Posted: 8/31/2018 11:55:05 AM
To Volatilis : You asked in another thread about if
there are any books on establishing line value.
Not to my knowledge , and as I said , I am very
thankful to learn TLV from a prominent Sports Bettor
here in Las Vegas back in the late ' 80's when I was
flying in from Chicago on Friday nights to bet College Football.
I won't say much about it other than this. Most of
the method I used in determining TLV back then has
changed dramatically . This is due to the evolution
of technique and strategy that is applied today vs
what was used 30 years ago. To maintain an edge
vs the Books , bettors must keep up with this .
Some do , most do not. That's why overall books
are able to maintain their advantage over bettors.
Many today , utilize " Power Ratings " in an attempt
to establish value. I do not find this method accurate
enough for my needs. Since I use Kelly , If I bet a
92 % WP wager , I am committing 78 % of my BR.
I have to be much more accurate than what PR's
can offer. The utliization of Kelly forced me to create
the method I use today to determine TLV.
If you consider establishing your own method ,
I highly recommend that you use a strategy based
on " Matchup Analysis " as you will find it to be far
more accurate .
In closing I have mentioned in this thread that
successfully capping College Football is NOT a
math problem and should not be treated as such.
If it was that simple , computer cappers like Sagarin
and Massey et al,.would do far better vs the spread
than the 49 - 50 % I have cited in previous posts ,
and bookmakers would also be able to do better
than making the wrong team the favorite 23 % of
the time. time for me to get back to business.
Good Luck .