agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , There is nothing wrong with betting faves IF you can buy them at the right price. In weeks 1&2, the " gonna Kill em's" tend to bet faves to a level well beyond their value point. This makes for some great opportunities on the other side of the play. It takes discipline not to make a wager if you cannot get the price you need to gain a high win probability on a play. However that discipline will make you more profitable at the end of the season.
A point to ponder , my friend
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , There is nothing wrong with betting faves IF you can buy them at the right price. In weeks 1&2, the " gonna Kill em's" tend to bet faves to a level well beyond their value point. This makes for some great opportunities on the other side of the play. It takes discipline not to make a wager if you cannot get the price you need to gain a high win probability on a play. However that discipline will make you more profitable at the end of the season.
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Fortunately for bettors , Week 1 also provides a challenge for oddsmakers as well .
LH
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Fortunately for bettors , Week 1 also provides a challenge for oddsmakers as well .
I love the first 3-4 weeks, as well as futures like win/loss, conference champions, CFB playoffs, National Championship, and Heisman.
This is the best Clemson team ever, but they're going to need some freshman to step up in the secondary, WR, and and Oline. There's a long way to go before week one, but Clemson's oline needs to show significant improvement by the time the season starts...
Boston College, FSU, South Carolina, Florida, Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Miss St, Michigan/Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Penn St, Miami TCU are a few of the teams that I think will be better than they were in 2017...
The two most improved teams in my opinion are Michigan (only w/ Patterson) and Stanford.
FSU deserves dark horse consideration for ACC championship.
I love the first 3-4 weeks, as well as futures like win/loss, conference champions, CFB playoffs, National Championship, and Heisman.
This is the best Clemson team ever, but they're going to need some freshman to step up in the secondary, WR, and and Oline. There's a long way to go before week one, but Clemson's oline needs to show significant improvement by the time the season starts...
Boston College, FSU, South Carolina, Florida, Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Miss St, Michigan/Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Penn St, Miami TCU are a few of the teams that I think will be better than they were in 2017...
The two most improved teams in my opinion are Michigan (only w/ Patterson) and Stanford.
FSU deserves dark horse consideration for ACC championship.
Posted: Mar. 5, 2018 - 1:15 PM ET "Quote" I'm looking forward to the QB competition at Bama this year.The Tide's Spring Game is on 4 / 21 @ 2:00 pm Eastern .
The only QB competition at Alabama is to see who will back up Tua, and right now Mac Jones is in the lead.
Posted: Mar. 5, 2018 - 1:15 PM ET "Quote" I'm looking forward to the QB competition at Bama this year.The Tide's Spring Game is on 4 / 21 @ 2:00 pm Eastern .
The only QB competition at Alabama is to see who will back up Tua, and right now Mac Jones is in the lead.
Tua should be the starter as he has shown some skill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game. I thought that after the Championship game , Jalen would understand the urgency in stepping up his ability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. That has not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only has he not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer. With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as well as the loss of many defensive starters , an efficient passing game will be a must for the Tide this season.
FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years starting QB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season lose starting jobs as well.
As I stated in another thread , teams vying for a Championship may look somewhat different this season due to personnel as well as net production losses from last year.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Tua should be the starter as he has shown some skill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game. I thought that after the Championship game , Jalen would understand the urgency in stepping up his ability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. That has not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only has he not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer. With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as well as the loss of many defensive starters , an efficient passing game will be a must for the Tide this season.
FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years starting QB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season lose starting jobs as well.
As I stated in another thread , teams vying for a Championship may look somewhat different this season due to personnel as well as net production losses from last year.
Posted: 18 minutes ago "Quote" Tua should be the starter as he has shown someskill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game.I thought that after the Championship game , Jalenwould understand the urgency in stepping up hisability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. Thathas not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only hashe not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer.With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as wellas the loss of many defensive starters , an efficientpassing game will be a must for the Tide this season. FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years startingQB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season losestarting jobs as well.As I stated in another thread , teams vying for aChampionship may look somewhat different thisseason due to personnel as well as net productionlosses from last year.
Quite simply. Hurts doesn't posses the necessary skill-set to play QB at this level.
Posted: 18 minutes ago "Quote" Tua should be the starter as he has shown someskill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game.I thought that after the Championship game , Jalenwould understand the urgency in stepping up hisability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. Thathas not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only hashe not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer.With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as wellas the loss of many defensive starters , an efficientpassing game will be a must for the Tide this season. FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years startingQB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season losestarting jobs as well.As I stated in another thread , teams vying for aChampionship may look somewhat different thisseason due to personnel as well as net productionlosses from last year.
Quite simply. Hurts doesn't posses the necessary skill-set to play QB at this level.
Tua should be the starter as he has shown some skill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game. I thought that after the Championship game , Jalen would understand the urgency in stepping up his ability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. That has not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only has he not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer. With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as well as the loss of many defensive starters , an efficient passing game will be a must for the Tide this season.
FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years starting QB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season lose starting jobs as well.
As I stated in another thread , teams vying for a Championship may look somewhat different this season due to personnel as well as net production losses from last year.
Bryant's performance in Clemson's Spring Game is one of those I was referring to here.He did not look like someone who plays well under the pressure of competition.Hope he figures it out by Fall camp.
mws
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Tua should be the starter as he has shown some skill in grasping the intricasies of the passing game. I thought that after the Championship game , Jalen would understand the urgency in stepping up his ability to read defenses and improve his passing efficiency if he wanted to remain the starter. That has not happened. By his performance in the A day game , not only has he not shown improvement , but actual regression as a passer. With Coordinator , and coaching changes , as well as the loss of many defensive starters , an efficient passing game will be a must for the Tide this season.
FWIW , Alabama was not the only prominent College football program to have last years starting QB struggle in this years Spring game. We might see a couple of other starters from last season lose starting jobs as well.
As I stated in another thread , teams vying for a Championship may look somewhat different this season due to personnel as well as net production losses from last year.
Bryant's performance in Clemson's Spring Game is one of those I was referring to here.He did not look like someone who plays well under the pressure of competition.Hope he figures it out by Fall camp.
Lawrence can do some things that Bryant cant, but I still think Clemson can beat a team like Bama with Bryant at QB. KB had a rough spring game, but it wasnt as bad as people are suggesting... Bryant was seeing the field well, throwing the ball to the right WR on multiple plays. Unfortunately he just overthrew his targets. Now if that starts to happen regularly than there's no way he can start, but even the best QB's have days like that...
Lawrence can do some things that Bryant cant, but I still think Clemson can beat a team like Bama with Bryant at QB. KB had a rough spring game, but it wasnt as bad as people are suggesting... Bryant was seeing the field well, throwing the ball to the right WR on multiple plays. Unfortunately he just overthrew his targets. Now if that starts to happen regularly than there's no way he can start, but even the best QB's have days like that...
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.
1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.
2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.
Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be made available to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wagering purposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhere to it is what really matters.
It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools to quantify projected lines as well as line value to make sound wagering decisions each week.
There is still time to develop skills and methods in these areas prior to week 1.
LH ,
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.
1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.
2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.
Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be made available to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wagering purposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhere to it is what really matters.
It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools to quantify projected lines as well as line value to make sound wagering decisions each week.
There is still time to develop skills and methods in these areas prior to week 1.
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.
1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.
2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.
Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be made available to me either on openers or during the week.
While this is important to know , for wagering purposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhere to it is what really matters.
It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools to quantify projected lines as well as line value to make sound wagering decisions each week.
There is still time to develop skills and methods in these areas prior to week 1.
LH ,
LH , This speaks to my earlier post regarding ' The gonna kill ems " betting up numbers well past their point of value. When you can quantify a value point accurately , you are free to take whatever side of the wager offers you the win probability you are looking for.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.
1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.
2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.
Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be made available to me either on openers or during the week.
While this is important to know , for wagering purposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhere to it is what really matters.
It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools to quantify projected lines as well as line value to make sound wagering decisions each week.
There is still time to develop skills and methods in these areas prior to week 1.
LH ,
LH , This speaks to my earlier post regarding ' The gonna kill ems " betting up numbers well past their point of value. When you can quantify a value point accurately , you are free to take whatever side of the wager offers you the win probability you are looking for.
This years spring games didnt offer the typical amount of insight you can usually gather. A lot of teams sat a lot of their starters, or had some really goofy rules. For example, Stanford, USC, UCLA showed nothing. Alabama didnt have Tua, Michigan was in Paris....
There were a few games I thought were helpful: Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, FSU and South Carolina
This years spring games didnt offer the typical amount of insight you can usually gather. A lot of teams sat a lot of their starters, or had some really goofy rules. For example, Stanford, USC, UCLA showed nothing. Alabama didnt have Tua, Michigan was in Paris....
There were a few games I thought were helpful: Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, FSU and South Carolina
Clemson QB Hunter Johnson has announced that he will be transferring . His destination is unknown at this time. This leaves the QB battle between Kelly Bryant ( who looked awful in their Spring game ) and True Freshman Trevor Lawrence.
Kelly Bryant had better step it up.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Clemson QB Hunter Johnson has announced that he will be transferring . His destination is unknown at this time. This leaves the QB battle between Kelly Bryant ( who looked awful in their Spring game ) and True Freshman Trevor Lawrence.
Clemson QB Hunter Johnson has announced that he will be transferring . His destination is unknown at this time. This leaves the QB battle between Kelly Bryant ( who looked awful in their Spring game ) and True Freshman Trevor Lawrence.
Kelly Bryant had better step it up.
I think Trevor Lawrence ends up starting. Maybe not game 1 since Dabo needs the depth and cannot risk Bryant transferring, but after splitting time in games 1 & 2, I expect Lawrence to pull away and win the job.
Similar situation at Alabama. I don't think Saban names a starter before the season. He also wants the depth at QB. Again, the younger QB could/should pull away and win the job.
Both teams may have run packages for Bryant and Hurts, respectively, if they are in fact beat out.
Definitely similar situations for both big-time programs.
Clemson QB Hunter Johnson has announced that he will be transferring . His destination is unknown at this time. This leaves the QB battle between Kelly Bryant ( who looked awful in their Spring game ) and True Freshman Trevor Lawrence.
Kelly Bryant had better step it up.
I think Trevor Lawrence ends up starting. Maybe not game 1 since Dabo needs the depth and cannot risk Bryant transferring, but after splitting time in games 1 & 2, I expect Lawrence to pull away and win the job.
Similar situation at Alabama. I don't think Saban names a starter before the season. He also wants the depth at QB. Again, the younger QB could/should pull away and win the job.
Both teams may have run packages for Bryant and Hurts, respectively, if they are in fact beat out.
Definitely similar situations for both big-time programs.
I think Trevor Lawrence ends up starting. Maybe not game 1 since Dabo needs the depth and cannot risk Bryant transferring, but after splitting time in games 1 & 2, I expect Lawrence to pull away and win the job.
Similar situation at Alabama. I don't think Saban names a starter before the season. He also wants the depth at QB. Again, the younger QB could/should pull away and win the job.
Both teams may have run packages for Bryant and Hurts, respectively, if they are in fact beat out.
Definitely similar situations for both big-time programs.
I wish the season was here already!
Hang in there Bud , we're almost there .
I think the Clemson and Bama QB situations just might offer us a great wagering opportunity as this drama unfolds. I'll be watching it closely. Right now though ,I'm prepping for GOY's tomorrow
TD , Good to hear from you Bud . Let's get em good this season .
TD
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
I think Trevor Lawrence ends up starting. Maybe not game 1 since Dabo needs the depth and cannot risk Bryant transferring, but after splitting time in games 1 & 2, I expect Lawrence to pull away and win the job.
Similar situation at Alabama. I don't think Saban names a starter before the season. He also wants the depth at QB. Again, the younger QB could/should pull away and win the job.
Both teams may have run packages for Bryant and Hurts, respectively, if they are in fact beat out.
Definitely similar situations for both big-time programs.
I wish the season was here already!
Hang in there Bud , we're almost there .
I think the Clemson and Bama QB situations just might offer us a great wagering opportunity as this drama unfolds. I'll be watching it closely. Right now though ,I'm prepping for GOY's tomorrow
TD , Good to hear from you Bud . Let's get em good this season .
LH , I have a rule where I will not wager on a team with a new HC , O and / or D Coord. , or QB in weeks 1 & 2 so I can get a little " history " on their capability.Also , teams typically do not play quality opponents early so you have to temper your assessment going forward from there with that in mind. The only exception to this is if the change results in a potentially measurable improvement in a team and value is created vs the line on the matchup.
FWIW , A lot of top teams lost a number of quality defensive players to graduation as well as early entrants into the NFL draft. Teams might look just a little different in Week 1 this season.
Good Luck
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
LH , I have a rule where I will not wager on a team with a new HC , O and / or D Coord. , or QB in weeks 1 & 2 so I can get a little " history " on their capability.Also , teams typically do not play quality opponents early so you have to temper your assessment going forward from there with that in mind. The only exception to this is if the change results in a potentially measurable improvement in a team and value is created vs the line on the matchup.
FWIW , A lot of top teams lost a number of quality defensive players to graduation as well as early entrants into the NFL draft. Teams might look just a little different in Week 1 this season.
Wake Forest has suspended QB Kendall Hinton and TE Thomas Cole for the first 3 games of the season. Hinton was projected to start at QB this season. They will be eligible to return vs N. Dame on 11/22.
GLTA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Wake Forest has suspended QB Kendall Hinton and TE Thomas Cole for the first 3 games of the season. Hinton was projected to start at QB this season. They will be eligible to return vs N. Dame on 11/22.
LH , It's important to note that above and beyond normal losses due to graduation , this year thereare also 111 underclassmen who have declared forthe upcoming NFL draft.This means that a number of prominent teams arehighly likely to start slow due to a high percentageof net offensive and / or defensive production lost.Be careful of high priced faves in week 1.
Good point....any notes from spring games stand out to you in particular?
LH , It's important to note that above and beyond normal losses due to graduation , this year thereare also 111 underclassmen who have declared forthe upcoming NFL draft.This means that a number of prominent teams arehighly likely to start slow due to a high percentageof net offensive and / or defensive production lost.Be careful of high priced faves in week 1.
Good point....any notes from spring games stand out to you in particular?
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be madeavailable to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wageringpurposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhereto it is what really matters.It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools toquantify projected lines as well as line value tomake sound wagering decisions each week.There is still time to develop skills and methods inthese areas prior to week 1. LH ,
A good caveat to rule 1 is to not only come up with an estimate of the # the oddsmaker is going to hang, but also try to estimate what THE PUBLIC thinks the line will be. This is a helpful exercise to find value and look at the game through a different lens/perspective.
agreed! and you know I have a rep for backing those HP faves in week 1...will look to take my capping to the next level and not be a chump...I find week 1 to be a huge challenge every year...
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be madeavailable to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wageringpurposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhereto it is what really matters.It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools toquantify projected lines as well as line value tomake sound wagering decisions each week.There is still time to develop skills and methods inthese areas prior to week 1. LH ,
A good caveat to rule 1 is to not only come up with an estimate of the # the oddsmaker is going to hang, but also try to estimate what THE PUBLIC thinks the line will be. This is a helpful exercise to find value and look at the game through a different lens/perspective.
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be madeavailable to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wageringpurposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhereto it is what really matters.It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools toquantify projected lines as well as line value tomake sound wagering decisions each week.There is still time to develop skills and methods inthese areas prior to week 1. LH ,
A good caveat to rule 1 is to not only come up with an estimate of the # the oddsmaker is going to hang, but also try to estimate what THE PUBLIC thinks the line will be. This is a helpful exercise to find value and look at the game through a different lens/perspective.
This is a very important point. In many instances I
need line movement by the public to acquire a
position at the price I need to achieve a WP
of 67 % or better. I tend to look at the price I think
books will open it at, and what the trajectory will be
from there. Many times it will tell me to hold off on
openers because I am highly likely to get my price
( or better ) midweek.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
LH , Each week of the season , before lines go up, I make sure I know two things.1. My estimation of what is the number that an oddsmaker is likely to hang on a matchup that I am interested in wagering on.2. What number do I need on the matchup to insure me of a 70 % win probability on that wager.Item # 1 tells me which games are likely to be madeavailable to me either on openers or during the week. While this is important to know , for wageringpurposes , only Item # 2 and the discipline to adhereto it is what really matters.It all starts with equipping yourself with the tools toquantify projected lines as well as line value tomake sound wagering decisions each week.There is still time to develop skills and methods inthese areas prior to week 1. LH ,
A good caveat to rule 1 is to not only come up with an estimate of the # the oddsmaker is going to hang, but also try to estimate what THE PUBLIC thinks the line will be. This is a helpful exercise to find value and look at the game through a different lens/perspective.
This is a very important point. In many instances I
need line movement by the public to acquire a
position at the price I need to achieve a WP
of 67 % or better. I tend to look at the price I think
books will open it at, and what the trajectory will be
from there. Many times it will tell me to hold off on
openers because I am highly likely to get my price
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