pressure. He can get tough yards with his legs. Not the strongest arm, but he can make every throw. He is very much in sync with his WR and TE's, and it doesnt hurt to have the best WR in all of football(imo AJ). Miami is scrappy, playing good ball. Their defense is physical and they are decent against the run, but they can be exploited throwing the ball, and I think Dalton has a field day. Can see this being 31-10 kind of game. Cincy's defense also is a bit underrated. I like their secondary and linebackers. And they bring crazy pressure on the QB. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but just from what I've seen with my eyes so far, they have to be averaging at least 5-6 sacks per game. Tannehill is in for a loooong day.
GL as always, buddy.