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NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 7 of 11 «  5 6 7 8 9   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays
tommymon PM tommymon
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quote#151
Posted: 11/22/2009 10:52:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dsiu79:

Let's Refresh this a little, if anyone is still interested in betting this 2 team parlay in college football, i had found a website that still does it.  Let me know if you are interested?  Send me a PM and i can refer you to that website.



Jmon,  I was refering to the above post.  Not sure if he actually know of a site or not.  Thanks
batman318 PM batman318
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quote#152
Posted: 11/23/2009 2:40:03 PM

I tested this system with tiny parlays on NFL yesterday and it was awesome.  perfect 3-0 in 1H and 1-0 in 2H plays as these were lines that i saw that fit the criteria (over 33% differential).

1)  1H Pit -7 ov 20 pts

2)  1H Wash +7 un 20.5 pts

3)  1H Cin -6.5 ov 17.5 pts (close one as oak had to score td at 2min warning)

4)   2H Wash +7 un 19.5 pts

Unfortunately there were no full game lines that fit the criteria.  This definitely gives players a huge advantage over the house.  Thurs Dal -13.5 and o/u 40.5 is looking very tempting right now, but don't have the 1H lines yet.

JMon PM JMon
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quote#153
Posted: 11/23/2009 3:34:09 PM
Tommy...I think he did find one. You may want to get in touch with him.  Batman...that's cool the system hit for NFL.  Are the 33% qualified plays allowed in online books.  I do know some allow 30% plays.
batman318 PM batman318
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quote#154
Posted: 11/23/2009 4:28:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JMon:

Tommy...I think he did find one. You may want to get in touch with him.  Batman...that's cool the system hit for NFL.  Are the 33% qualified plays allowed in online books.  I do know some allow 30% plays.

Jmon - I have 2 offshore accts and I've noticed that they allow parlays in the low 30% differentials.  I believe the cutoff is around 35%, and anything 40%+ is definitely blocked.  For one of my sites, it seems like they put on the block Thurs night/Fri morning as soon as the totals for the Sat college games come out.  That's how I was able to put on the Boise St. 1H parlay in, which was a 42% diff.  I'm guessing all sites are different so you can test your site's limits to see if there are any loopholes you can use to your advantage.

I'm guessing that since I can only play 30-35% diffs, I won't be hitting these NFL ones for long and eventually I'll lose some (don't you only play 40%+?).  I think in long run, I'll come out ahead.  The Cin -14 o/u 38.5 game on Sunday also qualifies for me and my site lets me play it.  Maybe they don't block for the NFL?

JMon PM JMon
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quote#155
Posted: 11/23/2009 4:43:54 PM

Interesting...yes I only play 40%+ in NCAAF.  I have never tried in NFL, but maybe 30%+ would be a good figure for the NFL. 

tommymon PM tommymon
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quote#156
Posted: 11/24/2009 4:20:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by batman318:

Jmon - I have 2 offshore accts and I've noticed that they allow parlays in the low 30% differentials.  I believe the cutoff is around 35%, and anything 40%+ is definitely blocked.  For one of my sites, it seems like they put on the block Thurs night/Fri morning as soon as the totals for the Sat college games come out.  That's how I was able to put on the Boise St. 1H parlay in, which was a 42% diff.  I'm guessing all sites are different so you can test your site's limits to see if there are any loopholes you can use to your advantage.

I'm guessing that since I can only play 30-35% diffs, I won't be hitting these NFL ones for long and eventually I'll lose some (don't you only play 40%+?).  I think in long run, I'll come out ahead.  The Cin -14 o/u 38.5 game on Sunday also qualifies for me and my site lets me play it.  Maybe they don't block for the NFL?

Batman, can you send me which offshore they are, please.  I will try to friend you.  thanks!

batman318 PM batman318
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quote#157
Posted: 11/25/2009 8:02:16 PM

Guys, I just put in the parlays for tomorrow's NFL 1H Dal -7.5 ov 20 pts at 37.5% diff (I also played full game at -13.5 and 40 pts for lower 33.8%).  I don't think sites block for NFL (for some reason).  Test with your sites to see if it's just possible to place them (if you can't, you will get an error msg before you confirm.)

One of my sites allowed me to place the Texas game at -21 ov 62.5 pts for a 33.6% diff.  The other site blocked it.  My guess is that the 1H lines would be close to 40% on that game.

 

Merlin702 PM Merlin702
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quote#158
Posted: 11/26/2009 1:07:00 AM

Batman,

I put in the same parlays as you with my local, it seems the cutoff is right around 27% . Rare  to get a play  on a high % Texas game, maybe cause it's a holiday! There were 4 plays for NFL 1H lines in week 11 over 30%....all won! My local does'nt let me play these in college so i am focusing on the NFL .

JMon PM JMon
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quote#159
Posted: 11/26/2009 7:04:28 PM

Fellas been testing this system in NBA the last 3 days for shits and giggles. Seems online books allow this correlated bet in NBA.  Been running 4%+ plays and so far 6-4 +160.00.  Highest I've seen is 7% which is 1-1, (4%) 3-1, (5%) 1-0 and (6%) 1-2.  Two of the losses were decided by 1 pt and 1/2 pt!   Maybe just a fluke and needs to be back testing but could be very promising especially when NCAAB totals start coming out.

kevin2565 PM kevin2565
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quote#160
Posted: 11/26/2009 10:52:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

Fellas been testing this system in NBA the last 3 days for shits and giggles. Seems online books allow this correlated bet in NBA.  Been running 4%+ plays and so far 6-4 +160.00.  Highest I've seen is 7% which is 1-1, (4%) 3-1, (5%) 1-0 and (6%) 1-2.  Two of the losses were decided by 1 pt and 1/2 pt!   Maybe just a fluke and needs to be back testing but could be very promising especially when NCAAB totals start coming out.



Thanks Jmon I was wondering if it could be used in BB. Looking forward to seeing the results. Keep us posted
hoop121 PM hoop121
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quote#161
Posted: 11/26/2009 11:42:21 PM
0-3 tonight on the 1H, 2H, and game in college football. I hope the rest of the weekend gets better cause I am sooooo close to my settle amount and tonight hurt me pretty bad.
gentruchi PM gentruchi
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quote#162
Posted: 11/27/2009 8:17:19 PM
I don't know why some books refuse to take this kind of parlays, we actually betting on a 50% chance of winning against -125 odds, so guess what....the house has advantage again.... the good thing is that it's been showing some profit (around 77% on my plays) but i'm afraid that sooner or later the numbers will drop down....i hope we all can take advantage while it last....specially with the college season coming to an end. So we won't see this lines this often anymore..

Good luck everyone, and remember it's all about the money!!
JMon PM JMon
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quote#163
Posted: 11/27/2009 10:14:21 PM
gentruchi..I guess I'm confused when you say -125 odds. Parlays are 100:260 and a loss is 100:100. There is no vig in this type of bet. The odds are in our favor when making this type of bet as to why books don't allow them. From what I have read this system has been profitable over 3 seasons.
gentruchi PM gentruchi
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quote#164
Posted: 11/27/2009 11:11:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

gentruchi..I guess I'm confused when you say -125 odds. Parlays are 100:260 and a loss is 100:100. There is no vig in this type of bet. The odds are in our favor when making this type of bet as to why books don't allow them. From what I have read this system has been profitable over 3 seasons.


Alright here's the explanation:

You make 2 bets $100 each for a total of $200.

In the best scenario you win 1 of 2 parlays (there's no chance to cash both) to win $260 plus your $100 of your original bet thats $360,but remember you're losing 1 of your tickets so that's $360 - $100= $260.

You ended only with $360 (the cashed ticket), so you made a bet of $200 to Win $160, that's 80% or -125. Anyways i can see a profit as long as this keeps going the way it is now, and other thing i've seen is that those timese when you loose, it's in the very las minute, so you need some crazy situations to let your bet away.

Good luck everyone, and remember... it's all about the money.

kkirby99 PM kkirby99
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quote#165
Posted: 11/27/2009 11:47:46 PM

jmon, doesn't work in basketball. I've looked at it before. One reason this system works is that in football you score points in groups. There are less combinations of numbers that beat you.

gentruchi, the system hits over 65%, at least that's been my tracking for two full years now. This year before this week it's 103-46-11 for only the 1st halves. That's all I play anymore. This week so far starting with W. Mich. is 6-2.

JMon PM JMon
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quote#166
Posted: 11/30/2009 12:41:48 AM

gentrchui

Kirby...one week has been good, long run perhaps not. Systems mimick trends!

This system went 3-0 in NBA tonight. Plays went 11-6 64.7% starting Tuesday 11/24/09.  I can document the plays if needed. Again this is less than a week of plays so hardly significant.  But, perhaps a start.

I only tracked 4%+ plays, didn't round up (meaning 3.8 is not a play) and ONLY with opening lines/full game.  Lines in B-ball are ruthless..move fast, therefore closing line plays may vary significantly in comparison.

7% 3-1

6% 1-2

5% 2-2

4% 5-1

 

 

 

kkirby99 PM kkirby99
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quote#167
Posted: 11/30/2009 12:45:45 PM
jmon, I started the task of looking at BBall for last season using 13 pt. spreads with any total. I went thru the first month and a half of data for college and pros and the four combinations were almost exactly 25% for each. The sample size was about 130 games and I came to the conclusion that it wasn't going to work for BBall. The result that actually came in most often (by a whisker) was the Favorite to the under.
batman318 PM batman318
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quote#168
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:09:04 PM

Well, for me at least, this system performed poorly this week.

1)  1H Dal -7.5 o/u 20  - loss

2)  2H Dal -7 o/u 17.5 - win

3)  Game Dal -13.5 o/u 40  - loss

4)  1H Cin -7.5 o/u 19.5  - loss

5)  Game Cin -13 o/u 39  - win

6)  1H Texas -13 o/u 31.5  - loss

7)  Game Texas -21 o/u 62.5  - loss

2 for 7 is terrible.  I'm not sure if this system works well for the NFL.  Both my offshores NEVER block for the NFL so I'm guessing they know this system doesn't give an advantage to players.  Maybe the huge difference in talent level of college teams make this a better fit for NCAAF games.  Gonna try another week or two and see what happens.

kevin2565 PM kevin2565
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quote#169
Posted: 11/30/2009 4:26:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by batman318:

Well, for me at least, this system performed poorly this week.

1)  1H Dal -7.5 o/u 20  - loss

2)  2H Dal -7 o/u 17.5 - win

3)  Game Dal -13.5 o/u 40  - loss

4)  1H Cin -7.5 o/u 19.5  - loss

5)  Game Cin -13 o/u 39  - win

6)  1H Texas -13 o/u 31.5  - loss

7)  Game Texas -21 o/u 62.5  - loss

2 for 7 is terrible.  I'm not sure if this system works well for the NFL.  Both my offshores NEVER block for the NFL so I'm guessing they know this system doesn't give an advantage to players.  Maybe the huge difference in talent level of college teams make this a better fit for NCAAF games.  Gonna try another week or two and see what happens.



no it doesnt work great in the nfl and there wont a lot of games in the nfl. I am just going to wait till college starts up next year.
kkirby99 PM kkirby99
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quote#170
Posted: 11/30/2009 6:34:22 PM

batman, just play first halves. Forget about 2H and full games. System was 15-6-2 this week including 4-2 in pros starting Thanksgiving.

Cowboys L

Packers  W

Vikings W

Bengals L

Chargers W

Falcons W

batman318 PM batman318
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quote#171
Posted: 12/1/2009 8:37:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kkirby99:

batman, just play first halves. Forget about 2H and full games. System was 15-6-2 this week including 4-2 in pros starting Thanksgiving.

Cowboys L

Packers  W

Vikings W

Bengals L

Chargers W

Falcons W

Kirby, what minimum percentage differential do you play?  30%?  People on this thread were talking about playing only 35% and higher (some only play 40%+) to make the system more effective.  When I went thru the NFL lines this past week, I only found the Cle/Cinn game to fit.

 

JMon PM JMon
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quote#172
Posted: 12/3/2009 12:31:01 AM
Update in NBA...3-0 tonight. 5-2 week-to-date. 16-8 YTD  66.6% +960.00 starting 11/24/09
kkirby99 PM kkirby99
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quote#173
Posted: 12/6/2009 12:41:39 PM

batman, I use 7 pts. as the minimum spread for college and pro games. That requires the favorite to score twice to beat you and I use 28 as the upper limit as the total unless it is more than a 7 pt. spread and then I've gone to 35 totals as the upper limit (those totals only show up in college games). Both college and pro have hit at just over 69% for the year with those parameters for the FIRST HALF only.

This season college is 117-51-13 and pros are 23-10-3 using those parameters. You have to have discipline and bet them all. You can't pick and choose because you never know which ones will come in.

powerade PM powerade
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quote#174
Posted: 12/7/2009 4:55:44 PM
You do realize the system is a mathematical advantage so betting it in basketball has absolutely zero value
batman318 PM batman318
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quote#175
Posted: 12/7/2009 5:54:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kkirby99:

batman, I use 7 pts. as the minimum spread for college and pro games. That requires the favorite to score twice to beat you and I use 28 as the upper limit as the total unless it is more than a 7 pt. spread and then I've gone to 35 totals as the upper limit (those totals only show up in college games). Both college and pro have hit at just over 69% for the year with those parameters for the FIRST HALF only.

This season college is 117-51-13 and pros are 23-10-3 using those parameters. You have to have discipline and bet them all. You can't pick and choose because you never know which ones will come in.

Kirby, thanks for your advice on playing the first halves.  I played the Det/Cin and SD/Cle first half games and they both hit.  I got them both at 7 spread and 21 total with a slight difference in the juice.  I didn't get in on the Oak/Pitt game since the line came out early Sunday morning, but I think that game would have hit also on the dog/under parlay.   If you say your limit is 7 spread and 28 total, then your minimum threshold is 25%.  I guess I'll keep trying until the end of the NFL season and see how it goes.  Any reason you don't play the entire game and just first halves?

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