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Oaklawn Sat 3/16 Price plays

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Oaklawn Sat 3/16 Price plays
AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/15/2019 1:01:32 PM

Looks to be a beautiful day tomorrow and I am playing some local price shots vs California shippers particularly Baffert’s two odds on favs in the features as I believe the break in training caused by the poor track conditions plus training over a bad track period the last month will play a part. Not to mention racing a week later than originally scheduled for many of them and the unplanned ship to Arkansas. I may get blasted by the fast and classy Cal crop as they really tower over these local horses figure and class wise but I stand to make a few nice scores tomorrow if I am on to something. I did include some Cal shippers in some multi race wagers especially in both divisions of the Rebel since i have prices in most legs. Risking around $850 depending on scratches tomrorow. 

Race 1 and early Pick 4    #4 Ludington 8-1ml ran a credible speed and mild fade race in his debut exactly one month ago. Morse is ice cold but is too good of trainer to discount and he may heat up today with some prices. Steady works since last race for this homebred son of up and coming sire Creative Cause. $20 Win and place   $.50 pk 4  1,2,4,6,8/1,3,6,9,10/2/4,5,6  Cost $37.50

Race 2 #10 Tonedaddy 9/2 ml gets my money in this pretty cool 1 and ½ marathon starter allowance race. Distance won’t be a problem and should settle in a perfect stalking trip all the way twice around. Horse should be super fit after going slightly shorter on March 7. $20 Win and place

Race 3  #2 Proverb 6-1ml is my best bet of the day and a single in my early pick 4. Came back and raced ok in 3yr old debut Feb 9 but put in a serious work Sunday. I look for a big improvement and stalk and pounce trip with Rosario on board. $50 Win and place

 

Race 4 #6 All Bizness 10-1ml stretches out and faces some well-meant 3 yr olds in this AOC 62.5k route. Looks like a real race horse and won’t be bet but if he improves in third career start like he did last out then watch out. Could be any type. $20 Win and place

 

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/15/2019 1:02:13 PM

Race 5   #9 Atthepearlygates 15-1ml showed some early zip from the rail in career debut when dismissed at 44-1 in a loaded field with a couple next out winners.  Should get a softer pace on the stretch out and there isn’t much pace on paper. Will be a big price.  $20 Win and place  $1 pk 3   6,9/5,10,12/all Cost $36

Race 6   #10 Tapsolute 20-1ml is a bomb that fits neatly in this AOC 50k mile for older horses. Runs best at Oaklawn mile and if he can get some pace to run at he can close late for it all. $20 Win and place and playing a $5 ex box with 5,10,12 also  Cost $30

Race 7 Grade II Azeri Stakes  Wow- what a great field albeit a short one.  If Elate is right or Midnight Bisou takes to Oaklawn then one of those wins easily. Hoping that doesn’t happen and then its wide open and looking at the pace it appears #6 Shamrock Rose will be stalking #1 Tapa Tapa Tapa or if one of those doesn’t break then the other one should get the kindest of front end trip. I am not playing a win bet but I think one can win with the other fading late so playing a large ex $10 ex 1,6/2,5  Cost $40  and playing a .50 pk4 all/2,8,9/5,7/2,4,5,6  Cost $72

Race 8  The Rebel Stakes Grade II (Division 1) #2 Long Range Teddy 10-1ml would really benefit if he can sit 3 or 4 early behind the cal shippers then try to run by them late. The Cal shippers #8 and #9 will be very short prices and I am hopping that leads to #2 being overlooked. He has good natural race progression and could be sitting on his break out moment. $50 Win and place

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/15/2019 1:02:51 PM

Race 9  The Essex Handicap  #5 Chris and Dave 15-1ml steps up in class but fits against these and should be towards the front early with soft fractions.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and many others have disappointed all their careers. My horse tries hard every race and likes to be there at the end finishing 1 or 2 in half his 40 lifetime starts. Had a great 5 yr old year and no reason to think he can’t keep firing as a 6yr old. $20 Win and place and $10 exacta box 5-7  Cost $20

Race 10  The Rebel Stakes Grade II (Division 2) #2 Laughing Fox 10-1ml may be the best local 3yr old at Oaklawn this year and has improved every start. Let the cat out of the bag last out with a big performance at this same trip. LOVE the fact that there are big names in this race with him and he may be overlooked at the windows. Do not ignore this horse. $50 Win and place $2 tri box 2-4-5-6 Cost $48

Race 11  #10 Firecrow 4-1ml looks like a scary good 1 timer for Ron Moquett. Expensive 2 yr old purchase for a sire known to throw fast young sprinters. Indian Charlie dam also and fast works. If as good as the profile looks he can score first out. $20 win and place  

eddyc PM eddyc
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Posted: 3/16/2019 9:17:52 AM

Hey Atlanta, new to horse racing but just got a question. When you say win/place bet. Do you mean a show bet? So bet for the win to come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd? Thanks 

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/16/2019 12:14:20 PM

A win bet means horse must finish 1st. Place bet means horse must finish 1st or 2nd. And show bet means horse must finish 1st 2nd or 3rd. I normally recommend playing win bets only as place and show bets don’t return much in payouts. However it’s ok to play place bets when playing price horses many price horses can run well but still find a way to just get beat at the wire. 

eddyc PM eddyc
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Posted: 3/16/2019 1:14:04 PM

Thank you for the reply,

so just so that I understand.

when you say “$20 to win and place”. What u mean is to bet $20 on that horse to win first.

 

thank you for the clarification and help.

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/16/2019 1:14:51 PM

Race 6 there were some sratches and the 5 and 12 are out. So doing a 1-2-10 exacta box to replace the 5-10-12 box and using 1-2-10 in the pick three I played. 

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/16/2019 1:16:30 PM

That means I put $20 on horse to win and another $20 on horse to place. So betting  $40 total. 

sundance PM sundance
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Posted: 3/16/2019 3:17:22 PM
Actions speak louder than words! 
sundance PM sundance
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sundance
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Posted: 3/16/2019 6:11:00 PM
Long Range Teddy up just in time! 
BDA11 PM BDA11
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Posted: 3/16/2019 6:19:47 PM

Nice hit on that #2 long range toddyclover

good luck the rest of your day 

 

AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 3/16/2019 9:39:48 PM

Came out profiting $200 but just missed out a nice late pk4 that would have been nice. I’ll be trying again next week with a bigger bankroll. 

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