Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI
2012 Playoffs: 0-1, -5 Units
The Week: 4-9-1, -17.85 Units All
Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”
Minor adjustment again today
as yesterday I did not start a playoff tally and the Cards-Braves under loss
was recorded with the regular season. My bad. NBFD.
Tigers -153 (F5), -150 (FG) (Milone / Fister)
Many of us would like to see
the A’s continue a storybook season and go all the way, but I think they are going
to have to pull a three game sweep at home to go any further. Tommy Milone is,
imho, a really poor choice for the start today. West Coast lefties are always
suspect when pitching in the more hitter friendly parks anywhere east of the
coast. If Milone’s road era looks bad already at 4.83, you also better be aware
that it is 5.75 east of the Sierra
Nevada Mountains.
Doug Fister only pitched in two pitcher friendly West Coast parks this year and
both starts came early in the season, but he surrendered only one earned run in
13 innings for an 0.69 era. I also love that 2.77:1 GB/FB ratio Fister combines
with his 3.70:1 K/BB ratio. It is not hard to see why he is sometimes
overlooked and undervalued on the same staff with Justin Verlander, but the
credentials are certainly there. Given the KeyMetric pitching advantage of 76.1/68.6,
and a slight offensive advantage at 32.3/29.7 plus HFA, I expect the Tigers to
romp home with the win fairly easily.
Yankees -157 (F5), -155 (FG) (Sabathia / Hammel)
I can’t compliment Jason
Hammel enough on a fine season after escaping Coors Field for another, though
lesser, hitter’s park. Unfortunately the Orioles best is not up to the
standards of the Yankees best. Sabathia has “been there, done that” and knows
all he needs to know about facing another ace in a playoff format. I expect the
Orioles to see the real Sabathia today. I am well aware the Yankees dropped two
of three Sabathia starts at Baltimore
this year, but the dream has to end sometime soon as luck runs out. The Orioles
played hard and I don’t want to diminish that in any way, but they were helped
greatly by the Rays injuries and the collapses of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, as
well as that incredible 29-9 record in one run games. A fine season, yes,
championship caliber, no.
I may be back with a play on the
Reds / Giants game later, not sure yet and won’t guess at the line anyway.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI
2012 Playoffs: 0-1, -5 Units
The Week: 4-9-1, -17.85 Units All
Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”
Minor adjustment again today
as yesterday I did not start a playoff tally and the Cards-Braves under loss
was recorded with the regular season. My bad. NBFD.
Tigers -153 (F5), -150 (FG) (Milone / Fister)
Many of us would like to see
the A’s continue a storybook season and go all the way, but I think they are going
to have to pull a three game sweep at home to go any further. Tommy Milone is,
imho, a really poor choice for the start today. West Coast lefties are always
suspect when pitching in the more hitter friendly parks anywhere east of the
coast. If Milone’s road era looks bad already at 4.83, you also better be aware
that it is 5.75 east of the Sierra
Nevada Mountains.
Doug Fister only pitched in two pitcher friendly West Coast parks this year and
both starts came early in the season, but he surrendered only one earned run in
13 innings for an 0.69 era. I also love that 2.77:1 GB/FB ratio Fister combines
with his 3.70:1 K/BB ratio. It is not hard to see why he is sometimes
overlooked and undervalued on the same staff with Justin Verlander, but the
credentials are certainly there. Given the KeyMetric pitching advantage of 76.1/68.6,
and a slight offensive advantage at 32.3/29.7 plus HFA, I expect the Tigers to
romp home with the win fairly easily.
Yankees -157 (F5), -155 (FG) (Sabathia / Hammel)
I can’t compliment Jason
Hammel enough on a fine season after escaping Coors Field for another, though
lesser, hitter’s park. Unfortunately the Orioles best is not up to the
standards of the Yankees best. Sabathia has “been there, done that” and knows
all he needs to know about facing another ace in a playoff format. I expect the
Orioles to see the real Sabathia today. I am well aware the Yankees dropped two
of three Sabathia starts at Baltimore
this year, but the dream has to end sometime soon as luck runs out. The Orioles
played hard and I don’t want to diminish that in any way, but they were helped
greatly by the Rays injuries and the collapses of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, as
well as that incredible 29-9 record in one run games. A fine season, yes,
championship caliber, no.
I may be back with a play on the
Reds / Giants game later, not sure yet and won’t guess at the line anyway.
Orioles were 9-9 vs the Yankee's....runs almost dead even...
In 3 starts the Fat Man had a 6.83 ERA vs our Birds....
Pitching in th rain won't be easy for Fat Albert....I'll be yelling at his fat ass all night long...-160 is an insult to our team..If Hammell's OK,this will be a 1 run game...Good luck with that scenario....
Orioles were 9-9 vs the Yankee's....runs almost dead even...
In 3 starts the Fat Man had a 6.83 ERA vs our Birds....
Pitching in th rain won't be easy for Fat Albert....I'll be yelling at his fat ass all night long...-160 is an insult to our team..If Hammell's OK,this will be a 1 run game...Good luck with that scenario....
Shrimp, I know you are a big Orioles homer but I calls em as I sees em. It ain't personal. cjm2008, don't ever wish a guy good luck if you are fading him.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Shrimp, I know you are a big Orioles homer but I calls em as I sees em. It ain't personal. cjm2008, don't ever wish a guy good luck if you are fading him.
If the Orioles were helped by the Blue Jays and Red Sox so were the Yankees...
Both the O's and Yankees were within a game for over a month. Stop downplaying the O's and discrediting what they did when they were pretty much equals with the Yankees all year long.
Where the Yankees are worse the O's are better and vice versa. It all evens out in the end and the Yankees should have lost all 3 CC starts if not for some luck in the only 2 extra inning games teh O's lost all year long with shitty calls going the Yankees way.
Those 2 games have the correct calls and the O's win the division and have the best record in the AL while having a series lead of 11-7 vs the Yanks.
Those are facts.
GL with play. I thnk you are taking the Yankees at a much inflated price. O's series also has incredible value at basically +195
If the Orioles were helped by the Blue Jays and Red Sox so were the Yankees...
Both the O's and Yankees were within a game for over a month. Stop downplaying the O's and discrediting what they did when they were pretty much equals with the Yankees all year long.
Where the Yankees are worse the O's are better and vice versa. It all evens out in the end and the Yankees should have lost all 3 CC starts if not for some luck in the only 2 extra inning games teh O's lost all year long with shitty calls going the Yankees way.
Those 2 games have the correct calls and the O's win the division and have the best record in the AL while having a series lead of 11-7 vs the Yanks.
Those are facts.
GL with play. I thnk you are taking the Yankees at a much inflated price. O's series also has incredible value at basically +195
Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era. I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking. Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game. BOL to you today.
Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era. I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking. Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game. BOL to you today.
Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era. I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking. Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game. BOL to you today.
TB
What you may find interesting is that one of my KeyMetric formulas, although created entirely in a different manner, comes out close to Sagarin's npera. I have no idea why, nor do I now how he creates those numbers, but I find it strange how close to mine they are and mine are a part of one of my best totals formulas. Go figure.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Key - just for the record - I went back to sagarins website and looked at the era for milone and fister and yes you were correct about fister being better in terms of era. I don't look at the era - I look at the rank of the pitcher along with a couple of other data points to come up with a numerical ranking. Rank wise - milone 23 and fister was 44 (lower the better - thus my comment milone was better) - the KEY was we were on the same side regarding Detroit - I avoided the Yankees game. BOL to you today.
TB
What you may find interesting is that one of my KeyMetric formulas, although created entirely in a different manner, comes out close to Sagarin's npera. I have no idea why, nor do I now how he creates those numbers, but I find it strange how close to mine they are and mine are a part of one of my best totals formulas. Go figure.
it is interesting how we come up with a variety of ways to analyze things. There are little nit noids that we come up with - for example, if you go to donbest.com and look at the opening lines for mlb - usually the line will say - 115 or - 170 etc. However, if the line happens to be a + 110 or +135 etc. and it's the away team - the away team won every game this year with the exception of the mets and Phillies the last week or so of the season.
it is interesting how we come up with a variety of ways to analyze things. There are little nit noids that we come up with - for example, if you go to donbest.com and look at the opening lines for mlb - usually the line will say - 115 or - 170 etc. However, if the line happens to be a + 110 or +135 etc. and it's the away team - the away team won every game this year with the exception of the mets and Phillies the last week or so of the season.
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