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Preseason Team Analysis and Ratings

Forum: College Football Page 3 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [College Football] Topic: Preseason Team Analysis and Ratings
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 11:45:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





Good News , Thorpe , I just read the HIPPAA statute , and there is no
mention of listing persons as OUT , Doubtful , Questionable , or
probable.

We're Good !!!!!!    

Thorpe  




FWIW , Injury reports are filling out now . I'm glad I waited to bet a
few plays. 


GLTA 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 11:51:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





Good News , Thorpe , I just read the HIPAA statute , and there is no
mention of listing persons as OUT , Doubtful , Questionable , or
probable.

We're Good !!!!!!    

Thorpe  



Sorry , Late night. 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:03:13 PM

C'mon Bookmakers . Put some Totals up Today. 


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:07:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

For those on the Forum who utilize Bill Connelly's
work for capping purposes , I recommend that you
check his MOV and WP projections for BOTH sides 
of a matchup that you are interested in .

Every season , I have found examples where he has
posted DIFFERENT MOV and WP projections for
both sides of a matchup.

Don't know why he does that 

GL 



This is one reason why I believe it is important to
verify the accuracy of any source of capping data
if you use it to put capital at risk.

GL
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:12:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

For those who utilize " Computer Cappers " as your
handicapping strategy . Here's something to think
about :

Breakeven
win % vs standard odds of -110 is 52.4 %
( actually 52.38 % )

2017 season results vs the spread for the most
prominent " Computer Cappers " are :

Sagarin Points..........52.43 %

Massey Ratings........49.01 %

ESPN
FPI.................51.24 %

FEI Projections.........50.87 %

Of 56 total " Computer Cappers " , only 4 finished
above " Breakeven ". Of those 4 the highest finish
was only  53.46 % . You're sure not going to get
wealthy on that percentage in your entire lifetime.

I post this to let all know that using these cappers
as your sole strategy just about assures you of a
losing season , and that learning to cap may be a
better alternative. FWIW , I learned this lesson back
in 1983. It has paid dividends ever since.

The 2017 results I've posted here are typical for
years past as well , so the win percentages posted
have not changed much over the years.

It is also interesting to note that all " Computer
Cappers " were only able to pick the straight up
winner 74.23  % of the time ( or less ) . This is also
consistent with Linesmakers current ability to make
the winning team the actual favorite.


 




FYI 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:14:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





It's time for me to prepare for this upcoming CFB
season , but I thought I'd leave the forum with
something to think about , especially for those who
are too lazy to cap and / or blindly follow the work of
others.
With regard to my post # 1, I took the time to verify
his data , and while I do not use it myself , for those
who do , I will leave you with a couple of questions
to ask yourselves relative to his data.

MOV Projections

1. What percentage of his MOV projections were
    incorrect by 40 or more points ?

Win Probability

1. What percentage of the time did he project the
    wrong team to win the matchup ?

If you are putting your capital at risk based on the
work of others , I highly recommend that you find
the answers to those questions .

 



FYI  
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:19:43 PM
I thought I would re post these as they go to the heart
of what this thread is all about .

Verifying the accuracy of the sources you use to
base your wagering decisions on.

When you know their limits of accuracy , you can use
them more effectively, and produce greater returns.

GL 


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:21:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping
tool , remember that all stats are backward looking
and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of
any future matchups unless they are tempered with
criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup.




WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 12:23:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season , on another forum,

I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis

of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.

This was done with emphasis on his MOV  and Win Probability projections.

My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all

games played.

While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all

who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the

accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy

of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.

You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.

It is well worth the time and the effort.

I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and

Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified

that data for accuracy and consistency.

 

WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 1:26:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:


C'mon Bookmakers . Put some Totals up Today. 





Ask , and ye shall receive.  Totals are going up now.


thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 8/11/2018 5:37:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





Good News , Thorpe , I just read the HIPPA statute , and there is no
mention of listing persons as OUT , Doubtful , Questionable , or
probable.

We're Good !!!!!!    

Thorpe  

Without the actual injury info, those statuses are useless depending on the coach.   The injury info is usually leaked out anyways, but we'll never see mandatory reporting of injuries for college players

Best of luck to you this year (not that you need it).  

I've been in a healthcare related field half my life...
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 6:00:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


Without the actual injury info, those statuses are useless depending on the coach.   The injury info is usually leaked out anyways, but we'll never see mandatory reporting of injuries for college players

Best of luck to you this year (not that you need it).  

I've been in a healthcare related field half my life...




Thorpe ,Since Sports betting is starting  to expand nationally , a few
conferences are discussing making injury reports mandatory.
I actually do not think it will take too long to adopt it across all of
College Football.

I've been retired from the field for almost 10 years now. I worked for
a Hospital Company and was able to travel nationally for them , while
being based in Las Vegas. The best of both worlds.

Thorpe , Best of Luck to you this season , my Friend 
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/11/2018 9:46:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




Ask , and ye shall receive.  Totals are going up now.







At first glance , it looks like we've got some value to
work with in these early totals. It will be interesting to
see if we get any decent action on them tomorrow.


WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/31/2018 11:55:05 AM
To Volatilis : You asked in another thread about if
there are any books on establishing line value.
Not to my knowledge , and as I said , I am very
thankful to learn TLV from a prominent Sports Bettor
here in Las Vegas back in the late ' 80's when I was
flying in from Chicago on Friday nights to bet College Football.
I won't say much about it other than this. Most of
the method I used in determining TLV back then has
changed dramatically . This is due to the evolution
of technique and strategy that is applied today vs
what was used 30 years ago. To maintain an edge
vs the Books , bettors must keep up with this .
Some do , most do not. That's why overall books
are able to maintain their advantage over bettors.
Many today , utilize " Power Ratings " in an attempt
to establish value. I do not find this method accurate
enough for my needs. Since I use Kelly , If I bet a
92 % WP wager , I am committing 78 % of my BR.
I have to be much more accurate than what PR's
can offer. The utliization of Kelly forced me to create
the method I use today to determine TLV.
If you consider establishing your own method ,
I highly recommend that you use a strategy based
on " Matchup Analysis " as you will find it to be far
more accurate .
In closing I have mentioned in this thread that
successfully capping College Football is NOT a
math problem and should not be treated as such.
If it was that simple , computer cappers like Sagarin
and Massey et al,.would do far better vs the spread
than the 49 - 50 % I have cited in previous posts ,
and bookmakers would also be able to do better
than making the wrong team the favorite 23 % of
the time. time for me to get back to business.

Good Luck . 




WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 8/31/2018 12:18:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

To Volatilis : You asked in another thread about if
there are any books on establishing line value.
Not to my knowledge , and as I said , I am very
thankful to learn TLV from a prominent Sports Bettor
here in Las Vegas back in the late ' 80's when I was
flying in from Chicago on Friday nights to bet College Football.
I won't say much about it other than this. Most of
the method I used in determining TLV back then has
changed dramatically . This is due to the evolution
of technique and strategy that is applied today vs
what was used 30 years ago. To maintain an edge
vs the Books , bettors must keep up with this .
Some do , most do not. That's why overall books
are able to maintain their advantage over bettors.
Many today , utilize " Power Ratings " in an attempt
to establish value. I do not find this method accurate
enough for my needs. Since I use Kelly , If I bet a
92 % WP wager , I am committing 78 % of my BR.
I have to be much more accurate than what PR's
can offer. The utliization of Kelly forced me to create
the method I use today to determine TLV.
If you consider establishing your own method ,
I highly recommend that you use a strategy based
on " Matchup Analysis " as you will find it to be far
more accurate .
In closing I have mentioned in this thread that
successfully capping College Football is NOT a
math problem and should not be treated as such.
If it was that simple , computer cappers like Sagarin
and Massey et al,.would do far better vs the spread
than the 49 - 50 % I have cited in previous posts ,
and bookmakers would also be able to do better
than making the wrong team the favorite 23 % of
the time. time for me to get back to business.

Good Luck . 







If you can accurately determine " True Line Value "
you WILL win at Sports Betting over the long run.

GL 
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