Posted: 8/18/2012 10:12:40 AM
cross it off my bucket list I made it to The Spa
little different strategy gonna play it conservatively as my filly has never been to the races and I want to limit the risk. one unit will be divided to 0.25 to W, 0.25 to P, and 0.50 to S when the odds are in agreement. if we think a fav is legit and price acceptable then WP only. little four horse tri boxes as well unless an odds on fav is highly likely to run first or second and kill the tri. playing the late P4.
yes i realize this type of wagering limits the upside.
some I am considering in numeric order not preference (yes I realize who is the likely fav and why). i don't like to post 4 numbers and then after the fact claim i hit a race. these are for debate among the others.
race 1 - shitty race might pass but gun to my head 5, 7, 8 (minimal value)
race 2 - 5 6 7 14 15 (if 14 or 15 sneak in off AE)
race 3 - pass. impossible to cap these it's a lottery ticket
race 4 - 3 4 6
race 5 - might pass. expect 3 to be a terrible fav but could win since they all suck.
race 6 - pass. field of 14 in an N2L on the lawn. eight of them look just like each other. not my type of race. maybe play a crazy tribox as a lottery ticket.
race 7 - 5 and 7. mcclaughlin's horse one of the favs but seems fishy to me. the horse from Parx has the figs but i am a little suspicious.
race 8 - 1 2 5 11 (real toughie here big field)
race 9 - 1 2 9
race 10 - 1 3 5 6. the Alabama the obvious favs based on speed figs i feel might regress with added distance whereas i see the 1 and 5 potentially improving with added ground. can't decide yet
race 11 - they all are very iffy but i gotta decide on something if I am playing the P4. so 5 and 1A. hoping 1A gets in could have a little value