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Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 3 of 41 «  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*
smitler PM smitler
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Posted: 10/14/2010 4:33:24 PM
dj_d China is gonna own your behind too someday.
Good luck. I'm just messin with ya.
smitler PM smitler
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Posted: 10/14/2010 4:34:13 PM
Uh oh. wrong user name.
dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/14/2010 4:41:47 PM
 Can we keep this thread to pick related discussion please? If you want to offer some insight or advice, go ahead. You want to say whats up and let me know you're tailing, that's fine. But enough of this bullshit, it just clutters the thread. I don't care if you can't make the plays, not my problem. I post them before they start and with a line and unit, that's all you need.
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 10/14/2010 8:13:21 PM
keep up the excellent work DJ.

you betting on the MLB tomorrow?
nuggetmonster PM nuggetmonster
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Posted: 10/14/2010 10:06:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

 Can we keep this thread to pick related discussion please? If you want to offer some insight or advice, go ahead. You want to say whats up and let me know you're tailing, that's fine. But enough of this bullshit, it just clutters the thread. I don't care if you can't make the plays, not my problem. I post them before they start and with a line and unit, that's all you need.


I CAN DIGG IT
dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/14/2010 10:48:38 PM
Bad results... I'm not worried though, we'll get it back!

Made a small parlay with Minny/Dallas/Richards/Florida that might make up for it HERE.
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 10/14/2010 11:08:40 PM
nice dj! you got faith in that parlay, you think florida can win?? :)
SKiLLsSoLoN PM SKiLLsSoLoN
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Posted: 10/14/2010 11:17:01 PM
Keep up the good work, I might have to trail you too. I hate you posted that parlay after the game went live :P
dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/14/2010 11:58:37 PM
If you guys want a GREAT example of edges, take a look at that ticket I posted with my provincial sports lottery. Everyone knows these things to be a huge ripoff because it's mandatory parlays and the vig is always at least 50 cents.

Still, that doesn't mean you can't find value. If you look at the prices I got for each team vs. the closing prices on Pinny (plus 5 cents due to the vig), you can calculate an edge.

OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0...................... 2.06....................-2.8%*
Richards 2.1...................2.30....................-8.6%*
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%

*The reason we accept negative edges is because they are correlated where the Hockey Skater has historically been proven to hit at a clip of 55%+ if his team wins.  Therefore we can take the win probability of Dallas (48.6%) and multiply it by 55% instead of 43.5% which is the actual win probability for Richards in tonight's situation vs. Datsyuk.  To figure out the correlated probability, we factor Dallas' win prob which is 48.6% with 55% and we get 26.4% which correlates to a 3.79 (+279) payout. OLG is offering the pair at 4.2 (Dallas @ 2 x Richards @ 2.1). Therefore, we divide 4.2 by 3.79 (-1) = +10.82%

So let's re-arrange our chart:

OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0/Richards 2.1... 3.79....................+10.82
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%

Do the same calculations for the above and the parlay ends up with a 46.04% edge.

Using Kelly Criterion (BR:5k Div: 10), suggested bet size is $11.

When we have different markets (OLG vs. offshore/Vegas), the wagering of edges can be systematic. We find weaknesses and we expose. Every edge, every day, every month, all year, every year.
kreatture PM kreatture
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Posted: 10/15/2010 12:16:06 AM
kreatture PM kreatture
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Posted: 10/15/2010 12:21:06 AM
How come you picked Calgary in the Ultimate Race tonight, but Florida on the Pro-Line?

Nice cash on the Pro-Line
dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/15/2010 12:31:50 AM
- Because on Proline, Florida was a 30.9% edge. I thought Calgary was probably going to win, afterall, they had a 56.4% win prob and were at home to Florida.

- In general, on the Streak Survivor/Ultimate Race -- I blindly hammer favourites because they have a higher probability of winning.

- If you miss one day, it's over for the Ultimate Race (I missed Tuesday + Wednesday) so now I don't care if I did care at all to begin with.

- The prizes aren't worth the time investment.

- "Free plays" are too easy to just click away... In other words, if I don't post it, I haven't played it -- If I haven't backed it with my own money, neither should you.

- As a personal note, I should get more serious about them. It's always nice to have good records posted everywhere. But in that case, I would start a new account all over again. I'm a perfectionist at times so if I was trying to be perfect, I would go all out.
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 10/15/2010 6:06:25 AM
got any picks for today? :)
dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:13:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:


Record: 8-3-0
Bankroll: $5991.80
Wagered: $1691.32
Returned: $2683.12
Net: +$991.80
ROI: 58.64%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _


Blues [-104] 2% -119.84 to win 115.23 
Flyers -1.5 [+175] 2% -119.84 to win 209.72 


Record: 8-5-0
Bankroll: $5752.12
Wagered: $1931
Returned: $2683.12
Net: +$752.12
ROI: 38.95%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Avalanche [+133] 3% -172.56 to win 229.5
Blue Jackets [-101] 3% -172.56 to win 170.85
Canucks [+103] 2% -115.04 to win 119.49

Brugge [+123] 2% -115.04 to win 141.5
Eindhoven [+121] 2% -115.04 to win 139.2
Dublin [+120] 2% -115.04 to win 138.05
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:25:49 PM

What leagues for Eindhoven and Dublin?

Found Brugge, can't find the above 2 though

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:32:41 PM

Oh well, looks like Eindhoven & Dublin aren't available on my books.

Took the other 4 though. Hopefully the 2 I couldn't take lose and the rest win

dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:37:33 PM
I know I said I was going to post the leagues but then I screwed up trying to format it nicely and it took me off this page so I lost what I had written... Now I'm mad at naming the leagues so I won't be doing it. Like I said, I lay the line and unit for each play, the rest is up to you.

But for the record, Dublin is in the Ireland Premier and Eindhoven is in Holland's First Division.
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:38:22 PM
Thanks
metslider PM metslider
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:43:21 PM
I cant take the footy but I still hope you win them all
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:54:53 PM

bet365.com has every soccer game imaginable

Funny as hell, just called my betUS account manager and asked why they don't have the lines on certain soccer games.  He told me about bet365.com

"I could lose my job for this, go to.... No. I'm not doing it. "

Pause for about 5 seconds, then suddenly in a whisper voice "bet365.com" and he quickly hang up on me

Sweet

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:55:49 PM
15 Oct 19:45 1/4 19/4 12/1
15 Oct 19:45

 

 

DJ, is this the dublin game?

smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 1:56:16 PM

K that didn't work.

UCD v Dundalk

That it?

dj_destroyer PM dj_destroyer
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Posted: 10/15/2010 2:01:44 PM
Yup, that's it.

Seems as if the line has dropped to +113 on Pinny which made me look at my other plays and the following lines have moved in our favour:

Blue Jackets -101 --> -108
Brugge +123 --> +117
Dublin +120 --> +113

Yes please! I'll take free money where I can!
aerojackel PM aerojackel
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Posted: 10/15/2010 2:04:13 PM
GL Today - all plays look strong
smdio PM smdio
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Posted: 10/15/2010 2:26:53 PM

Actually bet365.com doesn't accept US customers. 

Sigh.

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