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Jonnymega's 3% a day

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Jonnymega's 3% a day
cardsfan82 PM cardsfan82
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Posted: 2/14/2011 1:08:36 PM
All over it right with ya!! Good luck tonight!
paul_scholes PM paul_scholes
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Posted: 2/14/2011 4:17:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnymega:

12/14/11


Current Bank $974.20
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  5-6



TODAY'S PLAY:


San Antonio Spurs -8  +101   $29.23


The San Antonio Spurs strong arm their way into New Jersey tonight for a St. Valentine's day showdown that could turn into a massacre. The Spurs are well rested after their starters were able to chill during the team's one-armed behind-kicking of Washington Friday night. The Nets, however, have played 3 games over the last 6 days which included a beat down of their own Friday night, courtesy of the New York Knicks, sans Stoudemire. In that game, NJ gave up a staggering 16 3-pointers (47.1%). That's gonna leave a mark when you're trying to counter with an offense that ranks 29th in scoring (92.8 ppg) and 28th in shooting (44.1%). With the Spurs ranked 6th in the league in scoring (103.6 ppg), 4th in FG% (47.3%) and 4th in 3-point shooting (39.5%), NJ had better guard the perimeter a little better than Friday or it's going to be a long night in Newark. Against the spread, the Nets find themselves with a 26-29 mark while San Antonio is 33-19 with an 18-8-1 clip on the road. Head to head, the Spurs are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups with NJ, and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games at the Prudential Center. Today's play is mos def San Antonio -8 for a +101.







jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/15/2011 2:51:47 PM
12/15/11


Current Bank $1003.72
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  6-6



TODAY'S PLAY:


Chicago Bulls  U183  EV  $30.11


Aww yeah. Chicago's been waiting for this one. After getting punked by Charlotte twice this season, the Bulls are ready for a little payback at the United Center. Expect Chi-town to tighten the screws on an already low scoring Charlotte team that averages only 93.8 points per game, 3rd worst in the NBA. The Bulls, who will bust out with the league's 2nd ranked D (92.3 ppg) tonight, will look to slow down the game's tempo considerably by clamping down defensively on the 'cats. Fortunately for Charlotte, they can hang with the NBA's elite teams. With bigs like Gerald Wallace who is a legitimate double-double threat taking it to the Bull's inside game, Chicago might find scoring on Charlotte equally difficult. Scoping out the trends, we notice the Bobcats are 13-14 on the OU away and 26-29 overall. The Bulls are even more bottom heavy with a 20-32 OU mark that includes a 9-18 record at home. With EV money for a 183 under, the Chicago total is the play tonight.





jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/16/2011 11:00:04 AM
12/16/11


Current Bank $973.61
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  6-7



TODAY'S PLAY:


Orlando Magic  -11.5  -103   $29.21



The Orlando Magic have been stomping on bottom feeders all year long and the Washington Wizards are not about to impede on their parade. The Magic are 8-2 ATS vs. teams under .400% and will be looking to better that record when they host the Wiz at the Amway Center tonight.

Superman center Dwight Howard has 14 double-doubles this year, with 3 of them coming against Washington who are still without Rashard Lewis, sidelined with a sore right knee. On the road, the Wizards are deplorable, going 8-18 ATS and 20-33 overall. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games opposite a team with a losing record. We'll give up the 11.5 points to Washington for -103 and make this our play for the day.





cardsfan82 PM cardsfan82
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Posted: 2/16/2011 11:06:47 AM
I'm on this one too, now I might have to bump my bet though. lol Best of luck tonight man!
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/16/2011 11:33:51 AM
GL cardfan


I wonder how Prime1's lab line is working? He's prolly making more bank than this is.


jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/16/2011 5:32:20 PM

I want to track another version of this using favorites only. The plays will be recorded in the same spreadsheet used to record the other plays, found here -- SPREADSHEET

Same rules and goals as the other system apply except we are playing 10% of the bank on each day's play. The starting bank will be $1000 and the first goal is $1100 in one month.

The first play will be tonight,   Dallas -800  $100.00


fitguy67 PM fitguy67
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Posted: 2/17/2011 5:46:39 AM

Hey everybody, I’m brand new around here…and am super interested in this particular “One-Good-Three-Point-Play-a Day” system  EXACTLY as JonnyMega first configured it, both in ChallengePost (over there it was 24 bets over 30 calendar days, earning 16.12% of startup bank...easily EXCEEDING his very down-to-earth target performance rate—not revealed to us until he moved the system over here--of 10% per calendar month).

 

Jonny, you’re doing GREAT with this the way it is…you want to dabble with risky ten-bangers go ahead…but don’t abandon this baby (this is the real deal, and appears to have the makings of something quite rare…STAYING POWER COMBINED WITH GOOD PERFORMANCE…in the long run way better than a sexy-slugger that sizzles then disappears (which is what is destined for all “systems” consistently invoking 5%-plus plays)…Please,   

 

just because of a less than inspiring (not cold/just choppy) 7-7 start to it after you re-launched in this thread, PLEASE DON’T ABANDON THIS BABY for something more sexy…here’s why…

 

If you look at the OVERALL record of your Three-Point “One-A-Day” Play…here’s what we have, once we “splice” it together…remember the 10,000 start in the first post became $11,612.95…just pro-rate bump the $1000 launch-bank  in this thread up to that level…and we now have

 

*a great 38 plays (22-16, or 58%...all with nice odds that hadn’t eroded much at all from even money), placed one a day over 44 calendar days…

 

*bringing a very nice 16.53% return to our starting bank (the 10k moving to 11,613 over the first “sexy” 15-9 stage at the ChallengePost…but “weathering” the dull 7-7 bit since you relaunched here very nicely…even appreciating a bit to 11,652…

 

*for an OVERALL PERFORMANCE (10,000 becoming 11,612 in stage 1…then after moving and enduring a 7-7 lull…drifting up to its current true level 11,652) of 16.52% in just 44 days…

 

*that’s 137.12% p.annum and, more importantly….that’s 11.27% p.month (what u wanted, dude…and who can not want that, too?)

 

Jonny, whatever you do, please keep the trades (with or without your well-stated rationale) coming but DO NOT CHANGE YOUR SELECTION CRITERIA one iota to adjust to the last two-weeks of “blah” but not bad results…the current selections  are just fine…58% winners will come and go in “spells”…the results can’t always be amazing as they were during stage 1 when you first floated this over at the ChallengePost….

 

Anyhow, my first post has become an impassioned public service plea to not change your 3%-a-day selection mode or system configuration…I’m sure others appreciate it as much as I do, especially now that they see it as 38 plays over 44 days, presented in two stages on two different posts, with performance that exceeds its target.  Keep it coming…(I need the plays to dabble with a bit more in a very conservative staking system that may be a perfect match for it...more on that later, if it pans out.)

 

Glad to be here…and hope I’ve been able to keep Jonny’s “Real Thing” in the market.  Don’t suppose anybody here’s old enough to remember when Coca Cola tried to change it’s formula…lol?

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/17/2011 6:14:18 AM
Don't worry, bro. They plays will keep coming. The favorites plays are just for fun.

Thanks for the kind words.


fitguy67 PM fitguy67
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Posted: 2/17/2011 6:50:06 AM
Cool,

Is the Dallas play our 3%'r for today, the 17th, then as well?

fitguy67 PM fitguy67
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Posted: 2/17/2011 6:51:14 AM
or is that brewin' in another kettle...?

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/17/2011 7:30:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fitguy67:

Cool,

Is the Dallas play our 3%'r for today, the 17th, then as well?





Dallas is NOT the play for today. Sorry for the confusion. That is for another version of this system using only heavy favorites.

Today's play for the 17th will be posted later.



cardsfan82 PM cardsfan82
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Posted: 2/17/2011 10:08:36 AM
Awesome call yesterday!!! Once I looked back at my bet, I had seen I already bet a little extra on this game, so I just let it ride. I sure won't complain about that easy winner though!!!

Glad to see that Dallas won for you too. I see that you said that version will always be heavy picks, just curious what kind of winning percentage you are expecting to get to cover the long odds? Best of luck with both versions! Eager to see tonight's pick.
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/17/2011 2:08:04 PM
12/17/11


Current Bank $1,001.97
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  7-7
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:


San Antonio Spurs +2  -103   $30.06



The San Antonio Spurs round up their rodeo roadie tonight in the Windy City, taking on the spectacular Chicago Bulls, and obviously, this game's not going to be as easy for the Spurs as their previous few. Chicago is a tough, defensive team and has won 14 of the last 15 at the United Center. However, Tony Parker is lethal in the lane (17.3 ppg, 6.7 apg) and Timmay (12.4 points, 9.2 rebounds) along with Manu Ginobli (17.4 ppg) help lift the Spurs to a whopping 103.5 ppg. And look for this Spurs team to have some wind in their sails. San Antone has had 2 days rest going in to this game, not to mention the extended rest periods for the starters during their assault on the cellar-dwellers last week. MVP candidate Derrick Rose is sure to post his usually wicked numbers but with Joakim Noah out and Timmay's low-post threat, not to mention TP's tenacity and ability to finish in the paint, Chicagoland could be in trouble underneath. Further, Noah's stand-in, Kurt Thomas has been fair with 4.8 pts and 5.9 rebounds a game, but San Antonio's 6' 8" C DeJuan Blair has averaged a cool 13.4 points and 11 boards on this road trip. Against the spread, the Bulls are 18-10 and 32-21 overall while the Spurs are 19-8 ATS on the road and 34-19-2 for the season. San Antonio +2 for -103 will be our play for today.




jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/17/2011 2:14:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cardsfan82:

Awesome call yesterday!!! Once I looked back at my bet, I had seen I already bet a little extra on this game, so I just let it ride. I sure won't complain about that easy winner though!!!

Glad to see that Dallas won for you too. I see that you said that version will always be heavy picks, just curious what kind of winning percentage you are expecting to get to cover the long odds? Best of luck with both versions! Eager to see tonight's pick.


Not sure, my friend. It depends, of course, on the plays. But the lines will probably lie in the -600 to -1000 range and I hope to hit in the high 80 percentile. It's too early to tell right now how that will play out.

BTW, today's favorites play is Oakland over North Dakota State. Deets are in the BOOK.





jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/18/2011 11:11:49 AM
02/18/11


Current Bank $971.91
Starting Bank $1,000.00

End of Month Goal  $1,100.00

Overall Record  7-8
BOOK



TODAY'S PLAY:


NJ Devils U5  +103   $29.16


The Hudson River Rivalry rolls on as the New York Rangers take on the New Jersey Devils tonight at the Prudential Center. This will be the 5th meeting between the two teams this season with the under going 3-0-1 in the previous 4. That shouldn't be too surprising considering neither of these can light the lamp for garbage. The Rangers cling to a sub-par 2.71 G/G that is 17th in the NHL while NJ's 2.12 G/G is downright horrifying. And in regards to the man-advantage, NY's PP% of 16.3% is 24th in the NHL opposite NJ's 14%, which is 27th.

With such ugly offensive numbers, one might think the defensive stats would be equally abhorrent, but not so. The Rangers' 2.46 GA/G is a the 6th highest in the league and the Devils' 2.79 GA/G is 15th. Also, the PK percentages for both teams rock with NY killing the penalty 83.8% of the time (8th) and NJ 83.2% (10th). Additionally, for Jersey, the return of defensiveman Anton Volchenkov from his suspension should further toughen the Devil's D.

Between the pipes, NJ goalie "Moose" Hedberg is 11-5-2 with a 2.17 lifetime GAA versus the Rangers while NY G Henrik Lundqvist had gone 3-0-0 with a .067 GAA against the Devils this season before allowing the 3 goals against them in the last game. Finally, NY's OU record on the road is 7-21-2 whle NJ's home OU sits at 10-15-4 and 19-30-7 overall. With a +103 for the under 5, we have our play for the day.





ClubDirt PM ClubDirt
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Posted: 2/18/2011 11:36:14 AM
good luck jonny.  it's rare to find someone who can stick to the 3% per day management system, although that's probably the best way to do it. 
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/18/2011 11:55:22 AM
Forgot to mention that NJ's 2.12 G/G is not only downright horrifying, it's also dead last in the league (30th).


kreatture PM kreatture
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Posted: 2/18/2011 12:39:19 PM

Can't argue with a Devils/Rangers Under play ever.. but do you take into consideration more recent numbers than say, just season totals? The Devils have been playing much better of late and as a result are scoring 2.9 goals/game over their last 20 (2.8 over last 10) and the Rangers are scoring 2.6 over the past 10.

Does this come into play for your analysis?

 

Keep up the good work 

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/18/2011 1:16:42 PM
You're absolutely right. Recent trends are definitely a part of any comprehensive analysis and should never be ignored. Looking at the recent scoring trends here, one notices NJ has scored 29 G/G over their last 10 home games and NY has scored only 17 G in in their last 10 away games.

However, one could choose to discount those home and away trends in favor of the overall trends as you point out. I guess it's all in how you interpret the data. This game is definitely not a lock on the under. But during my capping, I was more inclined to pay these particular numbers more attention.

Thanks for your input, Kreatture. A you know, your opinions are well respected.


kreatture PM kreatture
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Posted: 2/18/2011 2:08:28 PM

I think this fits in more as a play because of the line we're given.

If this line was -110 for the Under 5 it would be unlikely to qualify as a play. I'll often play a line like this just based on the value. Historical trends point to an Under here, even tho recent game play dictates an Over 5. At plus money, it creates the value needed where if you made this wager 100 times you know you would finish ahead.

Under 5, +103   

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/18/2011 3:10:46 PM
Under 5, +103  
kreatture PM kreatture
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Posted: 2/18/2011 10:31:30 PM
SWEEEEET!!! Was an early night for me, happy to see a 1-0 Final when I came home!

Plus Money, Plus Money, Plus Money.. Oh Yeah!

I don't follow other people very often, but I'm happy to have made this play tonight and cashed it! I should have added it to my thread, LoL

Keep your head down low and stay focused. 
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 2/18/2011 11:15:45 PM
Congrats! 
cardsfan82 PM cardsfan82
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Posted: 2/19/2011 1:18:29 AM
Way to go tonight man! I blindly followed and you surely led me to the promised land! Glad to see your finding some hockey bets with basketball off. Good luck tomorrow as well!
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