not a terrible week record wise but a bad week
with decision making missing out on some underdogs getting too many
points. live and learn. but some interesting games this week. i'm not
sure i've changed my mind on anything but there are definitely some
questions that will need to be answered in the next couple of weeks. in
the meantime, for week two, let's see if there are any overreactions to
what happened in week one.
i'm not using pinnacle
anymore. they don't have all the games up on tuesday, unless i'm missing
something. i'll use 5dimes instead.
TB @ Carolina -6.5
this should be an interesting game. my opinion of carolina hasn't
changed. i think they are a very good team as long as newton is healthy.
he didn't play well last week but that doesn't mean he isn't healthy.
carolina did fairly well losing by 3 to the rams. statistically, they
played about even. turnovers were a problem. this should be easier.
carolina is clearly the better team. their defense is much better than
TB's. at home, they should win easily. however, and i forgot this about
last year, i'm the worst at picking TB games. i thought for sure they'd
score at will against SF. they moved the ball well, as expected but
terrible red zone play and turnovers killed them. their defense was a
little better than expected but still isn't good. in any case, turnovers
could decide this one and expect TB to be better but as long as newton
is ok, carolina should be fine here. i probably won't bet it as
thursday nights are bad for me and TB is bad for me, but i'll be
surprised if TB keeps it withing 3 absent some issue with newton, which
is possible. i'll say 6. it's 6.5 that's a reasonable line. not
really tempted by it even if it wasn't a thursday game.
Indy
@ Tennessee -3 well, both of these teams performed to my expectations
last week. i'm one of the few who like TN this season and think they
could win the division or go to the playoffs if luck was around. and
they obviously did well last week. the win doesn't surprise me at all.
not sure how they won by that many though. in any case, this could be a
good, well rounded team with a very good defense. they need to win
this one though to be a serious playoff team. and we said indy will be
tough for any team even without luck. they fought hard and stayed with
the chargers until the end. they put a lot of yards up and executed
their plan well. unless they jus run out of steam at some point, they
can be in every game. hat being said, i have TN as the better team at
home while indy goes from a tough OT game on the west coast to playing a
division rival on the road. better team and sitaution for TN. i'll
say 4.5 here. only 3. i'm not surprised TN isn't getting credit yet.
i'm not sure the chargers are 4 points better than TN with their
injuries right now. lean to TN.
Chargers @ Lions +2.5
chargers actually did better than i thought on offense last week and
easily could have covered. with their banged up line, they ran well and
rivers had a good game. but, the defense did worse than i thought. 376
yards at home against a team with a backup QB isn't ideal. how are
they going to be on the road. i think detroit has talent and can
score. if the chargers offense has issues with their OL and the defense
plays fairly poorly again, they lose this game. detroit had the second
biggest meltdown last week against a bad AZ team. they did the same
thing in week one last season. but, they came back and played well the
next two games last season so maybe they'll do the same in 2019. this
will be a tough game but one they can win at home if they pressure
rivers. their offense should be fine. i'll say chargers -3. looks like
it's 2.5/3 now. that's about right. i'll consider the home dog. these
short road favorites are not a good bet despite last week. i'd prefer
three though.
not a terrible week record wise but a bad week
with decision making missing out on some underdogs getting too many
points. live and learn. but some interesting games this week. i'm not
sure i've changed my mind on anything but there are definitely some
questions that will need to be answered in the next couple of weeks. in
the meantime, for week two, let's see if there are any overreactions to
what happened in week one.
i'm not using pinnacle
anymore. they don't have all the games up on tuesday, unless i'm missing
something. i'll use 5dimes instead.
TB @ Carolina -6.5
this should be an interesting game. my opinion of carolina hasn't
changed. i think they are a very good team as long as newton is healthy.
he didn't play well last week but that doesn't mean he isn't healthy.
carolina did fairly well losing by 3 to the rams. statistically, they
played about even. turnovers were a problem. this should be easier.
carolina is clearly the better team. their defense is much better than
TB's. at home, they should win easily. however, and i forgot this about
last year, i'm the worst at picking TB games. i thought for sure they'd
score at will against SF. they moved the ball well, as expected but
terrible red zone play and turnovers killed them. their defense was a
little better than expected but still isn't good. in any case, turnovers
could decide this one and expect TB to be better but as long as newton
is ok, carolina should be fine here. i probably won't bet it as
thursday nights are bad for me and TB is bad for me, but i'll be
surprised if TB keeps it withing 3 absent some issue with newton, which
is possible. i'll say 6. it's 6.5 that's a reasonable line. not
really tempted by it even if it wasn't a thursday game.
Indy
@ Tennessee -3 well, both of these teams performed to my expectations
last week. i'm one of the few who like TN this season and think they
could win the division or go to the playoffs if luck was around. and
they obviously did well last week. the win doesn't surprise me at all.
not sure how they won by that many though. in any case, this could be a
good, well rounded team with a very good defense. they need to win
this one though to be a serious playoff team. and we said indy will be
tough for any team even without luck. they fought hard and stayed with
the chargers until the end. they put a lot of yards up and executed
their plan well. unless they jus run out of steam at some point, they
can be in every game. hat being said, i have TN as the better team at
home while indy goes from a tough OT game on the west coast to playing a
division rival on the road. better team and sitaution for TN. i'll
say 4.5 here. only 3. i'm not surprised TN isn't getting credit yet.
i'm not sure the chargers are 4 points better than TN with their
injuries right now. lean to TN.
Chargers @ Lions +2.5
chargers actually did better than i thought on offense last week and
easily could have covered. with their banged up line, they ran well and
rivers had a good game. but, the defense did worse than i thought. 376
yards at home against a team with a backup QB isn't ideal. how are
they going to be on the road. i think detroit has talent and can
score. if the chargers offense has issues with their OL and the defense
plays fairly poorly again, they lose this game. detroit had the second
biggest meltdown last week against a bad AZ team. they did the same
thing in week one last season. but, they came back and played well the
next two games last season so maybe they'll do the same in 2019. this
will be a tough game but one they can win at home if they pressure
rivers. their offense should be fine. i'll say chargers -3. looks like
it's 2.5/3 now. that's about right. i'll consider the home dog. these
short road favorites are not a good bet despite last week. i'd prefer
three though.
Buffalo @ NYG +2 both of these teams played to expectations as well. we figured buffalo would have a good defense and bad offense but that they might be better than the jets right now. i'd say all that is true. buffalo had the much better game statistically and probably wins fairly easily without the turnovers. the giants are just horrible any way you look at it. but do you want to bet the bills to win two games in a row on the road. the giants have a running game and manning will have a decent game once or twice before they retire him. their defense is bad but it won't need to be that good here at home. i like buffalo quite a bit better but i don't trust them to win a second consecutive road game with a highly questionable QB. i'll guess even. well, buffalo is -2. not much of a difference. no real opinion yet. buffalo should win but do you trust them? do the giants have the ability to beat a team with some talent, at least on defense?
AZ @ Shrimp -13.5 i think shrimp already disclosed this line for the second week in a row. i'm not even going to look at the shrimp stats from last week. not relevant. and somehow the shrimps got the easiest schedule possible to start the season. so, they should win this because AZ has serious issues and going on the road with a rookie QB who looked bad a lot last week will be a big problem, but that doesn't mean this shrimp team is any good. we'll just have to wait and see on that. as for AZ, a nice comeback last week, but that was at home against a poorly coached team. the only question is whether they can keep it close. i don't like this defense at all so i doubt it. i thought the line was 15 before. it's 13.5 now. i guess that's fair, but i would never take the shrimp at that number. AZ is bad but they aren't miami. AZ or nothing here.
Buffalo @ NYG +2 both of these teams played to expectations as well. we figured buffalo would have a good defense and bad offense but that they might be better than the jets right now. i'd say all that is true. buffalo had the much better game statistically and probably wins fairly easily without the turnovers. the giants are just horrible any way you look at it. but do you want to bet the bills to win two games in a row on the road. the giants have a running game and manning will have a decent game once or twice before they retire him. their defense is bad but it won't need to be that good here at home. i like buffalo quite a bit better but i don't trust them to win a second consecutive road game with a highly questionable QB. i'll guess even. well, buffalo is -2. not much of a difference. no real opinion yet. buffalo should win but do you trust them? do the giants have the ability to beat a team with some talent, at least on defense?
AZ @ Shrimp -13.5 i think shrimp already disclosed this line for the second week in a row. i'm not even going to look at the shrimp stats from last week. not relevant. and somehow the shrimps got the easiest schedule possible to start the season. so, they should win this because AZ has serious issues and going on the road with a rookie QB who looked bad a lot last week will be a big problem, but that doesn't mean this shrimp team is any good. we'll just have to wait and see on that. as for AZ, a nice comeback last week, but that was at home against a poorly coached team. the only question is whether they can keep it close. i don't like this defense at all so i doubt it. i thought the line was 15 before. it's 13.5 now. i guess that's fair, but i would never take the shrimp at that number. AZ is bad but they aren't miami. AZ or nothing here.
NE @ Miami +19 not even going to spend time on this one. NE can name the score. who is going to bet miami here? they are unbettable until further notice. i'll say 17.5. it's 19. sure, why not. i doubt i'll play it.
Dallas @ Washington +5 washington probably had the third biggest meltdown of the week. i thought that line was inflated but i didn't expect washington to be up 17-0. and then needed a classic backdoor cover to cover. crazy game. washington might be decent on offense if they can put up 400 yards against philly on the road. or maybe philly just needed a half to get going and washington didn't do sh*t after that except in garbage time on the last drive. hard to say. defensively, they have a very good DL but the secondary was a mess once philly started playing. so, i'm not sure what to make of washington. dallas played well and definitely has better offensive coaching but the giants are trash so i'm not giving them much credit either. this should be tougher being on the road and against what should be a better defense. if the secondary plays much better, i think washington can win. i'll say 4. it's 5. not a bad place for a home dog bet here.
NE @ Miami +19 not even going to spend time on this one. NE can name the score. who is going to bet miami here? they are unbettable until further notice. i'll say 17.5. it's 19. sure, why not. i doubt i'll play it.
Dallas @ Washington +5 washington probably had the third biggest meltdown of the week. i thought that line was inflated but i didn't expect washington to be up 17-0. and then needed a classic backdoor cover to cover. crazy game. washington might be decent on offense if they can put up 400 yards against philly on the road. or maybe philly just needed a half to get going and washington didn't do sh*t after that except in garbage time on the last drive. hard to say. defensively, they have a very good DL but the secondary was a mess once philly started playing. so, i'm not sure what to make of washington. dallas played well and definitely has better offensive coaching but the giants are trash so i'm not giving them much credit either. this should be tougher being on the road and against what should be a better defense. if the secondary plays much better, i think washington can win. i'll say 4. it's 5. not a bad place for a home dog bet here.
Jax @ Houston -9 Jax went from being a possible favorite to win the division to the season being over in one half. first, on defense, i'm not concerned about them getting torched by KC. as i said before, if there is one unit on one team that can come into the season in mid-season form, it will be the KC offense. and they did. even the NE offense had some question with gonkowski out and brady a year older. but there are no flaws in this offense. you'd like to see the jax defense do better but facing this offense in week one is as tough as it gets. i think the defense will be fine. the offense, on the other hand, is in big trouble. that cashew guy did well but that was againat the KC shite defense at home in the extreme heat and KC had the lead. that's about as easy as it gets coming into a game. can he go on the road and do well for a full game against a division rival? that's a different question. fortunately for him, the houston secondary is trash. so, if he is any good, he should be ok here. houston's offense looked great last night, despite horrific coaching. but, their big problem is their OL and if the saints can sack watson 6 times, what can the jax DL do? so, houston has major issues with the OL and secondary. that's particularly good for jax as they have a stronfg DL and a new QB. but can cashew keep up with watson and hopkins when watson has time, which happens a lot since he's so mobile? that's a tough question. it all depends on the line here. if this is inflated due to the new QB, then jax is the play. if this is to low because cashew played well against KC, then maybe houston is the play. it's a tough one to predict but i'll say it should be 6. wow, 9. well, that answers that. lean to Jax.
Jax @ Houston -9 Jax went from being a possible favorite to win the division to the season being over in one half. first, on defense, i'm not concerned about them getting torched by KC. as i said before, if there is one unit on one team that can come into the season in mid-season form, it will be the KC offense. and they did. even the NE offense had some question with gonkowski out and brady a year older. but there are no flaws in this offense. you'd like to see the jax defense do better but facing this offense in week one is as tough as it gets. i think the defense will be fine. the offense, on the other hand, is in big trouble. that cashew guy did well but that was againat the KC shite defense at home in the extreme heat and KC had the lead. that's about as easy as it gets coming into a game. can he go on the road and do well for a full game against a division rival? that's a different question. fortunately for him, the houston secondary is trash. so, if he is any good, he should be ok here. houston's offense looked great last night, despite horrific coaching. but, their big problem is their OL and if the saints can sack watson 6 times, what can the jax DL do? so, houston has major issues with the OL and secondary. that's particularly good for jax as they have a stronfg DL and a new QB. but can cashew keep up with watson and hopkins when watson has time, which happens a lot since he's so mobile? that's a tough question. it all depends on the line here. if this is inflated due to the new QB, then jax is the play. if this is to low because cashew played well against KC, then maybe houston is the play. it's a tough one to predict but i'll say it should be 6. wow, 9. well, that answers that. lean to Jax.
Seattle @ Pitt -4 i said seattle was overrated and the line was inflated last week and seattle responded appropriately. they struggled to beat cincy. i say because they aren't that good and cincy isn't that bad. and now they fly across the country to play a pretty good pitt team that mailed it in last week. you have to figure pitt will be different this week. they can't start the season 0-2 as favorites and expect to compete for this division. i'll write that one off completely. they just weren't into it and the gameplan was a joke. they should win this one. seattle's defense isn't what it was. dalton carved them up and they almost doubled seattle in yardage. pitt's offense is obviously better than cincy's. seattle's offense has issues too although pitt's defense shouldn't scare anyone. i only fear this line will be inflated after seattle struggled last week and people expect a bounceback for pitt. i like pitt to win but i don't like giving a lot of points with bad defenses. i'll say 5. ok 4. not too bad. lean to pitt.
SF @ Cincy -1 SF didn't exactly impress last weekend. pretty mediocre offensive numbers against a bad defense plus the benefit of four turnovers. if they do that against cincy the way cincy played last week, SF loses by 7 or more. but i like SF's coaching and their defense played better than expected so i won't assume anything from last week's below average performance. they should play better here. the question is whether cincy is really a decent team or last week was just an aberration. if they are decent, they should really put up points against this defense. and maybe their defense can play well again and force SF into mistakes which they are prone to. i'll side with cincy for now as i predicted a better than expected season and they proved me right at least for one week. cincy is in the same ballpark as tampa. that was a pick last tuesday. i'll say cincy -1. and that's what it is. lean to cincy.
Seattle @ Pitt -4 i said seattle was overrated and the line was inflated last week and seattle responded appropriately. they struggled to beat cincy. i say because they aren't that good and cincy isn't that bad. and now they fly across the country to play a pretty good pitt team that mailed it in last week. you have to figure pitt will be different this week. they can't start the season 0-2 as favorites and expect to compete for this division. i'll write that one off completely. they just weren't into it and the gameplan was a joke. they should win this one. seattle's defense isn't what it was. dalton carved them up and they almost doubled seattle in yardage. pitt's offense is obviously better than cincy's. seattle's offense has issues too although pitt's defense shouldn't scare anyone. i only fear this line will be inflated after seattle struggled last week and people expect a bounceback for pitt. i like pitt to win but i don't like giving a lot of points with bad defenses. i'll say 5. ok 4. not too bad. lean to pitt.
SF @ Cincy -1 SF didn't exactly impress last weekend. pretty mediocre offensive numbers against a bad defense plus the benefit of four turnovers. if they do that against cincy the way cincy played last week, SF loses by 7 or more. but i like SF's coaching and their defense played better than expected so i won't assume anything from last week's below average performance. they should play better here. the question is whether cincy is really a decent team or last week was just an aberration. if they are decent, they should really put up points against this defense. and maybe their defense can play well again and force SF into mistakes which they are prone to. i'll side with cincy for now as i predicted a better than expected season and they proved me right at least for one week. cincy is in the same ballpark as tampa. that was a pick last tuesday. i'll say cincy -1. and that's what it is. lean to cincy.
Minn @ GB -2.5 so cousins threw the ball 10 times for 98 yards and they basically win the game 28-0 until garbage time. how does that happen? did they rush for 300 yards? i can't tell if that's just really good by minn or atlanta was that pathetic and didn't bother to show up in week one like pitt. we'll find out here because GB looks like they are for real as expected. GB looks like they have a defense, basically shitting down any run game by chicago. i'm going to stick with my opinion about minnesota that they are good, but not one of the top teams yet. and i'll say GB is a little bit better with a real defense and rodgers. GB being at home, i say they win this one and as long as the line is 3 or less, as it should be, that's the side i'd look at. i'll say 2.5 since minnesota did so well in week one but 3 is probably a better line. it's on the verge of 2.5/3 so it's right where it should be. this comes down to what you trust. both teams had big wins last week. who do you think is more legitimate? i'll say GB and lean to them.
KC @ Oakland +8 i watched about 3 quarters last night and was impressed by oakland although i think that was more enthusiasm from a MNF home game to open the season and getting rid of brown. i don't think this team is very good. and denver is pretty inept. that being said, carr can be good and they've always had the ability to score at times. with KC coming off a big game on the east coast in the heat and now going to the west coast for a game they know they can win, this is a decent spot for oakland if they can get enough points. i'll say 10. only 8. that's interesting. hard to justify taking an 8 point road favorite but if denver was -2.5 last week, i'd expect this to be higher after the way KC looked against jax. i guess i'll lean to KC for the second week in a row as a road favorite.
Minn @ GB -2.5 so cousins threw the ball 10 times for 98 yards and they basically win the game 28-0 until garbage time. how does that happen? did they rush for 300 yards? i can't tell if that's just really good by minn or atlanta was that pathetic and didn't bother to show up in week one like pitt. we'll find out here because GB looks like they are for real as expected. GB looks like they have a defense, basically shitting down any run game by chicago. i'm going to stick with my opinion about minnesota that they are good, but not one of the top teams yet. and i'll say GB is a little bit better with a real defense and rodgers. GB being at home, i say they win this one and as long as the line is 3 or less, as it should be, that's the side i'd look at. i'll say 2.5 since minnesota did so well in week one but 3 is probably a better line. it's on the verge of 2.5/3 so it's right where it should be. this comes down to what you trust. both teams had big wins last week. who do you think is more legitimate? i'll say GB and lean to them.
KC @ Oakland +8 i watched about 3 quarters last night and was impressed by oakland although i think that was more enthusiasm from a MNF home game to open the season and getting rid of brown. i don't think this team is very good. and denver is pretty inept. that being said, carr can be good and they've always had the ability to score at times. with KC coming off a big game on the east coast in the heat and now going to the west coast for a game they know they can win, this is a decent spot for oakland if they can get enough points. i'll say 10. only 8. that's interesting. hard to justify taking an 8 point road favorite but if denver was -2.5 last week, i'd expect this to be higher after the way KC looked against jax. i guess i'll lean to KC for the second week in a row as a road favorite.
NO @ Rams -2.5 one of the best games of the season for sure last night but more importantly, i think we were right about NO. that defense is suspect so when they are giving a lot of points against a good offense, that's dangerous. sure, they will light up teams at home and the score will get out of reach, but that defense looks like the old NO defenses that couldn't get stops. 400+ yards and watson did pretty much whatever he wanted as long as didn't kill the play. so, this will be a tough one for NO going on the road and playing a better offense. there's that plus the rams defense did pretty well for the most part in a tough road game last week. so, coming off a crazy win and taking a questionable defense on the road to play a better team is a tough situation for NO this week. i don't want to give more than 3 here, but i'd lean to the rams at 3 or less. i'll guess 3. it's 2.5 now. lean to the rams at 3 or less.
Chicago @ Denver +2.5 two teams coming off of terrible games. denver isn't good but they are better than that. they should do much better at home here. did chubb and miller even play last night. carr hardly throws an incomplete pass and isn't sacked once. and fangio is supposed to be a defensive genius. obviously, that needs to get better immediately. and if they actually play defense this week and they can pressure trubisky, denver can win this game. denver's offense isn't too good, but it isn't terrible. chciago's offense might even be worse. so denver at home, if their defense actually coems to play might make for a good home dog here. i'll say chicago -2. it's 2.5. lean to denver.
NO @ Rams -2.5 one of the best games of the season for sure last night but more importantly, i think we were right about NO. that defense is suspect so when they are giving a lot of points against a good offense, that's dangerous. sure, they will light up teams at home and the score will get out of reach, but that defense looks like the old NO defenses that couldn't get stops. 400+ yards and watson did pretty much whatever he wanted as long as didn't kill the play. so, this will be a tough one for NO going on the road and playing a better offense. there's that plus the rams defense did pretty well for the most part in a tough road game last week. so, coming off a crazy win and taking a questionable defense on the road to play a better team is a tough situation for NO this week. i don't want to give more than 3 here, but i'd lean to the rams at 3 or less. i'll guess 3. it's 2.5 now. lean to the rams at 3 or less.
Chicago @ Denver +2.5 two teams coming off of terrible games. denver isn't good but they are better than that. they should do much better at home here. did chubb and miller even play last night. carr hardly throws an incomplete pass and isn't sacked once. and fangio is supposed to be a defensive genius. obviously, that needs to get better immediately. and if they actually play defense this week and they can pressure trubisky, denver can win this game. denver's offense isn't too good, but it isn't terrible. chciago's offense might even be worse. so denver at home, if their defense actually coems to play might make for a good home dog here. i'll say chicago -2. it's 2.5. lean to denver.
Philly @ Atlanta +1.5 two teams that played maybe the strangest games last week. philly because they were down 17-0 before they decided to show up. atlanta because they never showed up. everyone knew minn gameplan was to run the ball. did atl not know or did they just not know how to do anything about it? anyway, atl can't be that bad so i'll just ignore that game. expect a better performance here. but philly is very good so it's a long way from basically getting embarrassed to beating a team like this. and philly won't be taking anything for granted after such a bad start last week. i want to take atl here. i wish this was in philly so we could get a lot of points. maybe philly is favored but i suspect atl will have to win to cover. i'll guess eve. philly is -1.5. i like betting good teams in week two that were horrible in week one. so that would be atlanta and pitt for sure. but can atl go from that performance to beating possibly the best team in the conference? tough call. no opinion yet.
Cleveland @ NYJ +2.5/3 this was the biggest meltdown of the week. you can argue detroit but NYJ were at home with a 16 point lead pretty late in the game and gave it up to a team with a terrible offense. that's pretty bad. even worse, they got 4 turnovers and an INT for a touchdown and still scored 16 points and lost. that's not easy to do. i said the jets were overrated with all this love for darnold. they can't be this bad though. cleveland was also way overrated. and they can't be as bad as they were against TN. so, a pretty interesting matchup here. two overrated teams who actually played a lot worse than those of us who knew they ere overrated expected. so who bounces back here? cleveland is the better team and it shouldn't be close. i don't think they are well coached and their OL has issues but they are still a good team. the jets aren't. nothing would surprise me here, but both teams should be better and i'd just go with the better team. i'd expect a line of 3.5. it's only 2.5/3. not sure what people are seeing in the jets but at 2.5, i'd lean to cleveland.
ok, i think that's it. i only see one inflated line, which surprises me for week two. i actually see a few lines that are too low. then again, i can't win betting favorites so i'm not as excited by those. i'm going to look around and see what i can get jax at.
Philly @ Atlanta +1.5 two teams that played maybe the strangest games last week. philly because they were down 17-0 before they decided to show up. atlanta because they never showed up. everyone knew minn gameplan was to run the ball. did atl not know or did they just not know how to do anything about it? anyway, atl can't be that bad so i'll just ignore that game. expect a better performance here. but philly is very good so it's a long way from basically getting embarrassed to beating a team like this. and philly won't be taking anything for granted after such a bad start last week. i want to take atl here. i wish this was in philly so we could get a lot of points. maybe philly is favored but i suspect atl will have to win to cover. i'll guess eve. philly is -1.5. i like betting good teams in week two that were horrible in week one. so that would be atlanta and pitt for sure. but can atl go from that performance to beating possibly the best team in the conference? tough call. no opinion yet.
Cleveland @ NYJ +2.5/3 this was the biggest meltdown of the week. you can argue detroit but NYJ were at home with a 16 point lead pretty late in the game and gave it up to a team with a terrible offense. that's pretty bad. even worse, they got 4 turnovers and an INT for a touchdown and still scored 16 points and lost. that's not easy to do. i said the jets were overrated with all this love for darnold. they can't be this bad though. cleveland was also way overrated. and they can't be as bad as they were against TN. so, a pretty interesting matchup here. two overrated teams who actually played a lot worse than those of us who knew they ere overrated expected. so who bounces back here? cleveland is the better team and it shouldn't be close. i don't think they are well coached and their OL has issues but they are still a good team. the jets aren't. nothing would surprise me here, but both teams should be better and i'd just go with the better team. i'd expect a line of 3.5. it's only 2.5/3. not sure what people are seeing in the jets but at 2.5, i'd lean to cleveland.
ok, i think that's it. i only see one inflated line, which surprises me for week two. i actually see a few lines that are too low. then again, i can't win betting favorites so i'm not as excited by those. i'm going to look around and see what i can get jax at.
On 9/8/19 at 8:26 am betonline opened em at -3.5(obviously before the aftermath) so they stuck with the look ahead and took the chance to open early(as they often do) At 7:12pm re opened at minus -9, then it took only 6 minutes to move to -8.5.
5dimes -10 with no movement but they're offering +110 for takers.
On 9/8/19 at 8:26 am betonline opened em at -3.5(obviously before the aftermath) so they stuck with the look ahead and took the chance to open early(as they often do) At 7:12pm re opened at minus -9, then it took only 6 minutes to move to -8.5.
5dimes -10 with no movement but they're offering +110 for takers.
Jets could be missing 2 of their best defensive players on Sunday which helps Cle rebound offensively. I know most will be betting the Browns in a bounce back spot here so if you like them, its prolly smart to take it now
Jets could be missing 2 of their best defensive players on Sunday which helps Cle rebound offensively. I know most will be betting the Browns in a bounce back spot here so if you like them, its prolly smart to take it now
Pinnacle lines have been out since late Sunday and Monday for me....you may want to check into that
i don't know what the hell the problem is but when i go to pinnacle now, it only has 8 lines up, from tampa through jax. same as last tuesday. maybe it's my computer or browser. or user error. anyway, i'll just go to another site. not a big del for what i' using it for today.
Pinnacle lines have been out since late Sunday and Monday for me....you may want to check into that
i don't know what the hell the problem is but when i go to pinnacle now, it only has 8 lines up, from tampa through jax. same as last tuesday. maybe it's my computer or browser. or user error. anyway, i'll just go to another site. not a big del for what i' using it for today.
Jets could be missing 2 of their best defensive players on Sunday which helps Cle rebound offensively. I know most will be betting the Browns in a bounce back spot here so if you like them, its prolly smart to take it now
another road favorite. and in a bounceback spot when bounce backs are never guaranteed. i might take it but i'm not too excited about it right now.
Jets could be missing 2 of their best defensive players on Sunday which helps Cle rebound offensively. I know most will be betting the Browns in a bounce back spot here so if you like them, its prolly smart to take it now
another road favorite. and in a bounceback spot when bounce backs are never guaranteed. i might take it but i'm not too excited about it right now.
i don't know what the hell the problem is but when i go to pinnacle now, it only has 8 lines up, from tampa through jax. same as last tuesday. maybe it's my computer or browser. or user error. anyway, i'll just go to another site. not a big del for what i' using it for today.
Tinfoils was having the same problem in Mlb when they updated a week or so ago …..Fucked up
i don't know what the hell the problem is but when i go to pinnacle now, it only has 8 lines up, from tampa through jax. same as last tuesday. maybe it's my computer or browser. or user error. anyway, i'll just go to another site. not a big del for what i' using it for today.
Tinfoils was having the same problem in Mlb when they updated a week or so ago …..Fucked up
Will you guys please stop referring to our starting QB as "that cashew guy?"
It's Minshew. Not corkscrew, not mole shrew, not dipping chew, not cashew. Minshew. He sports one hell of a 1970's porn stache. I suspect he owns a pair of jean shorts, a Farrah Fawcett poster, and listens to the Bee Gees. That doesn't make him "that cashew guy."
Will you guys please stop referring to our starting QB as "that cashew guy?"
It's Minshew. Not corkscrew, not mole shrew, not dipping chew, not cashew. Minshew. He sports one hell of a 1970's porn stache. I suspect he owns a pair of jean shorts, a Farrah Fawcett poster, and listens to the Bee Gees. That doesn't make him "that cashew guy."
i'm going to go ahead with an early play on the cashews. remember, early plays just mean i think the line is off by a couple of points or a key point and i see why but i don't agree with it (if i have no idea why, then i just avoid it, or try to). however, i don't always keep it as i might decide i just don't like the side later. transitioning from my leans on tuesday to my actual plays on sunday is always the hardest part. so, i might buy out. obviously, the danger is the line moving against me, and that's always possible, but it's rarely happened. and a good number of times we get a nice move our way and there is a middle opportunity or just a really good line. anyway, jax is a play for now.
i'm going to go ahead with an early play on the cashews. remember, early plays just mean i think the line is off by a couple of points or a key point and i see why but i don't agree with it (if i have no idea why, then i just avoid it, or try to). however, i don't always keep it as i might decide i just don't like the side later. transitioning from my leans on tuesday to my actual plays on sunday is always the hardest part. so, i might buy out. obviously, the danger is the line moving against me, and that's always possible, but it's rarely happened. and a good number of times we get a nice move our way and there is a middle opportunity or just a really good line. anyway, jax is a play for now.
Y'all are geniuses, so will try to chime in only rarely where I might have something of substance. But, read all the time, thanks!!!
BigD - thanks for the shortest FG prop idea - seems to be one that might be good before books adjust juice enough.
Some comments:
1. I am idiot - I was HIGH on DEN before season (I guess I am still wrongly enamored by Flacco). But, doesn't CHI benefit HUGELY from THU game vs MNF game. Super extra rest. Also, CHI had high expectations - can't start 0-2 here, where DEN wasn't going to be Super Bowl bound in any scenario. Both teams have familiarity (Fangio) and DEN benefits from teams early in season struggle more in high air (conditioning not yet mid season form, besides KC offense as CDS points out). But, I think CHI wins this game WAY more than 60% of time - and ML is -145/-150 I think so 60% is boundary if you get bad ML. Hard for me to think CHI doesn't go 10-6 if they got to play DEN every game with 4 extra rest days to prep for it (and DEN on short rest). (And I am LOW on CHI this year but seems like good spot). Like CLE ML here too (or the points).
I know, I know - as CDS says the short favorites on road SUCK LONG TERM. Maybe I am the fish but these 2 public sides seem tasty.
2. CLE narrative is partly 3 INTs by Baker. I do NOT like CLE. Over-rated. But, his 3 INTs all in 4Q when they were down 2 scores. That's when you need QB to be aggessive - so I (kind of) downgrade the "badness" of 3 INTs. (My English is "badness" now I know, sorry word choice part of brain shut off right now).
Y'all are geniuses, so will try to chime in only rarely where I might have something of substance. But, read all the time, thanks!!!
BigD - thanks for the shortest FG prop idea - seems to be one that might be good before books adjust juice enough.
Some comments:
1. I am idiot - I was HIGH on DEN before season (I guess I am still wrongly enamored by Flacco). But, doesn't CHI benefit HUGELY from THU game vs MNF game. Super extra rest. Also, CHI had high expectations - can't start 0-2 here, where DEN wasn't going to be Super Bowl bound in any scenario. Both teams have familiarity (Fangio) and DEN benefits from teams early in season struggle more in high air (conditioning not yet mid season form, besides KC offense as CDS points out). But, I think CHI wins this game WAY more than 60% of time - and ML is -145/-150 I think so 60% is boundary if you get bad ML. Hard for me to think CHI doesn't go 10-6 if they got to play DEN every game with 4 extra rest days to prep for it (and DEN on short rest). (And I am LOW on CHI this year but seems like good spot). Like CLE ML here too (or the points).
I know, I know - as CDS says the short favorites on road SUCK LONG TERM. Maybe I am the fish but these 2 public sides seem tasty.
2. CLE narrative is partly 3 INTs by Baker. I do NOT like CLE. Over-rated. But, his 3 INTs all in 4Q when they were down 2 scores. That's when you need QB to be aggessive - so I (kind of) downgrade the "badness" of 3 INTs. (My English is "badness" now I know, sorry word choice part of brain shut off right now).
1. The Bears travel to Denver to encounter Vic Fangio who led their defense the past 4 years. If you think Green Bay had Trubisky figured out, imagine what Denver might be able to do.
2. New Orleans in a revenge spot at the Rams trying to prove they would have been the better match for the Patriots in last year's Super Bowl.
3. NE goes to Miami to visit Brian Flores who was on Belichick's staff for 14 years. Belly is brutally honest, but he respects the guys who have served him. The Pats won't roast the Dolphins if they can help it.
1. The Bears travel to Denver to encounter Vic Fangio who led their defense the past 4 years. If you think Green Bay had Trubisky figured out, imagine what Denver might be able to do.
2. New Orleans in a revenge spot at the Rams trying to prove they would have been the better match for the Patriots in last year's Super Bowl.
3. NE goes to Miami to visit Brian Flores who was on Belichick's staff for 14 years. Belly is brutally honest, but he respects the guys who have served him. The Pats won't roast the Dolphins if they can help it.
kvs, we're all just trying to figure this out like everyone else.
i agree with most of that. after losing at home to GB, chicago needs this win. going 0-2 (after a home game and a game against a weak team) when either minn or GB will be 2-0 is a problem. and chicago is the better team. and the extra rest helps. but, much of that is countered by the fangio factor plus the fact that trubisky looked really bad and now plays on the road against a defensive coach with two of the better defensive linemen in the league coming off an embarrassing performance. plus, the trip to oakland isn't too bad adn that wasn't a particularly physical matchup. fangio should have them fired up for this one if he's a decent coach. chicago should win, but i don't like the situation for them.
as for cleveland, unless we're all wrong and they are trash again this season (which is possible), they will win that game. if i had to bet chicago or cleveland, i'd bet cleveland, but remember, i'm the worst at picking favorites.
kvs, we're all just trying to figure this out like everyone else.
i agree with most of that. after losing at home to GB, chicago needs this win. going 0-2 (after a home game and a game against a weak team) when either minn or GB will be 2-0 is a problem. and chicago is the better team. and the extra rest helps. but, much of that is countered by the fangio factor plus the fact that trubisky looked really bad and now plays on the road against a defensive coach with two of the better defensive linemen in the league coming off an embarrassing performance. plus, the trip to oakland isn't too bad adn that wasn't a particularly physical matchup. fangio should have them fired up for this one if he's a decent coach. chicago should win, but i don't like the situation for them.
as for cleveland, unless we're all wrong and they are trash again this season (which is possible), they will win that game. if i had to bet chicago or cleveland, i'd bet cleveland, but remember, i'm the worst at picking favorites.
A few interesting twists for this week : 1. The Bears travel to Denver to encounter Vic Fangio who led their defense the past 4 years. If you think Green Bay had Trubisky figured out, imagine what Denver might be able to do. 2. New Orleans in a revenge spot at the Rams trying to prove they would have been the better match for the Patriots in last year's Super Bowl. 3. NE goes to Miami to visit Brian Flores who was on Belichick's staff for 14 years. Belly is brutally honest, but he respects the guys who have served him. The Pats won't roast the Dolphins if they can help it.
i think it's a tough spot for NO after that crazy game last night, short week, travel all the way to LA to step up in competition on grass. but ultimately, i'd say the defense that plays better will win. not knowing who that will be, i lean to the rams just because i like the situation better for them and if i can get them at home at 3 or less against what i think is a weaker team, i have to look at it.
A few interesting twists for this week : 1. The Bears travel to Denver to encounter Vic Fangio who led their defense the past 4 years. If you think Green Bay had Trubisky figured out, imagine what Denver might be able to do. 2. New Orleans in a revenge spot at the Rams trying to prove they would have been the better match for the Patriots in last year's Super Bowl. 3. NE goes to Miami to visit Brian Flores who was on Belichick's staff for 14 years. Belly is brutally honest, but he respects the guys who have served him. The Pats won't roast the Dolphins if they can help it.
i think it's a tough spot for NO after that crazy game last night, short week, travel all the way to LA to step up in competition on grass. but ultimately, i'd say the defense that plays better will win. not knowing who that will be, i lean to the rams just because i like the situation better for them and if i can get them at home at 3 or less against what i think is a weaker team, i have to look at it.
I'll be riding "That CASHEW guy" with you soon CD. The line popped to me when I saw +8.5 this morning. I texted my buddy immediately "no way jax should be a dog of over a td to Houston" Will look at just a few things before paralysis by analysis kicks in.
I'll be riding "That CASHEW guy" with you soon CD. The line popped to me when I saw +8.5 this morning. I texted my buddy immediately "no way jax should be a dog of over a td to Houston" Will look at just a few things before paralysis by analysis kicks in.
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